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Old 07-23-2013, 03:48 PM   #5401
wj94
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

2013 so far - 172 sessions, 124 winning, 72%. Biggest downswing = $2,896, but that did include one session of 5/10 which was -$1,000. Biggest downswing in 2012 was $4,010 over 8 sessions (6 at 1/2 and 2 at 2/5), which sucked. It happens.
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Old 07-23-2013, 05:17 PM   #5402
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

need to bench mark that in bb and not $ if you are mixing it up
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Old 07-23-2013, 08:47 PM   #5403
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

combining 500000000000000000x thread to this provides no answers
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Old 07-24-2013, 02:28 AM   #5404
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by madlondoner View Post
I'm not sure it is. Most players at 1/2 are frankly staggeringly bad and by buying in short you are capping your win rate. Say you have a roll of 1k$us, then buying in a couple of times for 200$ is definitely the way to go.

You may easily run good, flop a few big hands and spin your stack up. Furthermore as commented the variance of buying in short is off the scale. People like to see flops in 1/2 (and 2/5 and 1/3 etc etc!). Too often you will go 4 ways to the flop and end up getting it in with a marginal holding because there is so much money in the middle and you have so little back. You will lose a lot of these all ins.

Also as you sit with more the rake becomes much less of a factor. If there is a jackpot in the game and they rake 10% cap 5 then 6$ will be going out of nearly every pot you win. If that pot is 4 times bigger then the same amount will still be coming out of the pot.
somehow every year i go to vegas i see the same $400 stackers at the 5/10, namely this tiny little **** named john w. who shortbuys up and down the strip all day everyday....somehow he makes enough to stick around.
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Old 07-24-2013, 10:47 AM   #5405
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by thenutlow View Post
somehow every year i go to vegas i see the same $400 stackers at the 5/10, namely this tiny little **** named john w. who shortbuys up and down the strip all day everyday....somehow he makes enough to stick around.
Or has another stream of income...400$ on 5/10 is lolz
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Old 07-24-2013, 03:00 PM   #5406
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Downswing question

Ok so I'm on a 7 game downswing. Haven't been playing bad but have been consistently card dead with the few good hands I've gotten either getting no action or have been cracked. I've run 2 positive games in the last 7 with them both being only slightly positive. The total $$ down is only like $1100 but I'm very competitive and hate losing so its more about not dominating the easy money than the financial loss.

So do you guys usually just try to play through it or take a short break? I usually play like 2-3 games a week at 1/2 an 2/5. All home games here in SC and I'm def in the top 2 players skill wise in my player pool. I feel like I haven't really tilted but the bad beats by crappy players have started to annoy me. Would you just tell me to chill out and play my game or what?

Thanks for any replies. I'm pretty much just steaming off here.
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Old 07-24-2013, 03:12 PM   #5407
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Re: Downswing question

I was tilted and was playing bad -- small mistakes, but as we all know, small mistakes can turn into big ones pretty quickly, especially if they're of the "I should have never been in this hand to begin with" variety.

I took a month off -- part because of personal commitments but part because of a downswing worse than yours in 1/2 and 2/5. I just started back last week and, through three sessions, am playing better and the results are there. This is probably the first time I actually cognizantly said "stop, take a break," so the sample size is small, but through 3 sessions it's worked.
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Old 07-24-2013, 03:12 PM   #5408
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Re: Downswing question

Imo, there are 2 components to a downswing

#1 Negative variance
#2 Bad play

imo, most downswings are set off by #1 but are then exacerbated by #2.

You need to sit down and figure out EXACTLY what are the root causes of your losing sessions. Its too easy to just say, "meh bad beat cooler suck outs..." but the reality is, if you are honest with yourself, your losing sessions will have a #2 component.

Speaking for myself, when my downswings are mostly due to #2 (90% of my downswings are due to #2), then I take time off. First one day, then 2 days, then 4 days, then 8 days until I'm back to playing my A-game.

If my downswing is merely due to #1 and I'm still playing my A-game and B-game, I just push through it. Normally doesn't last more than 2 or 3 sessions at the most.

Again, it is vital that you are honest with yourself on the nature of your downswing. It helps to keep a poker journal you can review.
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Old 07-24-2013, 04:47 PM   #5409
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Re: Downswing question

Check your range of hands played ... even a shift from NOT playing 98 v playing 9T can make a differnce. Just take a few hands out of your range, opponents will think you have tightened up (you have) and give more respect which will allow you to take down more pots without a showdown. I feel I am not playing my best when most of my hands get to a showdown. Sure, that would be a great discussion because technically you want 3 or 4 streets of value from all hands right? But the more streets you play the more you can be beat.

I also increase my raise (and less often) sizes to cut down on mutiway pots a bit.

If you feel you are pressing then a break is needed but if you are 'just playing my game' and getting hit with varriance, then just tighten the screws a bit and you will be fine.

I am finding more and more that you want to cut down on showdowns unless they are all-ins and you are putting your money in good. GL
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Old 07-24-2013, 04:52 PM   #5410
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Re: Downswing question

I think the best remedy is to keep playing and study/review more. im currently on a 10bi downswing myself and am having a hard time staying positive. im trying to just keep playing process oriented poker and analyze my game and plug any leaks I can find. Remember that if you're not playing your hourly rate is a big fat ZERO, so if you feel okay and your not tilting too bad ride it out. Heres to a sick heater!
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Old 07-24-2013, 04:55 PM   #5411
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Re: Downswing question

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Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post

Again, it is vital that you are honest with yourself on the nature of your downswing. It helps to keep a poker journal you can review.
What exactly do you mean by a poker journal? what would the contents be?
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Old 07-24-2013, 04:56 PM   #5412
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Re: Downswing question

only 2 or 3 sessions of a downswing at most? i think most people don´t realize how crazy poker variance can be. imo it is possible for a recreational live player to be on a lifetime upswing or lifetime downswing based on pure variance.
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Old 07-24-2013, 05:02 PM   #5413
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Re: Downswing question

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Originally Posted by sauhund View Post
only 2 or 3 sessions of a downswing at most? i think most people don´t realize how crazy poker variance can be. imo it is possible for a recreational live player to be on a lifetime upswing or lifetime downswing based on pure variance.
Thats a scary thought.
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Old 07-24-2013, 05:15 PM   #5414
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Re: Downswing question

Not sure this qualifies as a downswing.
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Old 07-24-2013, 05:17 PM   #5415
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Re: Downswing question

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Originally Posted by FullrackZack View Post
Thats a scary thought.
pretty easy to hit a 20k hands downswing. how much is that in live poker, 600 hours? how many beginning players would actually play through that without quitting if they actually happen to have such a downswing right from the start?
surely it is unlikely, but not as unlikely as somewhat might assume.

i´m down 2k bb in ev this month over 16k hands or so. sucks but i can take it now, and online poker is different (but only in terms of time frame), but if that had hit me when i started i´m sure i wouldnt play right now.
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Old 07-24-2013, 05:28 PM   #5416
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Re: Downswing question

When I go through a downswing I am honest with myself and ask, Is this negatively affected my future sessions, if it is mentally I take a break for as long as I need , a day, a month whatever, if its honestly not affecting my play at all, I will keep playing forever
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Old 07-24-2013, 05:54 PM   #5417
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In 650 logged hours of 1/2 NLHE I am making $18.20 a hour and in the midst of a 120 hour break even stretch.

The biggest downswing I had would be 1400bb....

That included two days in a row of playing against maniacs where I chose to short buy, sit to their immediate right and shove $150 to $200 into their light $35 openings because they would play for stacks light.

I lost around ten pots like that, only twice did I get my money in bad.

Variance against maniacs can be a *****.

The bad play within my downswing was a few bad hero calls and also calling oop with scs and axs to play 3 way pots....then just check/fold when I miss...no plan..pure fish trying to get even spew....

I have been told I could go as long as 500 hours break even easily...scary.
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Old 07-24-2013, 06:16 PM   #5418
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Re: Downswing question

Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund View Post
imo it is possible for a recreational live player to be on a lifetime upswing based on pure variance.
I resemble this remark!

Ghasyettobooka500bb"downswing"in1,217hrsatlive1/3NLG
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Old 07-24-2013, 06:19 PM   #5419
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Re: Downswing question

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I resemble this remark!

Ghasyettobooka500bb"downswing"in1,217hrsatlive1/3NLG
If this is true then you really are on a sick lifetime heater. I've lost that in one session at 1/2 on several occasions while getting it in as a massive favorite or huge cooler (set over set) each time.
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Old 07-24-2013, 07:21 PM   #5420
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Re: Downswing question

Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund View Post
only 2 or 3 sessions of a downswing at most? i think most people don´t realize how crazy poker variance can be. imo it is possible for a recreational live player to be on a lifetime upswing or lifetime downswing based on pure variance.
It for sure can be massive, if you get to feel how bad variance can strike you. But i believe in what DGI says also: the worst thing about variance is that it often will compound itself when you start playing horrible because of semitilt/frustration of variance.

I have my own way of handle bad beats,when i feel like i am about to boil over i am honest with myself to realize that- and i usually nit it up and fold hands until i feel more in balance. As i see it it is extremely important that you are able to be totally honest with yourself at this point, and dont lie for yourself. On rare ocassions i just get so tilted from ugly bad beats/coolers that i know i wont be able to play good anymore, and i just quit the session and take some days off poker.

The important thing is that you figure out a way to handle this aspect of poker- a way that will work for you. What works for person A not necessearly work for person B.
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Old 07-24-2013, 07:29 PM   #5421
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund View Post
only 2 or 3 sessions of a downswing at most? i think most people don´t realize how crazy poker variance can be. imo it is possible for a recreational live player to be on a lifetime upswing or lifetime downswing based on pure variance.
Yeah, this is something people often overlook. I had a discussion with a friend who is a top online cash grinder(he was #1 at his stake in 2011) and he told me when he almost quit when he had a 600k hand breakeven stretch. Think how many hands that is live. Most people haven't the slightest clue about what the long run is.
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Old 07-24-2013, 07:58 PM   #5422
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic View Post
Yeah, this is something people often overlook. I had a discussion with a friend who is a top online cash grinder(he was #1 at his stake in 2011) and he told me when he almost quit when he had a 600k hand breakeven stretch. Think how many hands that is live. Most people haven't the slightest clue about what the long run is.
At 30 hands/hour, 20 hours per week, 52 weeks a year ...
that's 19.23 years. HOLY. ****.
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Old 07-24-2013, 09:43 PM   #5423
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic View Post
Yeah, this is something people often overlook. I had a discussion with a friend who is a top online cash grinder(he was #1 at his stake in 2011) and he told me when he almost quit when he had a 600k hand breakeven stretch. Think how many hands that is live. Most people haven't the slightest clue about what the long run is.
yeah, but it is practically a statistical impossibility live. the same thing that happened to your friend could never happen to a live player. Playing llnl full time, even a BE year (about 50K hands) should be a once-in-a-lifetime experience for a top tier player...

Last edited by Turyia; 07-24-2013 at 10:07 PM.
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Old 07-24-2013, 09:56 PM   #5424
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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At 30 hands/hour, 20 hours per week, 52 weeks a year ...
that's 19.23 years. HOLY. ****.


Holy **** what live game are you in that you get 30 hph?
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Old 07-24-2013, 09:58 PM   #5425
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Holy **** what live game are you in that you get 30 hph?
someone posited 30 hph recently as typical and no one corrected him... youre right though, it is high.
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