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Old 07-01-2015, 12:53 AM   #9501
de4df1sh
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
You should ask someone who actually plays full time.
The point of my post was that maybe someone who plays or played fulltime could come along and maybe shed some light
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Old 07-01-2015, 03:38 AM   #9502
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

May was my best month lifetime and june my worst.
171 hours played for a whopping 485$ profit. Impressive 2.84$/h

Going to vegas in july so using up all my runbad before
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Old 07-01-2015, 04:58 AM   #9503
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Do you guys think it is okay to play 2/5 fulltime with 19k. Cannot reload.

I believe I am/will be a decent winner at these stakes and my monthly nut is fairly small around 2.5k/mo with MrsDeadfish covering a little more then half.

At what point should I drop down to 1/2-1/3?
Depends on your 2/5 winrate but 19k is probably more than enough.
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Old 07-01-2015, 05:58 AM   #9504
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
May was my best month lifetime and june my worst.
171 hours played for a whopping 485$ profit. Impressive 2.84$/h

Going to vegas in july so using up all my runbad before
JC, that's brutal.
What were your May figures?
Share that good stuff too, brother
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Old 07-01-2015, 06:09 AM   #9505
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by danhendo888 View Post
JC, that's brutal.
What were your May figures?
Share that good stuff too, brother
You can't really think a guy who says his worst life month being 3/hr is brutal right?
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Old 07-01-2015, 06:16 AM   #9506
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
May was my best month lifetime and june my worst.
171 hours played for a whopping 485$ profit. Impressive 2.84$/h

Going to vegas in july so using up all my runbad before
your worst month and you still turned a profit.

i wouldn't be worried about only winning $2.84/hr. at least you still won. most have losing months at some point.
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Old 07-01-2015, 06:22 AM   #9507
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Do you guys think it is okay to play 2/5 fulltime with 19k. Cannot reload.

I believe I am/will be a decent winner at these stakes and my monthly nut is fairly small around 2.5k/mo with MrsDeadfish covering a little more then half.

At what point should I drop down to 1/2-1/3?
Not the answer you probably want.. But if I was in your spot I would take that bankroll and reinvest it in myself in something outside of poker- like a trade.

You'll keep mrsdeadfish really happy earning two wages ( one being very steady and having a lot of future upside as well), and you will be happy being able to play during the best hours and being able to take shots freely.
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Old 07-01-2015, 07:24 AM   #9508
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
You can't really think a guy who says his worst life month being 3/hr is brutal right?
LOL, when you put it like that, I guess you're right.

In my limited experience at live games though, 3/hr after 171hrs is pretty nightmarish for me.
I haven't gone through a downswing yet and ain't looking forward to it either
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Old 07-01-2015, 07:49 AM   #9509
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Averaging 16/hr over 150 hours, can I call myself a consistent winner or not even close???
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Old 07-01-2015, 07:59 AM   #9510
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Averaging 16/hr over 150 hours, can I call myself a consistent winner or not even close???
150 is nuffin man.
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Old 07-01-2015, 08:23 AM   #9511
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Rough arbitrary estimate:

150 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $20

500 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $8.

1000 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $4.

Note: this hold all other factors constant. Also this does nothing to prove who is a winner, only estimates how long it might take to estimate your own winrate with reasonable confidence.
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:16 AM   #9512
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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
your worst month and you still turned a profit.

i wouldn't be worried about only winning $2.84/hr. at least you still won. most have losing months at some point.
I gotta say the games I play look way juicer then the average game in this forum. If it wasnt the occasional rec just handing me over his stack I would have a losing month for sure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by danhendo888 View Post
JC, that's brutal.
What were your May figures?
Share that good stuff too, brother
May was fun, 184 hours up 8095.
Average 1/2 w/r is 26.41 over 700 hours. I feel I play bad lately tho, deviating too much from abc hit hands and print money.
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:27 AM   #9513
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Poker is a weird game. In May I had countless numbers of sets and had my worst month of 2015 as I never got paid or was always second best. In June, I can't recall flopping a single set and had my best month of the year.

May: -$670 over 91.7 hours (-$7.3/hr) (9/16 winning sessions or 56%)
June: +$3,565 over 46.5 hours ($76.7/hr) (8/8 winning sessions or 100%)

Bring on July
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:28 AM   #9514
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Rough arbitrary estimate:

150 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $20

500 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $8.


1000 hours: 95% confident in winrate with StdDev of $4.

Note: this hold all other factors constant. Also this does nothing to prove who is a winner, only estimates how long it might take to estimate your own winrate with reasonable confidence.
Where did you get these numbers?
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:56 AM   #9515
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
Where did you get these numbers?
Arbitrary estimate based on my experiences and what I've seen from others/this thread.
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Old 07-01-2015, 11:10 AM   #9516
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Arbitrary estimate based on my experiences and what I've seen from others/this thread.
You do know there's an entire field of math devoted to figuring those things out, rather than pulling them out of your ass, right?
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Old 07-01-2015, 11:13 AM   #9517
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
You do know there's an entire field of math devoted to figuring those things out, rather than pulling them out of your ass, right?
Yep, lmk if you ever find a meaningful sample of non-bs winrates that would give anyone the ability to do the 'math devoted'
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Old 07-01-2015, 11:31 AM   #9518
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
You do know there's an entire field of math devoted to figuring those things out, rather than pulling them out of your ass, right?
come on man, no need to get rude. The guy is simply giving his percpective on winrates, nothing wrong there.
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Old 07-01-2015, 12:24 PM   #9519
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First off, are those the standard deviations of the true winrate? Or are you telling me that your confidence interval is +- $20 (or width, so +-$10)?

If we knew the *real* standard deviation of the winrate, we could calculate the required sample size for a 95% confidence interval of a given width as: n = 16σ^2/W^2.

The real question is "what is the true standard deviation of winrate?" From previous discussions ITT with data, I think this was on the order of $80/hr. bip! may remember.

So 95% confident that a true winrate is within a W(idth) of $20 and sigma of $80 is:

n = 16 * 80^2/20^2 = 256 hours

For a width of $5/hr n = 4096 hours


The fact that these samples are hard to collect doesn't mean that there aren't ways to predict what the sample size would need to be for a given confidence.
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Old 07-01-2015, 12:51 PM   #9520
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Do you guys think it is okay to play 2/5 fulltime with 19k. Cannot reload.

I believe I am/will be a decent winner at these stakes and my monthly nut is fairly small around 2.5k/mo with MrsDeadfish covering a little more then half.

At what point should I drop down to 1/2-1/3?
What's your buyin and the structure? And when you say you have a monthly nut of 2500 & wifey covers half, does this mean $1,250 comes out if your personal pocket?
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Old 07-01-2015, 01:11 PM   #9521
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
come on man, no need to get rude. The guy is simply giving his percpective on winrates, nothing wrong there.
The guy's perspective was worthless, and Angrist was right to improve the quality of advice in here.
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Old 07-01-2015, 03:58 PM   #9522
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so little update on my 2/5 session last night. holy **** that game was fishy. maybe it's because they were spreading 10/10 and 10/25 last night that i lucked out with a terrible 2/5 crew but the game was a joke. i sat down expecting to be "the mark" because it looked like i was playing with a bunch of regs that all knew each other and then i just started observing the garbage they showed up with. guys limping 63o UTG.

typical 1/2 limp happy bs.. people were literally limping every hand going to the flop without a raise. i got a few decent hands early on and started raising over limpers from the blinds or OTB with hands like AJo, A9o, pretty much any Ax hand. i was raising 4 + 1 BB per limper (vs. 5 + 1 BB per limper at 1/2), guy to my left goes "it sucks not to get any action on your hands huh? that's why I just limp" (i raised AQ and he just called KK from the SB vs. me and checked it down 3 streets on a low flop) and i'm just thinking to myself "yah bro, making $25 an orbit variance free OOP with Ace-high is such a bad outcome"

5 hours, +$500. doubled up very early on when UTG and UTG+1 limped, UTG+2 made it $30, I made it $100 OTB with KK, UTG+2 flats ($485 effective). flop 744r, she open ships for $385, hero calls and she has 87s. my hand is good.. wtf??

the next few hours i just bled $250-300 away raising broadways over limpers and getting out flopped by limp/callers. didn't hit a pair all night. had a **** load of small/mid PP's but didn't hit any sets. attacked some weak bets in multiway pots to get myself back to +$500 and called it a night.

now i know what game i am playing when 10/10 and/or 10/25 is going on.
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Old 07-01-2015, 04:19 PM   #9523
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Looking at some of the posts itt has inspired me to take live cash a little more seriously now (ty guys). I'll mainly be playing £1/1 but the player pool is near identical for £1/2 where I play so I've no qualms playing that if it's the only game running. I played my first recorded session last night(all after midnight so I'll include it in July) and results were +£375.50 over a 3.5hr @ 1/2 session, it should have been a lot higher but I stationed with marginal hands too much. Here's hoping that's the first of many nice sessions.

Edit: Also see I've got a near identical username to a frequent poster itt, this'll be interesting.

Last edited by wj294; 07-01-2015 at 04:32 PM.
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Old 07-01-2015, 04:39 PM   #9524
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
so little update on my 2/5 session last night. holy **** that game was fishy. maybe it's because they were spreading 10/10 and 10/25 last night that i lucked out with a terrible 2/5 crew but the game was a joke. i sat down expecting to be "the mark" because it looked like i was playing with a bunch of regs that all knew each other and then i just started observing the garbage they showed up with. guys limping 63o UTG.

typical 1/2 limp happy bs.. people were literally limping every hand going to the flop without a raise. i got a few decent hands early on and started raising over limpers from the blinds or OTB with hands like AJo, A9o, pretty much any Ax hand. i was raising 4 + 1 BB per limper (vs. 5 + 1 BB per limper at 1/2), guy to my left goes "it sucks not to get any action on your hands huh? that's why I just limp" (i raised AQ and he just called KK from the SB vs. me and checked it down 3 streets on a low flop) and i'm just thinking to myself "yah bro, making $25 an orbit variance free OOP with Ace-high is such a bad outcome"

5 hours, +$500. doubled up very early on when UTG and UTG+1 limped, UTG+2 made it $30, I made it $100 OTB with KK, UTG+2 flats ($485 effective). flop 744r, she open ships for $385, hero calls and she has 87s. my hand is good.. wtf??

the next few hours i just bled $250-300 away raising broadways over limpers and getting out flopped by limp/callers. didn't hit a pair all night. had a **** load of small/mid PP's but didn't hit any sets. attacked some weak bets in multiway pots to get myself back to +$500 and called it a night.

now i know what game i am playing when 10/10 and/or 10/25 is going on.
Awesome! It's been said the best game in the room is always the 2nd biggest game in the room!
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Old 07-01-2015, 06:00 PM   #9525
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Poker is a weird game. In May I had countless numbers of sets and had my worst month of 2015 as I never got paid or was always second best. In June, I can't recall flopping a single set and had my best month of the year.

May: -$670 over 91.7 hours (-$7.3/hr) (9/16 winning sessions or 56%)
June: +$3,565 over 46.5 hours ($76.7/hr) (8/8 winning sessions or 100%)

Bring on July
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
so little update on my 2/5 session last night. holy **** that game was fishy. maybe it's because they were spreading 10/10 and 10/25 last night that i lucked out with a terrible 2/5 crew but the game was a joke. i sat down expecting to be "the mark" because it looked like i was playing with a bunch of regs that all knew each other and then i just started observing the garbage they showed up with. guys limping 63o UTG.

typical 1/2 limp happy bs.. people were literally limping every hand going to the flop without a raise. i got a few decent hands early on and started raising over limpers from the blinds or OTB with hands like AJo, A9o, pretty much any Ax hand. i was raising 4 + 1 BB per limper (vs. 5 + 1 BB per limper at 1/2), guy to my left goes "it sucks not to get any action on your hands huh? that's why I just limp" (i raised AQ and he just called KK from the SB vs. me and checked it down 3 streets on a low flop) and i'm just thinking to myself "yah bro, making $25 an orbit variance free OOP with Ace-high is such a bad outcome"

5 hours, +$500. doubled up very early on when UTG and UTG+1 limped, UTG+2 made it $30, I made it $100 OTB with KK, UTG+2 flats ($485 effective). flop 744r, she open ships for $385, hero calls and she has 87s. my hand is good.. wtf??

the next few hours i just bled $250-300 away raising broadways over limpers and getting out flopped by limp/callers. didn't hit a pair all night. had a **** load of small/mid PP's but didn't hit any sets. attacked some weak bets in multiway pots to get myself back to +$500 and called it a night.

now i know what game i am playing when 10/10 and/or 10/25 is going on.
how much of june was $1/2 vs. $1/3?

whenever 10/10 is going on, it usually makes 2/5 better.

i usually don't play tuesday nights, but i have heard a lot of players say when a higher game is running, for some reason it brings more fish to the level just below it.

someone we both know had a monster night at 2/5 on a tuesday night at parx last year.

not a coincidence i don't think.
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