Not the answer you probably want.. But if I was in your spot I would take that bankroll and reinvest it in myself in something outside of poker- like a trade.

You'll keep mrsdeadfish really happy earning two wages ( one being very steady and having a lot of future upside as well), and you will be happy being able to play during the best hours and being able to take shots freely.

LOL, when you put it like that, I guess you're right.

In my limited experience at live games though, 3/hr after 171hrs is pretty nightmarish for me.
I haven't gone through a downswing yet and ain't looking forward to it either

Averaging 16/hr over 150 hours, can I call myself a consistent winner or not even close???

150 is nuffin man.

Rough arbitrary estimate:

150 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $20

500 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $8.

1000 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $4.

Note: this hold all other factors constant. Also this does nothing to prove who is a winner, only estimates how long it might take to estimate your own winrate with reasonable confidence.

I gotta say the games I play look way juicer then the average game in this forum. If it wasnt the occasional rec just handing me over his stack I would have a losing month for sure.
May was fun, 184 hours up 8095.
Average 1/2 w/r is 26.41 over 700 hours. I feel I play bad lately tho, deviating too much from abc hit hands and print money.

Poker is a weird game. In May I had countless numbers of sets and had my worst month of 2015 as I never got paid or was always second best. In June, I can't recall flopping a single set and had my best month of the year.

May: -$670 over 91.7 hours (-$7.3/hr) (9/16 winning sessions or 56%)
June: +$3,565 over 46.5 hours ($76.7/hr) (8/8 winning sessions or 100%)

Bring on July

Where did you get these numbers?

Arbitrary estimate based on my experiences and what I've seen from others/this thread.

You do know there's an entire field of math devoted to figuring those things out, rather than pulling them out of your ass, right?

Yep, lmk if you ever find a meaningful sample of non-bs winrates that would give anyone the ability to do the 'math devoted'

come on man, no need to get rude. The guy is simply giving his percpective on winrates, nothing wrong there.

First off, are those the standard deviations of the true winrate? Or are you telling me that your confidence interval is +- $20 (or width, so +-$10)?

If we knew the *real* standard deviation of the winrate, we could calculate the required sample size for a 95% confidence interval of a given width as: n = 16σ^2/W^2.

The real question is "what is the true standard deviation of winrate?" From previous discussions ITT with data, I think this was on the order of $80/hr. bip! may remember.

So 95% confident that a true winrate is within a W(idth) of $20 and sigma of $80 is:

n = 16 * 80^2/20^2 = 256 hours

For a width of $5/hr n = 4096 hours


The fact that these samples are hard to collect doesn't mean that there aren't ways to predict what the sample size would need to be for a given confidence.

What's your buyin and the structure? And when you say you have a monthly nut of 2500 & wifey covers half, does this mean $1,250 comes out if your personal pocket?

The guy's perspective was worthless, and Angrist was right to improve the quality of advice in here.

so little update on my 2/5 session last night. holy **** that game was fishy. maybe it's because they were spreading 10/10 and 10/25 last night that i lucked out with a terrible 2/5 crew but the game was a joke. i sat down expecting to be "the mark" because it looked like i was playing with a bunch of regs that all knew each other and then i just started observing the garbage they showed up with. guys limping 63o UTG.

typical 1/2 limp happy bs.. people were literally limping every hand going to the flop without a raise. i got a few decent hands early on and started raising over limpers from the blinds or OTB with hands like AJo, A9o, pretty much any Ax hand. i was raising 4 + 1 BB per limper (vs. 5 + 1 BB per limper at 1/2), guy to my left goes "it sucks not to get any action on your hands huh? that's why I just limp" (i raised AQ and he just called KK from the SB vs. me and checked it down 3 streets on a low flop) and i'm just thinking to myself "yah bro, making $25 an orbit variance free OOP with Ace-high is such a bad outcome"

5 hours, +$500. doubled up very early on when UTG and UTG+1 limped, UTG+2 made it $30, I made it $100 OTB with KK, UTG+2 flats ($485 effective). flop 744r, she open ships for $385, hero calls and she has 87s. my hand is good.. wtf??

the next few hours i just bled $250-300 away raising broadways over limpers and getting out flopped by limp/callers. didn't hit a pair all night. had a **** load of small/mid PP's but didn't hit any sets. attacked some weak bets in multiway pots to get myself back to +$500 and called it a night.

now i know what game i am playing when 10/10 and/or 10/25 is going on.

Looking at some of the posts itt has inspired me to take live cash a little more seriously now (ty guys). I'll mainly be playing £1/1 but the player pool is near identical for £1/2 where I play so I've no qualms playing that if it's the only game running. I played my first recorded session last night(all after midnight so I'll include it in July) and results were +£375.50 over a 3.5hr @ 1/2 session, it should have been a lot higher but I stationed with marginal hands too much. Here's hoping that's the first of many nice sessions.

Edit: Also see I've got a near identical username to a frequent poster itt, this'll be interesting.

Awesome! It's been said the best game in the room is always the 2nd biggest game in the room!

how much of june was $1/2 vs. $1/3?

whenever 10/10 is going on, it usually makes 2/5 better.

i usually don't play tuesday nights, but i have heard a lot of players say when a higher game is running, for some reason it brings more fish to the level just below it.

someone we both know had a monster night at 2/5 on a tuesday night at parx last year.

not a coincidence i don't think.

6 sessions @ 1/2
1 session @ 1/3
1 session @ 2/5

2/5 players are terrible. Don't get overconfident though and just play your game and you will do fine.

I resemble that comment

In live poker why do people reccomend having life roll money segregated from the poker bankroll?

For one thing, it's easier to keep track of how you're doing that way. Yes, we should all be keeping records anyway, but some people delude themselves when they mix monies.

I keep some separate just because I don't like going back and forth to the ATM and the bank all the ****ing time. I'd rather just pick up my roll of cash from it's hiding spot and go to the card room with that then I keep the winnings out for a while. That goes up and down and I'm not constantly withdrawing and depositing.

It also makes it easier to dodge paying taxes if that's your plan.

I keep my roll in my safe at home in poker chips and bank notes.

I made a decision a long time ago to never dip into personal/family funds for poker. Poker is a hobby for me, not a job but while I could have easily jumped to 2/5 etc, I decided to work my way through the stakes, properly rolled in poker terms, to never fund poker with life money and to only start taking money out of poker funds when I was overrolled for the stakes I play.

So keeping my poker roll separate makes it easier to track and it also makes it easier to cope with losing sessions/downswings etc. I'd hate to have to go to the ATM at the beginning of a session and potentially to reload half way through.

It also helps reassure my wife that she knows it's a discreet pool of money and to justify things like my recent trip to Vegas (and also probably keeps her from spending it on her own stuff)