To those wondering what a normal "winning percentage" is (I was curious too! Even though it doesn't matter, it's all one long session, etc) I've tried to build a simulation model.
I decided to gather data by tracking strong players on live at the bike. I would sort each hand into a range of winnings
I only gathered 122 hands which wasn't nearly enough, especially given that so much of a live player's winrate comes from the big hands that only happen once every several hours. Also the players I tracked ran pretty hot. So using the little data I had as a guide I kind of guessed at what a per-hand distribution should look like.
So the simulation works by running every hand like, you've got a 5/1706 chance of winning 120bb, a 10/1706 chance of winning 85bb, and so on.
I don't really think those numbers are accurate, seems like you should be winning or losing a stack more often than I've put, so if anyone has ideas for better numbers let me know and I will recompile it. Or if there's interest I could even make it so that you can input your own frequencies.
These are also based on strong players who play a pretty wide range of hands, the simulation results would probably be a lot different for players who don't win as much and play a lot tighter.
What did surprise me was that I expected results to regress upwards a lot faster. I figured 1 hour sessions would be imperceptibly above 50/50 but if a 5.5bb/hr crusher played 10hr sessions he'd win like 70%. It seems the difference in the amount of winning sessions if you tend to play a few hours longer is pretty small.
Link to simulator (no download, it's just flash): http://www.fastswf.com/lU9qrCE
Last edited by DK Barrel; 01-09-2015 at 04:49 PM.