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Old 11-30-2014, 09:54 AM   #8201
Sol Reader
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm up lots of bbs this year, but down money so, haha. I've definitely had 5 fig swings both ways at 2/5. Not quite 1/2 but def have lost 5k+ at 1/2 (though deep), so I think 20 bi can be a bit shallow if you buyin deep or don't move down.

I've decided to move to a 40bi brm since I have to pay rent and stuff. Makes me sad.

Bad runs definitely can happen but as said it clouds judgement and to a great degree bad play and bad luck do come hand in hand.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:58 PM   #8202
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My game is 500 cap. I take nothing from my roll. I har unlimited access to deep and pitifully soft 1/2 so my risk is basically zero. Hence the 20bi requirement.

I can say that I'm still getting used to the amounts. I do flinch a bit when I stack off and lose. Mostly, that's just a temporary issue while I grow accustomed o the bigger pot sizes. I'm not really concerned with the actual loss since I'm not currently pullin from that roll anyway. I have yet to have a big winner a 2/5. That'll fix a lot of te mental issues I think.
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Old 11-30-2014, 05:44 PM   #8203
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
My game is 500 cap. I take nothing from my roll. I har unlimited access to deep and pitifully soft 1/2 so my risk is basically zero. Hence the 20bi requirement.

I can say that I'm still getting used to the amounts. I do flinch a bit when I stack off and lose. Mostly, that's just a temporary issue while I grow accustomed o the bigger pot sizes. I'm not really concerned with the actual loss since I'm not currently pullin from that roll anyway. I have yet to have a big winner a 2/5. That'll fix a lot of te mental issues I think.

Yeah, I actually dropped down from 2/5 back to 1/2-1/3 because I just felt so uncomfortable pulling the trigger in spots I know I should and feeling like the world was over when I had a ****ty session and this was with a 30bi roll.
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Old 11-30-2014, 06:20 PM   #8204
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Im down money as well this year with over 1k hours in volume (coming off a huge downswing at the end of 2013 too that i didnt include). 500:1 is in your favor at 2/5 assuming you will DEFINITELY play like 2000 hours (i mean thats only a bit more than 3 standard deviations of runbad), but then again if you've never experienced losing over the first 1000 hours you might lose motivation to grind out the rest and get back to positive, so it's a tossup at those odds imo
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Old 11-30-2014, 06:28 PM   #8205
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Literally like 90%+ of the best players running the best that I know have had a couple hundred hours and like 600bb downswings at a bare minimum at 2/5 levels- again, these are the guys who play great *and* run great, like do you know any long-time players who havent even experienced that? So... If these are the guys that run like god, then it shouldnt be that much of a stretch to imagine guys who are ACTUALLY running badly and maybe only slightly worse at poker but still very solid winners to have downswings over 3x worse than that.

Last edited by Aesah; 11-30-2014 at 06:39 PM.
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Old 11-30-2014, 08:51 PM   #8206
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

so I've logged 850 total hours since downloading pokerjournal, and my biggest downswing is 6k at 2/5, and at least half of that was tilt

you guys are saying that I can expect to lose a lot more at some time in the future and it will be standard?
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Old 11-30-2014, 09:12 PM   #8207
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sol likes to use his UK game as exception to the rule but never actually spells it out in his posts.

For a typical 100bb BI "American" game, 20BI downswing will be very very rare...for a big winner (ldo).

But of course, you're getting opinions from winning players that have been winning for a while.
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Old 12-01-2014, 04:01 AM   #8208
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by oh-nahhh View Post
so I've logged 850 total hours since downloading pokerjournal, and my biggest downswing is 6k at 2/5, and at least half of that was tilt

you guys are saying that I can expect to lose a lot more at some time in the future and it will be standard?
Maybe not a lot more, but I have had a 9k downswing at 2/5 and I have logged over 4k hours.
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Old 12-01-2014, 04:11 AM   #8209
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

3k+ hour live sample. I'd say 2k of the hours are plo.

In that sample most of the plo is 25 otb. No blinds. I just hit my biggest downswing. 35k. Most of it was in one session (20)

Before this swing my biggest downer was 32k. My longest break even stretch is 500 hours and this year I had a 350 hour break even stretch.



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Old 12-01-2014, 10:49 AM   #8210
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by nutinsider View Post
3k+ hour live sample. I'd say 2k of the hours are plo.

In that sample most of the plo is 25 otb. No blinds. I just hit my biggest downswing. 35k. Most of it was in one session (20)

Before this swing my biggest downer was 32k. My longest break even stretch is 500 hours and this year I had a 350 hour break even stretch.



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you lost 20k in one session of 2 5 PLO?

um.... wow
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Old 12-01-2014, 12:15 PM   #8211
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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you lost 20k in one session of 2 5 PLO?



um.... wow

It's a private game with $25 on the button, no blinds.
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Old 12-01-2014, 03:34 PM   #8212
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Coming from online where a 50-100k hand sample (one month of play) isn't hard data, or even an entire year isn't enough... I think it's funny to see live players think a few thousand hours is large enough to make predictions or even generalizations about all live players swings

but you guys can think whatever you want. I didn't mean to bruise anyones ego. All of you are crushers who will never go on a downswing. Ever. I'd tell you good luck but you guys obviously don't need it


Others have pounded this point, but you can't compare online to live. IF you want to, at least alter the numbers so you are talking in the same terms.

A standard "good live player" winrate of 10 BB/hour translates to approximately 30 BB/100. Now imagine that you were winning online at a consistent long term rate of 30 BB/100. Do you still think you would need 100k hands to prove you were a winner? do you still think a 20 buy-in downswing is likely to happen to this theoretical player?
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Old 12-01-2014, 03:38 PM   #8213
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Good call Dubey.
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Old 12-08-2014, 02:14 AM   #8214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just out of curiosity, and forgive me for not reading through the entire text ITT as I'm certain my question is unoriginal.

When people say " you should have X months worth of living expenses saved."

Where/why does this come from?

The way in operating now is I have one segregated amount of money I use for my roll. And then I just transfer cash over to my "life roll" as needed for petty things like gas or food etc.

Thanks guys.
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Old 12-08-2014, 05:23 AM   #8215
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream View Post
Got a job hoping to get funds to play poker.

Get promoted. Now I have funds to play live poker!

Promotion comes with 10 hour minimum workdays and people calling me on my days off. Feel like I don't have enough time to play poker.

Here's what I've been able to put in since the promotion. 10 sessions with a couple of huge losses. Down about $50 overall.

you need to learn what a 'huge' loss is in a session. 2 buyins? pretty damn standard for a losing session.
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Old 12-08-2014, 05:24 AM   #8216
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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you need to learn what a 'huge' loss is in a session. 2 buyins? pretty damn standard for a losing session.
Agreed.
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Old 12-08-2014, 05:48 AM   #8217
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Just out of curiosity, and forgive me for not reading through the entire text ITT as I'm certain my question is unoriginal.

When people say " you should have X months worth of living expenses saved."

Where/why does this come from?

The way in operating now is I have one segregated amount of money I use for my roll. And then I just transfer cash over to my "life roll" as needed for petty things like gas or food etc.

Thanks guys.
One of the problems with this is that if you are just taking your winnings and using them for bills, etc., it will make it much tougher/slower for you to build up your poker roll and move up in stakes. if you have no interest in moving up, it really doesn't matter.
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Old 12-08-2014, 06:20 AM   #8218
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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One of the problems with this is that if you are just taking your winnings and using them for bills, etc., it will make it much tougher/slower for you to build up your poker roll and move up in stakes. if you have no interest in moving up, it really doesn't matter.
But once said "life roll" is depleted we would need to inject it with funds from our "poker roll" correct?

I guess what in trying to say is that having 10k poker roll and 5 life roll does not seem to offer any benefit over clumping the two together for just a 15k roll.

I ask because in the business/finance section I had asked where to invest 5k as a part of my roll and they sort of lol'd at the idea of investing a portion of your bankroll.

I consider every dollar I have as part of my bankroll because I can and will play poker with it if need be and will also pay bills and eat with it if need be also.

Is this logic incorrect?
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Old 12-08-2014, 08:03 AM   #8219
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's all just mental masturbation.

You have $ X in net worth.
You should have $ Y in your 'bank roll' to have a safe amount of money to deal with normal swings as a poker player.
You should have $ Z to live off in case you have a bad run and don't make additional income.

So as long as $ X >= $ Y + $ Z it doesn't really matter.

But since most people are bad at money management in the general sense it's recommend to have them explicitly separate.
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Old 12-08-2014, 08:06 AM   #8220
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It's all just mental masturbation.

You have $ X in net worth.
You should have $ Y in your 'bank roll' to have a safe amount of money to deal with normal swings as a poker player.
You should have $ Z to live off in case you have a bad run and don't make additional income.

So as long as $ X >= $ Y + $ Z it doesn't really matter.

But since most people are bad at money management in the general sense it's recommend to have them explicitly separate.
Thanks, this was my thoughts on the matter.
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Old 12-08-2014, 10:10 AM   #8221
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ya over thinking it. All they're saying is that your bankroll should be large enough to cover X number of months living expenses should you break even for X number of months which from what I've read absolutely can happen.

It's like starting a business. You may have enough to start the business but do you have enough saved up to cover operating expenses for the first year while your new business loses money (almost all do)? That's the downfall of most start ups and poker is no exception.
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Old 12-08-2014, 01:32 PM   #8222
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A clueless NL noob reaches 2,000 hours of live 1/3 NL!





Gpokeriseasy,imoG
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Old 12-08-2014, 01:35 PM   #8223
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Looks like the graph is leveling out. Game is passing you by.

Spoiler:
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Old 12-08-2014, 01:35 PM   #8224
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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A clueless NL noob reaches 2,000 hours of live 1/3 NL!





Gpokeriseasy,imoG
Move up?
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Old 12-08-2014, 01:44 PM   #8225
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
A clueless NL noob reaches 2,000 hours of live 1/3 NL!





Gpokeriseasy,imoG

This is the biggest that runs at your room, right?
I think I've heard pros are untaxed in the great white north, what do they take from amateurs?
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