Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I also tell Mike this when he does his all-in EV calcs, but these don't tell the whole story of how well or bad you're running (only part of the story).
For example, you got AA vs QQ. That's running well.
For example, how many times were you able to get the money in as a massive fave against a fish (as opposed to a solid player). Again, that's running well.
And one of the few things I confirmed from my setmining project: sets lose at a decent clip (about 20% of the sets I saw tabled lost the hand), and of course when you lose with a set you typically lose your stack (and this isn't factored into the overall profitability of setmining nearly enough, imo). Heck, even flopping a set against an overpair you'll still lose by the river about 10% of the time (counting the times he oversets you by then or runner runners a flush/straight). Flopping a set doesn't entitle you to the pot.
Gall-inEVisonlypartofthestoryofhowyou'rerunningG
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
The point is if you got AA vs. KK ten times in one session and lost 3/10 instead of 2/10 you’d be saying “gosh how bad do I run to lose 3/10 times there” rather than recognizing how insanely hot you are running to even be in that position.
That’s why I laugh whenever mike brings up his All-In EV nonsense, ignoring the irony that for someone who claims not to understand poker math he thinks he can calculate that number even if he can’t see his opponent’s cards and certainly doesn’t know what his range is in that spot (arguably more important).
I can understand your point, I don't see myself 100% agree with it.
For instance,
I played a 4.5 hours session maybe a month ago, I have AA 3 times in 2-5 table.
First 2, I raise preflop for $20, everyone fold, and I make $7 each.
The 3rd time, I straddle utg with AAh, fold all the way to sb raise to 35 (with only 400ish stack), bb fold, I just call. Flop J97hh, he bet 40, I call. Turn 4o, he bet 100, I push him allin, he call with his last $250 more. River is 8, he shows KTo river a straight.
I had AA 3 times in less than 150 hands for the entire session, this is really run well, but really won the minimum, and lost the max for all my AA. I don't see myself make any bad decision unless result oriented. How do you think about this session, do I run well or bad?