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Old 02-15-2016, 12:57 PM   #13451
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.
If you build your roll up to 20-25k I think you should take some 2/5 shots.
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Old 02-15-2016, 12:58 PM   #13452
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
why change a winning formula?

getting to the point where you don't even care about br is awesome
Well, I totally do care about BR.

because MrsDeadfish and our rental income can cover our living expenses i've been trusted with the task of building up retirement funds and/or paying down debt faster.

clearly quite the task and I want to be able to make as much $ as possible
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:33 PM   #13453
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You should defimitely
Be shot taking on weekends at 15k IMO.
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:58 PM   #13454
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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
There's no need for a rhetorical question. What's your point?
I thought it's pretty clear.

Here is the original argument:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
One fact that people can never admit or realize is that mandatory straddle makes a game that's already bad, worse.

If the game's tight and people are already hesitant to put money in, how would it make the game better if they suddenly had to put in twice as much money?
If the game was 3/5 with 100bb, now with straddle, it is 5/10 with 50bb.

Players remain the same, 3/5 players, and now they're playing 5/10.

If we are a winner at 8bb/hr playing 100bb 3/5, can we not expect to win 4bb+ playing 50bb at 5/10 with 3/5 players?

If not, then doesn't it also mean that anyone who ever shottakes with less than 100bb is -EV?
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Old 02-15-2016, 02:58 PM   #13455
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Interesting to start looking at my results in chunks of time as I work to improve my game.

Most recent 440 hours
Cashed 37/54 for 68%
BB/hour 10.69
St dev 32.27 bb/hour

Most recent 329
29/41 for 70%
BB/hour 12.73
Std dev 32.18 bb/hour

Most recent 209 hours
19/24 for 79%
BB/hour 17.27
Std dev 23.53 bb/hour

So, am I a fish on a heater, am I getting better or are they getting worse?


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Old 02-15-2016, 03:06 PM   #13456
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.
Let WR = your assumed hourly win rate

SD = your sample hourly stddev

If your WR is accurate, then at the end of the next 100 hours there is about a 1 in 200 chance that you'll be down more than

(WR *100 - (3*SD*100 / sqrt(100)) )
Or
(WR * 100 - SD * 30)

This is the sort of number I'd look at if asking myself this question. It doesn't answer your question, but can inform your decision making process.
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:16 PM   #13457
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I thought it's pretty clear.

Here is the original argument:



If the game was 3/5 with 100bb, now with straddle, it is 5/10 with 50bb.

Players remain the same, 3/5 players, and now they're playing 5/10.

If we are a winner at 8bb/hr playing 100bb 3/5, can we not expect to win 4bb+ playing 50bb at 5/10 with 3/5 players?

If not, then doesn't it also mean that anyone who ever shottakes with less than 100bb is -EV?
Oh so you were just supporting my argument with an example? With the argument being a person who has an 8bb/hr winrate playing 100bb 3/5 would most likely have a winrate of 4bb+ playing 50bb @ 5/10 with the same 3/5 players? I just assumed it was a lead up for a counter argument...
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:17 PM   #13458
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Interesting to start looking at my results in chunks of time as I work to improve my game.

Most recent 440 hours
Cashed 37/54 for 68%
BB/hour 10.69
St dev 32.27 bb/hour

Most recent 329
29/41 for 70%
BB/hour 12.73
Std dev 32.18 bb/hour

Most recent 209 hours
19/24 for 79%
BB/hour 17.27
Std dev 23.53 bb/hour

So, am I a fish on a heater, am I getting better or are they getting worse?


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To get a hourly stddev that low, I'm guessing some of your villains consistently table their hand prior to river action.
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:34 PM   #13459
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I thought it's pretty clear.

Here is the original argument:



If the game was 3/5 with 100bb, now with straddle, it is 5/10 with 50bb.

Players remain the same, 3/5 players, and now they're playing 5/10.

If we are a winner at 8bb/hr playing 100bb 3/5, can we not expect to win 4bb+ playing 50bb at 5/10 with 3/5 players?

If not, then doesn't it also mean that anyone who ever shottakes with less than 100bb is -EV?
I think the argument for a straddle has to be considered in terms of $ and not BB. In my experience, the BTN straddle is creating bigger pots in absolute monetary value which would not have occurred without the straddle. Same players playing the same way equals more profit for the button straddle assuming he is +EV to begin with. I'd rather win 50BB in 2/5 than 75BB in 1/2.
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:41 PM   #13460
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
Oh so you were just supporting my argument with an example? With the argument being a person who has an 8bb/hr winrate playing 100bb 3/5 would most likely have a winrate of 4bb+ playing 50bb @ 5/10 with the same 3/5 players? I just assumed it was a lead up for a counter argument...
Yes.

I guess SB2's argument was that if it's better for winning players to play deep stack, 300bb > 200bb > 100bb, then it must be worse to play shorter stack, 50bb < 100bb < 200bb.

I disagree; it isn't black and white.
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:42 PM   #13461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I think the argument for a straddle has to be considered in terms of $ and not BB. In my experience, the BTN straddle is creating bigger pots in absolute monetary value which would not have occurred without the straddle. Same players playing the same way equals more profit for the button straddle assuming he is +EV to begin with. I'd rather win 50BB in 2/5 than 75BB in 1/2.
You're also right and I think we had already discussed that aspect of the argument.
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:50 PM   #13462
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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
To get a hourly stddev that low, I'm guessing some of your villains consistently table their hand prior to river action.
OP just didn't understand that 100 hour sample size is meaningless, even though we had gone over that hundreds of times in this thread.

Some people want to believe that if they had flipped a coin 1000 times and the frequency that one sided is landed 10x in the row is 2% in that sample size, the odds of 10th flip being the same as previous 9 must be around 2%.

That's why baccarat players believe in "runs," roulette players believe in "hot" numbers, and just about every gambler believe that they're "due for a good run" after extended period of losing.
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:00 PM   #13463
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Yes.

I guess SB2's argument was that if it's better for winning players to play deep stack, 300bb > 200bb > 100bb, then it must be worse to play shorter stack, 50bb < 100bb < 200bb.

I disagree; it isn't black and white.
You just literally flipped the same equation around.....

So there's no way for the conclusion drawn to be false, if the premise is true...
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:03 PM   #13464
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Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
You just literally flipped the same equation around.....

So there's no way for the conclusion drawn to be false, if the premise is true...

Poker isn't a straight line.

Are you telling me that 300bb is same strategy as 50bb? Can you not accept the fact that taking people out of comfort zone could be a good thing?

Can you still not accept the logic that if 100bb game is bad, making a higher stake 50bb game could be a good thing?
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:09 PM   #13465
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Yes.

I guess SB2's argument was that if it's better for winning players to play deep stack, 300bb > 200bb > 100bb, then it must be worse to play shorter stack, 50bb < 100bb < 200bb.

I disagree; it isn't black and white.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Poker isn't a straight line.

Are you telling me that 300bb is same strategy as 50bb? Can you not accept the fact that taking people out of comfort zone could be a good thing?

Can you still not accept the logic that if 100bb game is bad, making a higher stake 50bb game could be a good thing?

Your quote that i quoted basically says something to the effect of, "if 1 + 1 = 2, then 2 - 1 = 1". Duh? Pretty pointless post.
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:11 PM   #13466
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
Your quote that i quoted basically says something to the effect of, "if 1 + 1 = 2, then 2 - 1 = 1". Duh? Pretty pointless post.
Spoiler:
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:11 PM   #13467
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It was intended that way for purpose of communication.

You must think I am really stupid to not know what I meant.
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:13 PM   #13468
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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
To get a hourly stddev that low, I'm guessing some of your villains consistently table their hand prior to river action.
I'm using poker income app on my android phone to record all my sessions. This is exclusively 1/2, with 95% at 100-300 cap and the rest crappy 60-200 cap game. I always buy in max in red and keep a bunch of green in my pocket. Every time my stack falls 25 below max I top off.

Are you saying that these std dev numbers are so far out there as to be not possible?

If yes, I'll export from the app on my phone to a csv file so that I can import in Microsoft Excel to manually double check calculations.




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Old 02-15-2016, 04:28 PM   #13469
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
I'm using poker income app on my android phone to record all my sessions. This is exclusively 1/2, with 95% at 100-300 cap and the rest crappy 60-200 cap game. I always buy in max in red and keep a bunch of green in my pocket. Every time my stack falls 25 below max I top off.

Are you saying that these std dev numbers are so far out there as to be not possible?

If yes, I'll export from the app on my phone to a csv file so that I can import in Microsoft Excel to manually double check calculations.




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Yes, that is my claim. It was discussed previously in this thread that one of the apps gets this calc wrong, but I don't remember which.
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Old 02-15-2016, 04:45 PM   #13470
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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
Yes, that is my claim. It was discussed previously in this thread that one of the apps gets this calc wrong, but I don't remember which.
I'll manually calculate from home tonight.

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Old 02-15-2016, 05:51 PM   #13471
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
I'll manually calculate from home tonight.

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Didn't want to wait until i got home, so took a short break and did it at work.

-Exported the same most recent 54 sessions from the app into csv
- Imported into excel.
-Added a column for hourly win rate calculation for each row since that field wasn't in export.
- used excel standard deviation function to give me value based on this sample

Result is 31.511 bb per hour which is damn close to 32.27 that poker income calculated. Difference is likely due to rounding.



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Old 02-15-2016, 06:06 PM   #13472
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I don't ever think I've seen that high a win rate with that low a standard deviation. I always thought standard deviation should be in the 60-110 range per hour
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Old 02-15-2016, 06:27 PM   #13473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Didn't want to wait until i got home, so took a short break and did it at work.

-Exported the same most recent 54 sessions from the app into csv
- Imported into excel.
-Added a column for hourly win rate calculation for each row since that field wasn't in export.
- used excel standard deviation function to give me value based on this sample

Result is 31.511 bb per hour which is damn close to 32.27 that poker income calculated. Difference is likely due to rounding.



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Unless you took some other non-disclosed steps, then you generated a per session standard deviation. Per session stdev is useless as the samples are of varying time.

The poker tracking app everyone uses seems to fail at standardizing stuff to hourly too. (It is not just a matter of dividing). Those with longer sessions will see greater error in the report.
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Old 02-15-2016, 06:39 PM   #13474
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Unless you took some other non-disclosed steps, then you generated a per session standard deviation. Per session stdev is useless as the samples are of varying time.

The poker tracking app everyone uses seems to fail at standardizing stuff to hourly too. (It is not just a matter of dividing). Those with longer sessions will see greater error in the report.
How should I calculate?

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Old 02-15-2016, 06:44 PM   #13475
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The incorrect but effective way is to take the stdev{session results} / sqrt(average session length).

^ that is completely incorrect (as warned).. but will get you rather close to an accurate number. Additional dirty steps are to throw out any sessions that are really short from both lists (.. say < 60 minutes).
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