[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 329 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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11-30-2014 , 09:12 PM

#8201

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Sol likes to use his UK game as exception to the rule but never actually spells it out in his posts.

For a typical 100bb BI "American" game, 20BI downswing will be very very rare...for a big winner (ldo).

But of course, you're getting opinions from winning players that have been winning for a while.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 04:01 AM

#8202

acescracked84

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by oh-nahhh

so I've logged 850 total hours since downloading pokerjournal, and my biggest downswing is 6k at 2/5, and at least half of that was tilt

you guys are saying that I can expect to lose a lot more at some time in the future and it will be standard?

Maybe not a lot more, but I have had a 9k downswing at 2/5 and I have logged over 4k hours.

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12-01-2014 , 04:11 AM

#8203

nutinsider

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 342

3k+ hour live sample. I'd say 2k of the hours are plo.

In that sample most of the plo is 25 otb. No blinds. I just hit my biggest downswing. 35k. Most of it was in one session (20)

Before this swing my biggest downer was 32k. My longest break even stretch is 500 hours and this year I had a 350 hour break even stretch.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

12-01-2014 , 10:49 AM

#8204

oh-nahhh

Donking it

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,040

Quote:

Originally Posted by nutinsider

you lost 20k in one session of 2 5 PLO?

um.... wow

Quote

12-01-2014 , 12:15 PM

#8205

Brown Keeper

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,542

Quote:

Originally Posted by oh-nahhh

you lost 20k in one session of 2 5 PLO?

um.... wow

It's a private game with $25 on the button, no blinds.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:34 PM

#8206

Dubey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,844

Quote:

Originally Posted by Siculamente

Coming from online where a 50-100k hand sample (one month of play) isn't hard data, or even an entire year isn't enough... I think it's funny to see live players think a few thousand hours is large enough to make predictions or even generalizations about all live players swings

but you guys can think whatever you want. I didn't mean to bruise anyones ego. All of you are crushers who will never go on a downswing. Ever. I'd tell you good luck but you guys obviously don't need it

Others have pounded this point, but you can't compare online to live. IF you want to, at least alter the numbers so you are talking in the same terms.

A standard "good live player" winrate of 10 BB/hour translates to approximately 30 BB/100. Now imagine that you were winning online at a consistent long term rate of 30 BB/100. Do you still think you would need 100k hands to prove you were a winner? do you still think a 20 buy-in downswing is likely to happen to this theoretical player?

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:38 PM

#8207

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Good call Dubey.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 02:14 AM

#8208

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Just out of curiosity, and forgive me for not reading through the entire text ITT as I'm certain my question is unoriginal.

When people say " you should have X months worth of living expenses saved."

Where/why does this come from?

The way in operating now is I have one segregated amount of money I use for my roll. And then I just transfer cash over to my "life roll" as needed for petty things like gas or food etc.

Thanks guys.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 05:23 AM

#8209

ibelieveyouoweme$80k

LLSNL FF Champ '13

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 12,868

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream

Got a job hoping to get funds to play poker.

Get promoted. Now I have funds to play live poker!

Promotion comes with 10 hour minimum workdays and people calling me on my days off. Feel like I don't have enough time to play poker.

Here's what I've been able to put in since the promotion. 10 sessions with a couple of huge losses. Down about $50 overall.

you need to learn what a 'huge' loss is in a session. 2 buyins? pretty damn standard for a losing session.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 05:24 AM

#8210

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly

you need to learn what a 'huge' loss is in a session. 2 buyins? pretty damn standard for a losing session.

Agreed.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 05:48 AM

#8211

ibelieveyouoweme$80k

LLSNL FF Champ '13

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 12,868

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

One of the problems with this is that if you are just taking your winnings and using them for bills, etc., it will make it much tougher/slower for you to build up your poker roll and move up in stakes. if you have no interest in moving up, it really doesn't matter.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 06:20 AM

#8212

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly

But once said "life roll" is depleted we would need to inject it with funds from our "poker roll" correct?

I guess what in trying to say is that having 10k poker roll and 5 life roll does not seem to offer any benefit over clumping the two together for just a 15k roll.

I ask because in the business/finance section I had asked where to invest 5k as a part of my roll and they sort of lol'd at the idea of investing a portion of your bankroll.

I consider every dollar I have as part of my bankroll because I can and will play poker with it if need be and will also pay bills and eat with it if need be also.

Is this logic incorrect?

Quote

12-08-2014 , 08:03 AM

#8213

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,495

It's all just mental masturbation.

You have $ X in net worth.
You should have $ Y in your 'bank roll' to have a safe amount of money to deal with normal swings as a poker player.
You should have $ Z to live off in case you have a bad run and don't make additional income.

So as long as $ X >= $ Y + $ Z it doesn't really matter.

But since most people are bad at money management in the general sense it's recommend to have them explicitly separate.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 08:06 AM

#8214

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

Thanks, this was my thoughts on the matter.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 10:10 AM

#8215

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

ya over thinking it. All they're saying is that your bankroll should be large enough to cover X number of months living expenses should you break even for X number of months which from what I've read absolutely can happen.

It's like starting a business. You may have enough to start the business but do you have enough saved up to cover operating expenses for the first year while your new business loses money (almost all do)? That's the downfall of most start ups and poker is no exception.

Quote

12-08-2014 , 01:32 PM

#8216

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,149

A clueless NL noob reaches 2,000 hours of live 1/3 NL!

Gpokeriseasy,imoG

Quote

12-08-2014 , 01:35 PM

#8217

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

Looks like the graph is leveling out. Game is passing you by.

Spoiler:

Quote

12-08-2014 , 01:35 PM

#8218

LoudPacquiao

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,466

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

A clueless NL noob reaches 2,000 hours of live 1/3 NL!

Gpokeriseasy,imoG

Move up?

Quote

12-08-2014 , 01:44 PM

#8219

Brown Keeper

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,542

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

A clueless NL noob reaches 2,000 hours of live 1/3 NL!

Gpokeriseasy,imoG

This is the biggest that runs at your room, right?
I think I've heard pros are untaxed in the great white north, what do they take from amateurs?

Quote

12-08-2014 , 01:45 PM

#8220

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,149

Quote:

Originally Posted by spikeraw22

Looks like the graph is leveling out. Game is passing you by.

Ha, honestly if you take out that part from mid 2012 - all 2013 (where I, like, didn't lose), the graph isn't nearly as impressive. Has also started correcting itself with that recent 79 hours worth of hell.

GblissfullyunawarethatI'mrunninggoodG

Quote

12-08-2014 , 01:49 PM

#8221

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,149

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brown Keeper

This is the biggest that runs at your room, right?
I think I've heard pros are untaxed in the great white north, what do they take from amateurs?

Ya, pretty much. Once in a blue moon a bigger game goes (recently a 5/5 game has been going during some weeknights). I don't really have much desire in moving up since I can crush this game so easily, but if a consistently good bigger game ever starts happening I guess I'll have to look into it.

Casino winning are not taxed up here. Not exactly sure of what is "supposed" to happen if you are doing this as main source of income, but I do this as a side hobby so nothing to worry about.

GpunchinglittlechildreninthefaceinthekiddiepoolG

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12-08-2014 , 02:29 PM

#8222

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

GG you're not in Canada are you?

In the US if you make anything over $600 (i think that's the sum) You're responsible for reporting it. Most don't because it's not easily tracked, but if you make enough it'll start showing up and the IRS could possibly take notice and then **** hits fans and fans blow it all over you.