Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
Calling you out o. This 1 sir simply do not believe your statement that a top online grinder was b/e for 600k hands. I have played a ton online and live and know many online crushers none of whom ever went more than 50k break even. This encompasses an extremely large sample size of players and hands played. These are true crushers w/r greater than 3BB/100 online
Youre failing to take into account the massive difference between the ratio of SD to winrate in live and online poker.
The best live players make around 10bb/hr, which translates into about 30bb/100.
The best online players are making maybe what... 5bb/100. there are probably others who can probably give aq better estimate, but my understanding has always been that 5bb/100 is considered crushing most online stakes.
A lower winrate means that the same standard deviation can lead to much more severe downtrends.... think about it this way
600K hands at an expected winrate of 5bb/100 has an expectation of 30KBB. Assuming a SD of around 300BB/100 (which is around typical) you have a standard deviation for the whole 600K sample of around 23000... which means all you really have to do is run about 1.5SD below expectation or more to break even for the whole sample.
Now, assume a typical live crusher winrate of around 30bb/100 (im actually using an estimate ive seen you post)... now the expectation for 600K hands is around 180Kbb... the standard deviation is about the same live and online, so the standard deviation is going to vbe the same 300bb/100 or 23000bb for the whole sample. which puts you at a little under 8 standard deviations below expectation (a near statistical impossibility)....
Last edited by Turyia; 07-25-2013 at 01:59 AM.