Quote:
Originally Posted by bip!
Mainly I am just replying to correct this - I cannot stand engaging with SeaULater... so I will not re-reply.
Regardless of your belief in the validity of wj's stats...
wj is spot on with the application of std deviation applied to winrate and a given month. This is just statistics. If poker results fit into a normal distribution to which standard deviation can be applied, then absolutely without question... a player who averages $5000 a month is just as likely to have a $0 month as he is to have a $10000 month. Applied further, this player is equally likely to experience -$5000 as they are +$15000 dollars.
IF NOT, then distribution of monthly results would have to have skewed or biased properties, and that skew would have to have an underlying cause such as "winning prevents more winning". I would guess that in disciplined poker playing, if the results distribution is skewed at all, it would be skewed just the opposite - i.e. winning promotes more winning. Consider table image, confidence, etc. So I would say in practice, a $5k average month player is more likely to churn out a $10k month than a $0 month.
edit: well a quick google search turns up some compiled results, and results are strikingly gaussian. (most things deriving from coin flips, cards, etc are). Meaning wj is spot on. http://www.quantitativepoker.com/201...are-poker.html
Obviously statistically it is possible, and for a lot of online grinders with solid history, I would be inclined to agree with the normal distribution of standard deviation.
However, this is live, and how live players handle variance given the incredible low relative number of hands seen, it is, IMO, more likely for a 15bb winner to have BE than 30bb/month. In other words, downswing in live setting is often more than simply variance.
However, since 15bb/hr is an extreme case, I don't even see the merit of having such discussion.
Ya sure, ok, 15bb/hr player is equally likely to have 30bb month as he is BE statistically, only if poker players follow a normal distribution, which most of us do not.
Furthermore, by citing coin flips, you clearly undermined variables that poker does not follow a normal distribution.
Let's further deviate from the point that 10k/month at 1/2 is pretty unlikely by arguing the basics of statistic.
Last edited by SeaUlater; 01-03-2013 at 07:15 PM.