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Old 04-29-2014, 02:09 AM   #7076
jsmo0th10
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry My last app didn't do standard deviation so not too familiar with it. It is $288.51... I don't know if that's per hour but I would assume per session? The app doesn't say. And it is all 1-2.

Edit: Ok I just saw when I dug into the stats sub-section it says my standard deviation p/h is $122.22. All 1-2
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Old 04-29-2014, 04:07 AM   #7077
Duke0424
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April is in the books for me, won't be playing the last few days

Finished the month +$12,583 in 121.18 hours for $103.84/hour all at 5/5 or 3/5

Biggest winning month!
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Old 04-29-2014, 07:09 AM   #7078
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
April is in the books for me, won't be playing the last few days

Finished the month +$12,583 in 121.18 hours for $103.84/hour all at 5/5 or 3/5

Biggest winning month!
Congrats Duke.
That's fantastic. Keep up the pace next month.
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Old 04-29-2014, 09:07 AM   #7079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsmo0th10 View Post
Sorry My last app didn't do standard deviation so not too familiar with it. It is $288.51... I don't know if that's per hour but I would assume per session? The app doesn't say. And it is all 1-2.

Edit: Ok I just saw when I dug into the stats sub-section it says my standard deviation p/h is $122.22. All 1-2
Seems pretty typical IMO.
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Old 04-29-2014, 10:40 AM   #7080
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
April is in the books for me, won't be playing the last few days

Finished the month +$12,583 in 121.18 hours for $103.84/hour all at 5/5 or 3/5

Biggest winning month!
wow, that is virtually identical to my April stats: +$12623/121.09 @ $104.18/hr

sustainable imo

but I plan to play more aggro last 2 days solely to hit 15k... ez game obv
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Old 04-29-2014, 11:16 AM   #7081
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Re: Do I take a shot in Vegas, at home, or not at all?

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Originally Posted by $FishWreck$ View Post
I am once a week, rec player, who has been playing seven years and been disciplined with the reading. I am used to playing very tight 1-3 casino tables in my home state of Washington. People are tight with their money around here and this is reflected at the poker tables.

Even at 1/3, spewey, spazzy villains are very rare here. Almost everyone thoroughly understands the fundamentals. Villains are mostly exploitable because they either play face up or fold to pressure too quickly on the turn.

I am a winning player, making a profit 70% - 80% of the time. This is not a common feat given the rake and uber-tight play. At a weak tight table, I can LAG it up and bash the nits. At looser tables, I play more ABC, occasionally picking spots to bluff.

That said, I am an amateur and I play for fun. I took a shot at 3-5 (the biggest game always being played at my casino) three years ago, and went through a $1.5K bankroll before going back to 1-3. (Underrolled I know, but my day job pays well and I had plenty to go back to 1/3.)

I'm a considerably better player now than three years ago. I have been thinking of taking another shot at 3-5. Should I do this in Vegas? I go there next week. Should I do it at home? Or should I avoid the better players altogether and stick with 1/3? Perhaps, I shouldn't expect to be able to match up with guys who do it for a living and play every day...
My advice would be to weight all the reasons you are playing poker in Vegas next week.

Are you playing for fun / entertainment?

Are you playing to make money?

Are you playing to challenge yourself?

Are there some "bucket list" type things regarding poker you are trying to achieve?

Etc.

As long as you are comfortably rolled for the game you are going to play in, simply weight all the reasons for why you are playing poker in Vegas (which might change on a day-to-day basis depending on various factors), and then choose the option which satisfies your desires the best.

GimoG
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Old 04-30-2014, 12:15 AM   #7082
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Is a 4 month downswing bad for cash? or does it eventually happen

I am confused. I am reading about Live cash game players who have a 4 month downswing; does this actually happen to most pros? I understand variance and it depends on the style, your opp, and table selection, but if your a winning player playing 30 hours + a week, should you really have 4 month downswings?

Any Live players have any comments or experiences they can share on this topic?


Thanks
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Old 04-30-2014, 12:39 AM   #7083
Jake Stanton
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Re: Is a 4 month downswing bad for cash? or does it eventually happen

i would quit if i didn't make any profit over 500 hours of play. i mean i guess anything is possible but i would suspect he isn't playing his "A" game. either that or he is playing 5/10 and above. the variance is definitely going to be higher in the bigger games.
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Old 04-30-2014, 12:59 AM   #7084
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Re: Is a 4 month downswing bad for cash? or does it eventually happen

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i would quit if i didn't make any profit over 500 hours of play
The title of this thread is 4 months, make no mistake - playing 500 hours in 4 months doesn't really happen, that's not a realistic number.
...........

Downswings and bad runs do happen, even to some really good players. I'm not an authority on the subject but do have experience.

I used to think that when various players would tell me their bad beat stories and specifically "run bad" stories I would relate this to *play bad*. Most of the players that I heard this stuff from were, in my view, just another losing player making excusing for bad/dumb play.
Within the last year I have had this conversation w/ two different well known and well respected long term winning players. My view has changed.

I'm still a firm believer that the overwhelming majority of the time someone tells you this awful story of all the beats they take, and their extended "run bad / downswing" its just code of bad play.
That said, run bad/downswings do happen. Just not as often or as described by losing players who use these terms for not coming to grips w/ their own short comings in the game.

I have a well documented 157 hour stretch of losing/almost break even. Some of it was bad beats, some unlucky situations, maybe even some "run bad", but clearly some bad play from me.

Last edited by Under_the_Radar; 04-30-2014 at 01:07 AM.
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Old 04-30-2014, 01:09 AM   #7085
Jake Stanton
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Re: Is a 4 month downswing bad for cash? or does it eventually happen

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Originally Posted by Under_the_Radar View Post
The title of this thread is 4 months, make no mistake - playing 500 hours in 4 months doesn't really happen, that's not a realistic number.
probably true, but he mentioned 30hrs per week so that is where i got my number.
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Old 04-30-2014, 01:17 AM   #7086
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Re: Is a 4 month downswing bad for cash? or does it eventually happen

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probably true, but he mentioned 30hrs per week so that is where i got my number.
wow,,,I just realized that I totally misread that, and then attempted to counter. My mistake, sorry dude. You're numbers sound accurate, I was wrong.
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Old 04-30-2014, 01:34 AM   #7087
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Re: Is a 4 month downswing bad for cash? or does it eventually happen

I've played professionally for like two years + (although only part time recently due to focusing on other things) and have only had a 4-5 break-even months. Worst downswing I even encountered lasted like a month and a half of break even play.
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Old 04-30-2014, 04:12 AM   #7088
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Originally Posted by bweezy90 View Post
I am confused. I am reading about Live cash game players who have a 4 month downswing; does this actually happen to most pros? I understand variance and it depends on the style, your opp, and table selection, but if your a winning player playing 30 hours + a week, should you really have 4 month downswings?

Any Live players have any comments or experiences they can share on this topic?


Thanks



Just to give you some perspective. My sample is 2100 hours. Half plo half hold em. In this sample my observed hourly is $78/hour. The stakes run from 2-5 nlh to 10-25 plo. 90% of my sessions are at home games. In 2013 I had two separate 500 hour break even stretches. One in early spring and one in late summer. Since my last one I am on a heater and have not had a losing month since October 2013. I average 120-130 hours per month. My standard deviation is around 900 bucks an hour.
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Old 04-30-2014, 07:48 AM   #7089
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@ break even duration. Keep in mind most players will play a range of levels just like the poster above. If T/25 only runs once a week and you have a few bad sessions at the highest stakes... and then 80% of your hours are at 2/5, the break even stretches can last a long time.
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Old 04-30-2014, 09:19 AM   #7090
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
@ break even duration. Keep in mind most players will play a range of levels just like the poster above. If T/25 only runs once a week and you have a few bad sessions at the highest stakes... and then 80% of your hours are at 2/5, the break even stretches can last a long time.
+1
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Old 04-30-2014, 11:49 AM   #7091
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi guys... I'm fairly new to the game but have decided to be smart and keep good stats. I didn't like any of the web sites/apps out there, so just went with Excel. I found some pre-made spreadsheets but didn't really like any of them.

Thought I'd share the one I just together. I like it because it's simple and lets you keep results with expenses separate from total profits.

It allows you by session to enter:

Date
Room
SB/BB
Buy-in amount (how much of your bankroll you put on the table)
Hours played
Hands/hr estimate
Expenses (e.g., tips, food)
Cash-out amount

From this it calculates, for each session and over time:
Total hands
Total win (excluding expenses)
Total profit (including expenses)
Win/hr
Profit/hr
BB/100 (win)
BB/100 (profit)
If winning session (Made a cent or more)
If profitable session (Left with a cent or more extra)
Percent winning sessions
Percent profitable sessions

And it provides a line graph.

One note, the overtime BB/100 are calculated by using a weighted average

E.g.,

Lifetime BB/100 =

(Lifetime BB/100 up to last session * total hands up to last session / total hands ever including new session) + (BB/100 last session * total hands last session / total hands ever
including this session)

This allows you to play different limits...

Pretty straight forward. Hope it helps someone.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/a96n7x2ds9mhvqy/Poker%20Results%20For2p2.xlsx

It has my sessions since I started keeping records in there for example data. The second row of results is where things start to account for data over time, for obvious reasons.
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Old 04-30-2014, 01:36 PM   #7092
nutinsider
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
@ break even duration. Keep in mind most players will play a range of levels just like the poster above. If T/25 only runs once a week and you have a few bad sessions at the highest stakes... and then 80% of your hours are at 2/5, the break even stretches can last a long time.


What bip said. I played one session in a 25-50 short handed plo match and.got murdered. This was last summer. But a few weeks ago I played 50-100 heads up and did well so some.of.my.data points are super concentrated.
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Old 04-30-2014, 01:56 PM   #7093
bweezy90
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Great info man. Much appreciated. By chance, do you have any excel spreadsheets you could send me with past results for a few months. It would be interesting to see for patterns and such. Thanks again

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Old 04-30-2014, 01:57 PM   #7094
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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
Meh, I'm not doing this for a living obv, but I turn it Session Logger on when I sit, add rebuys when needed, and cash out when I finish. There's so much win rate variance, and you're probably doing the same thing for the most part (i.e., taking a 30 minute meal break once a session), it's PROBABLY not going to make that much difference?

I would think it's way more useful to keep track of mental state and playing level during a session if possible. That would be way more productive/useful I think.


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Old 04-30-2014, 02:00 PM   #7095
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It doesnt look pretty, but seems to get the job done. Not sure if I would pay for it though. May want to wait for something else.


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Old 04-30-2014, 02:01 PM   #7096
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What bip said. I played one session in a 25-50 short handed plo match and.got murdered. This was last summer. But a few weeks ago I played 50-100 heads up and did well so some.of.my.data points are super concentrated.


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Old 04-30-2014, 02:02 PM   #7097
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Old 04-30-2014, 02:03 PM   #7098
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Old 04-30-2014, 02:04 PM   #7099
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Gotta get me one of those phones ^
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Old 04-30-2014, 02:05 PM   #7100
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