I am confused. I am reading about Live cash game players who have a 4 month downswing; does this actually happen to most pros? I understand variance and it depends on the style, your opp, and table selection, but if your a winning player playing 30 hours + a week, should you really have 4 month downswings?

Any Live players have any comments or experiences they can share on this topic?


Thanks

i would quit if i didn't make any profit over 500 hours of play. i mean i guess anything is possible but i would suspect he isn't playing his "A" game. either that or he is playing 5/10 and above. the variance is definitely going to be higher in the bigger games.

The title of this thread is 4 months, make no mistake - playing 500 hours in 4 months doesn't really happen, that's not a realistic number.
...........

Downswings and bad runs do happen, even to some really good players. I'm not an authority on the subject but do have experience.

I used to think that when various players would tell me their bad beat stories and specifically "run bad" stories I would relate this to *play bad*. Most of the players that I heard this stuff from were, in my view, just another losing player making excusing for bad/dumb play.
Within the last year I have had this conversation w/ two different well known and well respected long term winning players. My view has changed.

I'm still a firm believer that the overwhelming majority of the time someone tells you this awful story of all the beats they take, and their extended "run bad / downswing" its just code of bad play.
That said, run bad/downswings do happen. Just not as often or as described by losing players who use these terms for not coming to grips w/ their own short comings in the game.

I have a well documented 157 hour stretch of losing/almost break even. Some of it was bad beats, some unlucky situations, maybe even some "run bad", but clearly some bad play from me.

probably true, but he mentioned 30hrs per week so that is where i got my number.

wow,,,I just realized that I totally misread that, and then attempted to counter. My mistake, sorry dude. You're numbers sound accurate, I was wrong.

I've played professionally for like two years + (although only part time recently due to focusing on other things) and have only had a 4-5 break-even months. Worst downswing I even encountered lasted like a month and a half of break even play.

Just to give you some perspective. My sample is 2100 hours. Half plo half hold em. In this sample my observed hourly is $78/hour. The stakes run from 2-5 nlh to 10-25 plo. 90% of my sessions are at home games. In 2013 I had two separate 500 hour break even stretches. One in early spring and one in late summer. Since my last one I am on a heater and have not had a losing month since October 2013. I average 120-130 hours per month. My standard deviation is around 900 bucks an hour.

@ break even duration. Keep in mind most players will play a range of levels just like the poster above. If T/25 only runs once a week and you have a few bad sessions at the highest stakes... and then 80% of your hours are at 2/5, the break even stretches can last a long time.

+1

Hi guys... I'm fairly new to the game but have decided to be smart and keep good stats. I didn't like any of the web sites/apps out there, so just went with Excel. I found some pre-made spreadsheets but didn't really like any of them.

Thought I'd share the one I just together. I like it because it's simple and lets you keep results with expenses separate from total profits.

It allows you by session to enter:

Date
Room
SB/BB
Buy-in amount (how much of your bankroll you put on the table)
Hours played
Hands/hr estimate
Expenses (e.g., tips, food)
Cash-out amount

From this it calculates, for each session and over time:
Total hands
Total win (excluding expenses)
Total profit (including expenses)
Win/hr
Profit/hr
BB/100 (win)
BB/100 (profit)
If winning session (Made a cent or more)
If profitable session (Left with a cent or more extra)
Percent winning sessions
Percent profitable sessions

And it provides a line graph.

One note, the overtime BB/100 are calculated by using a weighted average

E.g.,

Lifetime BB/100 =

(Lifetime BB/100 up to last session * total hands up to last session / total hands ever including new session) + (BB/100 last session * total hands last session / total hands ever
including this session)

This allows you to play different limits...

Pretty straight forward. Hope it helps someone.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/a96n7x2ds9mhvqy/Poker%20Results%20For2p2.xlsx

It has my sessions since I started keeping records in there for example data. The second row of results is where things start to account for data over time, for obvious reasons.

What bip said. I played one session in a 25-50 short handed plo match and.got murdered. This was last summer. But a few weeks ago I played 50-100 heads up and did well so some.of.my.data points are super concentrated.

Great info man. Much appreciated. By chance, do you have any excel spreadsheets you could send me with past results for a few months. It would be interesting to see for patterns and such. Thanks again

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using 2+2 Forums

Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Sent is is DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Sent is my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Gotta get me one of those phones ^

Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

[ is =jeffhbh;43083391]Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums[/QUOTE]



Sent ise my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Oh my ...

Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Butt-posting obv.

Jeff,

Great poasts....moar plz