You have the right idea but much too small of a sample size. Although 70% for 10 hour sessions from a top player is not far off IMO

Oh no, of course longer sessions means you win more often. I just expected the difference in win% between short and long sessions to be a lot more significant.

There is something to be said for "getting on a roll."

Not in a results oriented way, but I think everyone knows those nights where you hit early and the entire table just melts under the pressure or the rest of the night. Might this play a factor? Run good can affect win rate for the rest of the night not e cause of how we play but how our opponents perceive us.

Still shouldn't be enough to explain the results of the model though.

Expected win rate, standard deviation, and session length all weigh in to win % GG - but yes, assuming players are similar in WR and stdev - yet session length varies over a huge range, win % differences are just a function of session length among like players.

Looking at and trying to evaluate/analyze your game by session win % is a bad approach though.

Oh, ok, I see.

A compassion of percentage would have no effect on how often you win.

Looking at this stat in our records would typically be someone trying to fit data to their pre-formed conclusion.. "I run bad", etc.

I don't think that was DK's purpose - he was just curious about what is a reasonable rate.

FWIW - my win % is ~61%.

yeah, mostly curiosity. Nobody really understands live variance, you just don't play enough hands (or track finely enough) for stdev to tell you much. Not like online where results are saved hand by hand and you've got a sample of hundreds of thousands. So I thought it'd be neat to work on a simulator.

stdev actually is the one thing you can get fairly accurate. It converges rather quickly. (Or explained better - stdev is tough to budge after a decent number of samples). Winrate is the part of the equation that is never settled in live sample sizes.

DK!

Now I am on a 26 session winning streak, and the last 21 count for the prop bet. I think I won the prop bet. Unless someone else won the prop bet while I was taking a small break from poker and 2+2?

My total cumulative live winning percentage since I started recording is 80%. I chase losses, and play marathon sessions when stuck so I understand that this would be difficult for most people to achieve.

Discussed this exact thought process the other day. Certainly no "running good" from the deck, dealer, etc makes any sense as the cards have no memory. However, on those golden nights, even the nights where you just run on EV and have stack two things happen which do go towards win rate:

1. Players hold you in higher regard (winning image)

2. You play better in a better frame of mind.

So winning, running up stack, running well certainly helps. I know CLP often provide guidance around playing longer sessions when you have a winning image.

Cheers Mac

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Hello all,

I am a cash game player (live), and I played a lot last year for about 12 months.
I usually played 2/4 no limit HE in France, and occasionally went to LV or London. During this year, I recorded all my result on the Poker Manager app.
Then it gave me the following stats :
- Hours played : 1200 H
- Winrate : 10bb/H => 40bb/100 or 20BB/100 (100 hands equals 4H)
- Standard déviation : 62bb/H => 250bb/100 or 125BB/100
- Percentual Wins/Losses : 59/41

My standard deviation seems huge to me… What does that mean ? Do I play too Lag ? Because I don’t have this impression, even though I like 3-betting light sometimes and play aggressively enough during my sessions.

Thx for your opinions !


FYI, I decided to stop playing so much last september because I was not that happy with this activity, but I keep playing once or twice a week !

Nice!

If you've won the prop bet, come join us in the chat thread and force those of us in on it to pay up. The award is choosing our avatars for a month!

GavatarvirginG

I definitely agree with this and I remember first time that I became consciously aware of my image when someone pretty much snap open-folded 2 pairs to my barrel.

However, on the flip side, I kind of wish a lot more whales would follow the same idea and stay longer.

Richard, they know they are put of their depth though and run as soon as they can haha, that's the difference. Subconsciously they know they have lucked their way to what they have in front of them haha

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Question is then, do you think people that leave to protect their win feel the same way?

Ive been grinding on bovada 25nl, but I want to get into live poker. I live in tampa which is a decent poker town. I dont have 4k for 200nl (more like 1k) but one of my local room spreads a 1/1 NL 80$ max buy in. Do you think Id be better off grinding that til I get enough to shot take 200nl or just stay online for now til i get a proper live roll? Any advice would be helpful.

If you're beating 25NL online, shouldn't be a problem to crush any 1/2 live, especially where you're playing.

Not sure you can't be so broad. A thinking player would take into consideration many things as to whether to stay and play or not (here's a couple):

• Is it a good game?
• Are you tired?
• Playing A Game?

I think, there would be some that are as you say "protecting a win" others would take into consideration not the amount they are winning or losing but many factors.

Cheers Mac

Yeah but I dont have a roll for 1/2 yet. I have like 1k to grind with. Do you think it would be worth it to play a 1/1 80$ max buy in, or would it be better to stay online til I have at least 10 buy ins for 1/2?

Play 1/2, you will crush the game even with such a small roll.

Sure you do. You really don't need $4k to start playing $1/2. Just start.

$80 max 1/1 games are completely ****ing awful. There's no money to be made there and the rake is insane.

Just sit down with $200 and another $400 in your pocket and see how it goes.

+1

Thanks guys. Gonna take a shot friday.