I’m not guessing. My positions are based on math. I also have close to 4K tracked hours winning just over 10BB/h. I can use statistics to estimate the probability that that result was due to luck, and it’s effectively zero.

If I play 1|2 I am the best player in my pool, but that’s not saying much. 1|2 is a joke. At 2|5 I know players who are better than me so I’m probably not even top 3, but it’s a large room so I’m usually the best player at the table at least.

I remember in an old room a few years back, talking with some of the older regs about poker in the older days (early 2000s for them). They would talk about larger games (often mid-stakes limit games) that were obviously much softer than games today, and even if they could be exaggerating their success I can believe they were winners back then. After all they are still playing today.

I'm not convinced they were better than breakeven now in low-stakes NL games, because there would be multiple players like them at any given table and they weren't particularly strong.

So the moral of the story is... maybe tomorrow's losing regs are today's winning regs

First month coming back to poker after a long absence. 10 sessions, 47.5 hours played. +$870 in profit. Felt like I donked off a pile of money just making bluffs when ahead big so I could try and lose the nervousness of bluffing big pots. My last 2 sessions of the month had 3 really terrible beats (losing set vs overpair twice and losing KK vs 88 preflop) and I still ended up slightly ahead for those sessions.

So I agree with you about that statement being wrong, but I think people underestimate the cost of rake.

I've played 100 hours (lol sample size) of non raked home games. I'm averaging $42/hour which includes 15 hours at 0.25/0.50 game ($100 profit). I have ran good , but I have also lost some stacks in coolers and run bad. I don't think this is my actual win rate but I wouldn't be shocked at $30-$35/hr in this non raked 1/2 game.

Obviously, you will make more money in a non raked game than a raked game. A considerable amount more.

Slightly off topic but relevant to BR management-

Currently in the middle of the biggest downswing of my poker career. Been playing seriously (studying/tracking) for about 7 years and played 7 years or so before that not so seriously lol.

Anyways...I'm down about $4k right now for 2019 over about 50hrs at 1/2 $500max game. Sample size is quite small I realize. Just saying in 7 years I've never gone through a stretch like this where 90% of the time I sit down to play I'm losing 50-200bbs. Variance really does go both ways.

Yes I admit i'm not playing my A+ game due to all the frustration. That's one reason my sample size is so small; I had to pump the brakes and not play as much. Also worth noting that I was transitioning to 2/5 before this started. Moved down to 1/2 to regather confidence and BR and here I am getting destroyed at the smaller stake.

For all of you young bucks out there getting into the game, currently printing money, thinking wow this is so easy, remember that it's not going to last. You will get beaten down, and beaten down further than you ever thought was possible. Bankroll Management folks! Peace.

Down $4k over 50 hours at 1/2? You've got bigger problems on your hands than variance.

And you're admittedly playing subpar? Pumping the brakes with less than 50 hours of play? If you're a winning player and are at all invested in your poker results/income, you would just put in more volume (both on and off the tables).

1/2 and 2/5 are both "Wow this is so easy" games.

Your post doesn't have much to do with bankroll management and more to do with tilt/mental game/and just venting your beat to us.

Ahh I just did my accounting and realized I was counting some losses from 2/5 before moving back to 1/2. You're right, 4k over 50hrs at 1/2 would be very problematic. I'm glad I brought this up and checked cuz it isn't that bad. I'm actually down about $1k over 50hrs at 1/2. Sorry for the confusion and sorry for going off topic on a downswing rant.

Meh, $4k over 50 hours is pretty intense, but seems plausible in a 500 cap game. People underestimate just how bad it's possible to run. IMO you're actually lucky if you go several thousand hours without a 2000BB downswing, even in a 100BB cap game.

According to some quick-math, -$4k in 50 hours is approximately a 1/5000 chance for a player with a win-rate of $20/h and a SD of $200/h (roughly my stats at 1|2)

A +-$1k variation at a $1/2 game is just completely natural noise. That's like 3-4 hands going the wrong way.

When you plot results you can see that pretty easily, even if the overall trend is still up.

I mean, if skill and bankroll weren’t issues I’d be playing the nosebleeds in Bobby’s Room

although if skill and physical ability weren’t issues I’d probably still be in the NFL

Since our rake structure changed, I’m running at over $60 an hour from my last 900 hours now at games that are 10% to $15 per pot. (No tips allowed)

That is about 75% at a 2/5/10 1k buy in and the rest at 2/3 500 buy in

I’m not a pro and consider myself a decent but flawed unimaginative and nitty (ish) reg or good rec

That's no worse than $2 drop + $5 once you factor in no income tax and significantly better factoring in free health insurance, so personally I'd take Canadian high rake games all day over Florida high rake games. Assuming you had equal access to higher stakes games. Which you don't. That's what really sucks about your room IMO.

There ultimately is no line in the sand. Estimate how much other players are losing in BB/hr and compare to how much rake is taken off in BB/hr. If you have a couple spewtards even ridic rake structures like Crowne are super beatable. If it's a bunch of nits not so much.

-4k in 50 hours is easily possible for a winning player. I've gone -3k in less than that winning ~ 12BB/hr in 1/2. I've had multiple nights where I lost 2k due to pure runbad. In 1/2 games. It really depends how you play and how your player pool is. If you nit it up it's less likely to happen. If you fire lots of big bluffs, stack off relatively light, etc., swings are bigger.

Granted the probability of running that bad over 50 hours is very low, but what people seem not to consider is

A) You have tons of 50 hour stretches over 7 years, presumably. Typical player playing 1k hours a year would have 140 such 50 hour stretches.

B) There is a sampling bias when we look at results posted online due to observation selection effects, namely that people with unusually good or bad results are more likely to post them. Even if we say "odds of that happening are 1/x with x super low", are we taking into account just how many people play poker, and that it's the ones with more extreme results who are more likely to post in this thread?

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As for your last statement his post has more to do with tilt/mental game/etc. that may or may not be true and he could well be spewing, but the knee-jerk reaction that running bad = playing bad is just false.

Anyone here file taxes for poker income before? Do I just include it as additional income in schedule 1?

Yup, on line 21, AFAIK.

Ironically, I found this post while taking a break in doing my taxes

Fish itt

Hi all,

I play recreationally so forgive me. I usually have on hand about 5 buy ins at all times

Whenever I get significant over that I deposit it at the bank...

Question is is this normal?

Sometimes I go every other month and last month I had a 5k deposit

Is this okay?

Open a retirement account and put it there. Up to $5,500 ($6,000 starting this year) is tax deductible.

That's what I did.

I don't carry more than $600 on me (plus whatever I win, on the way home) in one session.

I do that already but I mean I just go to a regular bank now. So far it’s been okay

Bad idea unless you are over 59.5 years old. If it's your bankroll then accessing it will get you charged taxes and fees for early withdrawal.

Does your casino have player's banks? I just keep my poker money on deposit at the casino.

You've got a ton of experience so this may not be applicable or may be something you've already considered but, maybe moving down has infected you with an irreverence for the money causing you to tilt from the loose/tight and passive/aggressive standards you know to be correct. Or, a desire(which, like fear, is the mind killer) to make your money back quickly so you can get on to surpassing new milestones in your journey has infected you with can't-win-by-folding syndrome or some similar ailment.

I think, if you play a morning game with omc's, you can just keep tightening up until you start printing money, find your footing, gain your confidence and then have the balance to open up your game again.

Yeah, I can really see this being the case.

I would guess that if you took any reg in my room and stuck them with 9 random people off the street in a poker game, that the reg would destroy that game long term. But overall that reg is likely a long term loser in the poker room, mostly because he and the other regs are devoured by rake, and only the small percentage at the top come out winners.

Gjustspitballin',couldbewrongG

It is probably fine unless you get audited. Then, it's probably bad.

In our state, it is very rough to claim your recreational winnings because you are taxed on gross, not net, winnings. Unless it's your profession.

I may or may not use cash for things like groceries, car repairs, home repairs/remodels, or other such things where you may be able to spend a significant amount and cash is practical. Idk how it would work if you began playing 5/T plo and started raking tho.