^+1

.. Never understood people who lie to themselves..

There is no standards committee... our stats don't get peer reviewed... figure out what purpose you are keeping track for - and then keep track in a manner that serves that purpose.

I would like to propose a peer review subcommittee for the win rate thread.

That's probably 90% of what this thread is used for

ossum!

Over my last 175 sessions I've won 101 of them.
So 57%.

How does that compare with other people?
Is there such a thing as a good target?

Assuming you are a good player in the first place, does playing style have an affect on that?
I.e. if I'm more laggy in general am I more likely to have a higher % of losing sessions? Or if I'm nitty would I tend to have a higher % of winning sessions?

i only have 26 sessions logged (mostly 1/2 with a little bit of 1/3) and am at 65% wins.

there's a vid on DC (can't remember who or what, but i think it was a short by shuttle or something like that) that argues if you are winning too often, it may indicate some problems in your game. i can't remember all the arguments as it didn't matter to me much.

I kind of tend to step away from the concept of having a particular "style," but I suppose if you played nittier in general you would have a higher % of winning sessions. Playing really nitty usually means you are passing up on some +EV spots that are marginal (not a big edge), and so you're only taking bigger +EV spots and ones that are more likely to net a winning pot.

It also means you're not maximizing your expectation though (as TeamKB alluded to).

Realistically, your % of winning sessions is going to have way more to do with your win-rate, average table dynamics, and average session length than what your "style" is. If most tables are mega weak-tight, and you can buy a million pots and never pay people off, AND you only play like 12-hour+ sessions, then it's conceivable that you'd win at close 100% of your sessions (if you never tilt).

Personally (though my sample is not large), I have never won significantly more than 50% of my sessions, although I think this is largely due to some of the big leaks I still have. But generally I'm winning more in my average winning session than how much I'm losing in my average losing session.

My guess is that a large part of session winning percentage boils down to average session length. The longer your sessions, and assuming you are still playing well in your xth consecutive hour, then more chance of booking a winning session if you are a winning player.

I'm currently sitting at 157 vs 60 vs 1 (72%) over 218 sessions, with average session length ~7.6 hours. But I also play in a great game and probably play a fairly conservative style.

GcluelessNLnoobG

How many hours have you put in?

OVerall win rate is supposed to be about $50 for a good player at 2/5. However, if you only play weekends, I guess it could be higher.

Either way, if you really beat online 400 NL, you re a god among monkeys at 2/5. Build your BR and start playing 5/10 if you can.

I nominate you as chair for my soon to launch Journal of Poker Studies. After that I am thinking of of launching another scientific periodical called Advanced Psychology of Donkey Behavior.

I am once a week, rec player, who has been playing seven years and been disciplined with the reading. I am used to playing very tight 1-3 casino tables in my home state of Washington. People are tight with their money around here and this is reflected at the poker tables.

Even at 1/3, spewey, spazzy villains are very rare here. Almost everyone thoroughly understands the fundamentals. Villains are mostly exploitable because they either play face up or fold to pressure too quickly on the turn.

I am a winning player, making a profit 70% - 80% of the time. This is not a common feat given the rake and uber-tight play. At a weak tight table, I can LAG it up and bash the nits. At looser tables, I play more ABC, occasionally picking spots to bluff.

That said, I am an amateur and I play for fun. I took a shot at 3-5 (the biggest game always being played at my casino) three years ago, and went through a $1.5K bankroll before going back to 1-3. (Underrolled I know, but my day job pays well and I had plenty to go back to 1/3.)

I'm a considerably better player now than three years ago. I have been thinking of taking another shot at 3-5. Should I do this in Vegas? I go there next week. Should I do it at home? Or should I avoid the better players altogether and stick with 1/3? Perhaps, I shouldn't expect to be able to match up with guys who do it for a living and play every day...

If you have the budget to sustain losing, by all means take a shot. Just be aware that playing on that small a roll, you could easily bust it even when you are +EV in the game.

What is your opinion of the Vegas 3/5 game? The 1/2 and 1/3 games are easy, if robotic, money. However, I have seen a couple higher stakes players go to Vegas and just get destroyed. Not sure how much chance was involved...

Having played 2/5 in Vegas and 3/5 in Seattle, I think the Vegas games are a bit easier overall, but they are also much more action, which means that they are higher variance.

Thank you. I appreciate it.

100 hours in the books at Mohegan Sun in CT. split between 1/2 and 1/3.

+$2493

just under $25/hr. pretty sure im running hot, but wouldn't be surprised if $12-$15 was reasonable expectation.

standard deviation is at $120/hr

how do i calculate my winrate CI, given this?

If my standard deviation is 288 would this be considered a high variance style or is this pretty standard?

288 what?

$288
288 bb?

per hr
per session?

in a 1/2 game?, 2/5 game?

I assume this is $288 / hr in mostly 1/2 or 1/3 with a bit of 2/5...

288 seems like a very low variance style. . My standard deviation is 900 ish but I play big Omaha mostly.

Sorry My last app didn't do standard deviation so not too familiar with it. It is $288.51... I don't know if that's per hour but I would assume per session? The app doesn't say. And it is all 1-2.

Edit: Ok I just saw when I dug into the stats sub-section it says my standard deviation p/h is $122.22. All 1-2

April is in the books for me, won't be playing the last few days

Finished the month +$12,583 in 121.18 hours for $103.84/hour all at 5/5 or 3/5

Biggest winning month!

Congrats Duke.
That's fantastic. Keep up the pace next month.

Seems pretty typical IMO.

wow, that is virtually identical to my April stats: +$12623/121.09 @ $104.18/hr

sustainable imo

but I plan to play more aggro last 2 days solely to hit 15k... ez game obv

My advice would be to weight all the reasons you are playing poker in Vegas next week.

Are you playing for fun / entertainment?

Are you playing to make money?

Are you playing to challenge yourself?

Are there some "bucket list" type things regarding poker you are trying to achieve?

Etc.

As long as you are comfortably rolled for the game you are going to play in, simply weight all the reasons for why you are playing poker in Vegas (which might change on a day-to-day basis depending on various factors), and then choose the option which satisfies your desires the best.

GimoG