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Old 04-22-2014, 05:41 AM   #7051
acescracked84
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
You lost 9 k during this time span? If so, that's quite scary
Yeah. I got into a lot of high variance spots and all ins during this time span and was losing almost all of them. I still run bad in general in all ins now, but I avoid them like the plague and am on a big heater the last two months.

If anyone thinks this stuff is impossible you are Asian, still running good or haven't played a lot of poker. It's very possible to run bad or hot for three years in live poker even. It's just so few hands compared to online.
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Old 04-22-2014, 10:10 AM   #7052
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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
My feeling is, if I'm at the casino, I'm working. You wouldn't take five minute chat and bathroom breaks into account for a regular job and the hourly wage. Imagine telling someone you actually earn 11.17 an hour instead of 10.00 because you calculated how much time off you take during the work day.
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Old 04-22-2014, 11:08 AM   #7053
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
I just include those 5/10 minute breaks as part of my poker playing time, as these mental breaks are typically needed and just part of the game.

I just record my start time and my end time and then round the total time to the nearest 5 minutes for Poker Journal purposes. Course, I don't miss very many hands during my session, with my longest breaks only being bathroom breaks (5 minutes or so); I also eat any meals at the table.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 04-22-2014, 11:19 AM   #7054
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As the above posters have said its really about whether you want to treat is as a calculation of an hourly in terms of a job or just to keep track of your progress as a poker player.

Personally I hit the pause button when I'm having meals but leave it running when I'm on break which is typically 7mins, or the time it takes for me to get from the HJ to UTG/BB.
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Old 04-22-2014, 11:51 AM   #7055
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Probably splitting hairs regardless of method ...
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Old 04-22-2014, 01:42 PM   #7056
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Probably splitting hairs regardless of method ...
This.

It's all just mental masturbation.

Are you trying to figure out how many hours you need to physically sit at the table a month to likely earn $500 a month? Then make sure that you keep track of your 5 minute, 10 minute, and 30 minute breaks.
But then remember, that even if you are at the table for say 20 hours a month, you are spending an average of 1 hour / month at the casino but not at the table. So, you are still spending 21 man hours to get that amount of money.

Are you are trying to determine your true win rate? Don't. Get a pretty good idea after 500 hours. Play your best poker you can the entire time, profit. It's almost impossible to ever know a true win rate for a live player.

Are you trying to determine if event A is more profitable than event b in terms of $s? Then judge it however you want, just make sure that it's consistent. If you are paid at a 'real' job from the time that you walk in until the time that you walk out, then record the time that you walk into the casino until the time that you walk out of the casino.

You can make your numbers say whatever you want for the most part. You can adjust them up or down, add in time, subtract time, add in promotions, keep track of the value of your comps, and a whole host of other things. But in the end, it's really going to just be a small part of your overall win rate. And depending which thing you include or don't include (and I'm sure you could justify each one in any direction you want) you can make you win rate say almost anything that you want.
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Old 04-22-2014, 02:08 PM   #7057
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^+1

.. Never understood people who lie to themselves..

There is no standards committee... our stats don't get peer reviewed... figure out what purpose you are keeping track for - and then keep track in a manner that serves that purpose.
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:25 PM   #7058
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I would like to propose a peer review subcommittee for the win rate thread.
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:35 PM   #7059
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I would like to propose a peer review subcommittee for the win rate thread.
That's probably 90% of what this thread is used for
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:42 PM   #7060
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Damn. She raped you so hard that your graph turned into the countdown numbers from Predator.
ossum!
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Old 04-25-2014, 08:29 AM   #7061
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Over my last 175 sessions I've won 101 of them.
So 57%.

How does that compare with other people?
Is there such a thing as a good target?

Assuming you are a good player in the first place, does playing style have an affect on that?
I.e. if I'm more laggy in general am I more likely to have a higher % of losing sessions? Or if I'm nitty would I tend to have a higher % of winning sessions?
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Old 04-25-2014, 08:45 AM   #7062
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i only have 26 sessions logged (mostly 1/2 with a little bit of 1/3) and am at 65% wins.

there's a vid on DC (can't remember who or what, but i think it was a short by shuttle or something like that) that argues if you are winning too often, it may indicate some problems in your game. i can't remember all the arguments as it didn't matter to me much.
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Old 04-25-2014, 10:56 AM   #7063
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Over my last 175 sessions I've won 101 of them.
So 57%.

How does that compare with other people?
Is there such a thing as a good target?

Assuming you are a good player in the first place, does playing style have an affect on that?
I.e. if I'm more laggy in general am I more likely to have a higher % of losing sessions? Or if I'm nitty would I tend to have a higher % of winning sessions?
I kind of tend to step away from the concept of having a particular "style," but I suppose if you played nittier in general you would have a higher % of winning sessions. Playing really nitty usually means you are passing up on some +EV spots that are marginal (not a big edge), and so you're only taking bigger +EV spots and ones that are more likely to net a winning pot.

It also means you're not maximizing your expectation though (as TeamKB alluded to).

Realistically, your % of winning sessions is going to have way more to do with your win-rate, average table dynamics, and average session length than what your "style" is. If most tables are mega weak-tight, and you can buy a million pots and never pay people off, AND you only play like 12-hour+ sessions, then it's conceivable that you'd win at close 100% of your sessions (if you never tilt).

Personally (though my sample is not large), I have never won significantly more than 50% of my sessions, although I think this is largely due to some of the big leaks I still have. But generally I'm winning more in my average winning session than how much I'm losing in my average losing session.
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Old 04-25-2014, 11:01 AM   #7064
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Over my last 175 sessions I've won 101 of them.
So 57%.

How does that compare with other people?
Is there such a thing as a good target?

Assuming you are a good player in the first place, does playing style have an affect on that?
I.e. if I'm more laggy in general am I more likely to have a higher % of losing sessions? Or if I'm nitty would I tend to have a higher % of winning sessions?
My guess is that a large part of session winning percentage boils down to average session length. The longer your sessions, and assuming you are still playing well in your xth consecutive hour, then more chance of booking a winning session if you are a winning player.

I'm currently sitting at 157 vs 60 vs 1 (72%) over 218 sessions, with average session length ~7.6 hours. But I also play in a great game and probably play a fairly conservative style.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 04-25-2014, 11:21 AM   #7065
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
Question: What are sustainable win rates for live 1/2, 2/5, 5/10? Also, what sample sizes are sufficient to determine a rough win rate?

Background:
Former online semi-pro that beat mostly 200NL with some 400NL and occasional shots at 3/6 and 5/10. Used the money to pay for tuition/room and board for a few years. Online poker went bye bye and I got away from it and spent my time partying way too much and got a "real job". Stopped partying so much and started to focus on live poker on the weekends. Built from nothing and absolutely crushed 1/2 and quickly moved up to 2/5. Current win rate is $135/hour over 100 hours of play at 2/5.

Live players, even the 2/5 regs are absolutely terrible compared to online. However, this win rate can't be sustainable, can it? I think this equates to like 100/bb 100 which is insane.

My question is:
How sustainable is this win rate?
What is an average win rate for someone absolutely crushing 2/5?
Also, what is a good # of hours to have a reliable win rate?
(Obviously you will never get the hundreds of thousands of hands you get online to somewhat accurately determine this, but you have to determine a rough win rate at some hours mark I would think)
How hot am I running?
How many hours have you put in?

OVerall win rate is supposed to be about $50 for a good player at 2/5. However, if you only play weekends, I guess it could be higher.

Either way, if you really beat online 400 NL, you re a god among monkeys at 2/5. Build your BR and start playing 5/10 if you can.
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Old 04-25-2014, 12:21 PM   #7066
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
I would like to propose a peer review subcommittee for the win rate thread.
I nominate you as chair for my soon to launch Journal of Poker Studies. After that I am thinking of of launching another scientific periodical called Advanced Psychology of Donkey Behavior.
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Old 04-28-2014, 06:20 PM   #7067
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Do I take a shot in Vegas, at home, or not at all?

I am once a week, rec player, who has been playing seven years and been disciplined with the reading. I am used to playing very tight 1-3 casino tables in my home state of Washington. People are tight with their money around here and this is reflected at the poker tables.

Even at 1/3, spewey, spazzy villains are very rare here. Almost everyone thoroughly understands the fundamentals. Villains are mostly exploitable because they either play face up or fold to pressure too quickly on the turn.

I am a winning player, making a profit 70% - 80% of the time. This is not a common feat given the rake and uber-tight play. At a weak tight table, I can LAG it up and bash the nits. At looser tables, I play more ABC, occasionally picking spots to bluff.

That said, I am an amateur and I play for fun. I took a shot at 3-5 (the biggest game always being played at my casino) three years ago, and went through a $1.5K bankroll before going back to 1-3. (Underrolled I know, but my day job pays well and I had plenty to go back to 1/3.)

I'm a considerably better player now than three years ago. I have been thinking of taking another shot at 3-5. Should I do this in Vegas? I go there next week. Should I do it at home? Or should I avoid the better players altogether and stick with 1/3? Perhaps, I shouldn't expect to be able to match up with guys who do it for a living and play every day...
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Old 04-28-2014, 06:29 PM   #7068
Garick
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Re: Do I take a shot in Vegas, at home, or not at all?

If you have the budget to sustain losing, by all means take a shot. Just be aware that playing on that small a roll, you could easily bust it even when you are +EV in the game.
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Old 04-28-2014, 06:38 PM   #7069
$FishWreck$
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Re: Do I take a shot in Vegas, at home, or not at all?

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
If you have the budget to sustain losing, by all means take a shot. Just be aware that playing on that small a roll, you could easily bust it even when you are +EV in the game.
What is your opinion of the Vegas 3/5 game? The 1/2 and 1/3 games are easy, if robotic, money. However, I have seen a couple higher stakes players go to Vegas and just get destroyed. Not sure how much chance was involved...
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Old 04-28-2014, 06:40 PM   #7070
Garick
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Having played 2/5 in Vegas and 3/5 in Seattle, I think the Vegas games are a bit easier overall, but they are also much more action, which means that they are higher variance.
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Old 04-28-2014, 06:52 PM   #7071
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Having played 2/5 in Vegas and 3/5 in Seattle, I think the Vegas games are a bit easier overall, but they are also much more action, which means that they are higher variance.
Thank you. I appreciate it.
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Old 04-28-2014, 07:55 PM   #7072
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100 hours in the books at Mohegan Sun in CT. split between 1/2 and 1/3.

+$2493

just under $25/hr. pretty sure im running hot, but wouldn't be surprised if $12-$15 was reasonable expectation.

standard deviation is at $120/hr

how do i calculate my winrate CI, given this?
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Old 04-28-2014, 09:04 PM   #7073
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If my standard deviation is 288 would this be considered a high variance style or is this pretty standard?
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Old 04-28-2014, 09:08 PM   #7074
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288 what?

$288
288 bb?

per hr
per session?

in a 1/2 game?, 2/5 game?

I assume this is $288 / hr in mostly 1/2 or 1/3 with a bit of 2/5...
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Old 04-28-2014, 09:20 PM   #7075
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If my standard deviation is 288 would this be considered a high variance style or is this pretty standard?
288 seems like a very low variance style. . My standard deviation is 900 ish but I play big Omaha mostly.
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