[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 539 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.33%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.59%

5-7.5

8 10.13%

7.5-10

15 18.99%

10+

27 34.18%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 22.78%

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02-15-2016 , 03:16 PM

#13451

daniel9861

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

I thought it's pretty clear.

Here is the original argument:

If the game was 3/5 with 100bb, now with straddle, it is 5/10 with 50bb.

Players remain the same, 3/5 players, and now they're playing 5/10.

If we are a winner at 8bb/hr playing 100bb 3/5, can we not expect to win 4bb+ playing 50bb at 5/10 with 3/5 players?

If not, then doesn't it also mean that anyone who ever shottakes with less than 100bb is -EV?

Oh so you were just supporting my argument with an example? With the argument being a person who has an 8bb/hr winrate playing 100bb 3/5 would most likely have a winrate of 4bb+ playing 50bb @ 5/10 with the same 3/5 players? I just assumed it was a lead up for a counter argument...

Quote

02-15-2016 , 03:17 PM

#13452

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead

Interesting to start looking at my results in chunks of time as I work to improve my game.

Most recent 440 hours
Cashed 37/54 for 68%
BB/hour 10.69
St dev 32.27 bb/hour

Most recent 329
29/41 for 70%
BB/hour 12.73
Std dev 32.18 bb/hour

Most recent 209 hours
19/24 for 79%
BB/hour 17.27
Std dev 23.53 bb/hour

So, am I a fish on a heater, am I getting better or are they getting worse?

Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums

To get a hourly stddev that low, I'm guessing some of your villains consistently table their hand prior to river action.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 03:34 PM

#13453

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

I think the argument for a straddle has to be considered in terms of $ and not BB. In my experience, the BTN straddle is creating bigger pots in absolute monetary value which would not have occurred without the straddle. Same players playing the same way equals more profit for the button straddle assuming he is +EV to begin with. I'd rather win 50BB in 2/5 than 75BB in 1/2.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 03:41 PM

#13454

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel9861

Yes.

I guess SB2's argument was that if it's better for winning players to play deep stack, 300bb > 200bb > 100bb, then it must be worse to play shorter stack, 50bb < 100bb < 200bb.

I disagree; it isn't black and white.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 03:42 PM

#13455

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by spikeraw22

You're also right and I think we had already discussed that aspect of the argument.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 03:50 PM

#13456

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

To get a hourly stddev that low, I'm guessing some of your villains consistently table their hand prior to river action.

OP just didn't understand that 100 hour sample size is meaningless, even though we had gone over that hundreds of times in this thread.

Some people want to believe that if they had flipped a coin 1000 times and the frequency that one sided is landed 10x in the row is 2% in that sample size, the odds of 10th flip being the same as previous 9 must be around 2%.

That's why baccarat players believe in "runs," roulette players believe in "hot" numbers, and just about every gambler believe that they're "due for a good run" after extended period of losing.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:00 PM

#13457

Snowball2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 8,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

You just literally flipped the same equation around.....

So there's no way for the conclusion drawn to be false, if the premise is true...

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:03 PM

#13458

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowball2

You just literally flipped the same equation around.....

So there's no way for the conclusion drawn to be false, if the premise is true...

Poker isn't a straight line.

Are you telling me that 300bb is same strategy as 50bb? Can you not accept the fact that taking people out of comfort zone could be a good thing?

Can you still not accept the logic that if 100bb game is bad, making a higher stake 50bb game could be a good thing?

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:09 PM

#13459

Snowball2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 8,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

Your quote that i quoted basically says something to the effect of, "if 1 + 1 = 2, then 2 - 1 = 1". Duh? Pretty pointless post.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:11 PM

#13460

bwslim69

I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24,927

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowball2

Your quote that i quoted basically says something to the effect of, "if 1 + 1 = 2, then 2 - 1 = 1". Duh? Pretty pointless post.

Spoiler:

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:11 PM

#13461

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

It was intended that way for purpose of communication.

You must think I am really stupid to not know what I meant.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:13 PM

#13462

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

To get a hourly stddev that low, I'm guessing some of your villains consistently table their hand prior to river action.

I'm using poker income app on my android phone to record all my sessions. This is exclusively 1/2, with 95% at 100-300 cap and the rest crappy 60-200 cap game. I always buy in max in red and keep a bunch of green in my pocket. Every time my stack falls 25 below max I top off.

Are you saying that these std dev numbers are so far out there as to be not possible?

If yes, I'll export from the app on my phone to a csv file so that I can import in Microsoft Excel to manually double check calculations.

Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:28 PM

#13463

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead

Yes, that is my claim. It was discussed previously in this thread that one of the apps gets this calc wrong, but I don't remember which.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 04:45 PM

#13464

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

Yes, that is my claim. It was discussed previously in this thread that one of the apps gets this calc wrong, but I don't remember which.

I'll manually calculate from home tonight.

Sent from my LG-D801 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-15-2016 , 05:51 PM

#13465

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead

I'll manually calculate from home tonight.

Sent from my LG-D801 using 2+2 Forums

Didn't want to wait until i got home, so took a short break and did it at work.

-Exported the same most recent 54 sessions from the app into csv
- Imported into excel.
-Added a column for hourly win rate calculation for each row since that field wasn't in export.
- used excel standard deviation function to give me value based on this sample

Result is 31.511 bb per hour which is damn close to 32.27 that poker income calculated. Difference is likely due to rounding.

Sent from my LG-D801 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-15-2016 , 06:06 PM

#13466

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

I don't ever think I've seen that high a win rate with that low a standard deviation. I always thought standard deviation should be in the 60-110 range per hour

Quote

02-15-2016 , 06:27 PM

#13467

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead

Unless you took some other non-disclosed steps, then you generated a per session standard deviation. Per session stdev is useless as the samples are of varying time.

The poker tracking app everyone uses seems to fail at standardizing stuff to hourly too. (It is not just a matter of dividing). Those with longer sessions will see greater error in the report.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 06:39 PM

#13468

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

How should I calculate?

Sent from my LG-D801 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-15-2016 , 06:44 PM

#13469

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

The incorrect but effective way is to take the stdev{session results} / sqrt(average session length).

^ that is completely incorrect (as warned).. but will get you rather close to an accurate number. Additional dirty steps are to throw out any sessions that are really short from both lists (.. say < 60 minutes).

Quote

02-15-2016 , 07:10 PM

#13470

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

What is a reasonable St Dev for live poker?

Quote

02-15-2016 , 07:21 PM

#13471

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

stdev{session results} / sqrt(average session length).
31.51 / sqrt (8.09) = 11.075 BB per hour? (8:05 average in time format)

Is that right?

My shortest session in sample is 3:40 and longest is 18:13.

Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-15-2016 , 07:24 PM

#13472

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Don't correct your session results to hourly. Leave them in as total result

Quote

02-15-2016 , 07:36 PM

#13473

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead

How should I calculate?

Sent from my LG-D801 using 2+2 Forums

This is what I've been using. I think it's correct.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...88&postcount=4

Quote

02-15-2016 , 07:39 PM

#13474

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead

No. We don't know what the 31.51 number is, so don't use it in the calc.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 07:41 PM

#13475

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

What is a reasonable St Dev for live poker?

I think 60-120 bb hr for most NLHE, but I'll go with whatever bip! says on that one.

Quote

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