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Old 01-03-2013, 12:57 PM   #3326
wj94
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by 11t View Post
must be nice to run like god

at ~$30/hr you'd have to play >80 hours per week to get 10k in a month. sorry bro.
And at $60/hr you'd only have to play ~40 hours/week to get 10k in a month. Not sustainable in the long run, but certainly possible over 30 days.
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:57 PM   #3327
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If you play 100 hours in a month, making $10k means making $100/hr. $100/hr is pretty much 4.25 times the max sustainable win rate for $1/2.

You played 25 sessions of 6 hours, so you were at 125 hours. That comes out to $80/hr, which is about 3.5 times the max sustainable win rate at 1/2.

Winning at 3.5 times the max sustainable win rate at a level for over 100 hours goes far, far beyond a heater. It is probably literally the heater of a lifetime, if not several lifetimes. The reason you're facing such tough criticism ITT for claiming a $10k month is because the pople giving you a hard time realize what you apparently don't--that probabilistically speaking, it is far, far, far more likely that a random internet poster is falsely claiming to have had a $10k month than it is that he actually did it, because the doing of it is so incredibly unlikely.
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:01 PM   #3328
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If you play 100 hours in a month, making $10k means making $100/hr. $100/hr is pretty much 4.25 times the max sustainable win rate for $1/2.

You played 25 sessions of 6 hours, so you were at 125 hours. That comes out to $80/hr, which is about 3.5 times the max sustainable win rate at 1/2.

Winning at 3.5 times the max sustainable win rate at a level for over 100 hours goes far, far beyond a heater. It is probably literally the heater of a lifetime, if not several lifetimes. The reason you're facing such tough criticism ITT for claiming a $10k month is because the pople giving you a hard time realize what you apparently don't--that probabilistically speaking, it is far, far, far more likely that a random internet poster is falsely claiming to have had a $10k month than it is that he actually did it, because the doing of it is so incredibly unlikely.
6 * 25 = 150 = $66.67/hour, not $80/hr
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:08 PM   #3329
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Which part of 30bb/hr being incredibly unlikely is difficult to understand?
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:09 PM   #3330
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yep, my bad. which is nearly 3x the max sustainable win rate. Makes it the heater of a lifetime, maybe, rather than the heater of several lifetimes.

Heck, the longest I have ever sustained a $60/hr WR at 1/2 was 20 hours, lolol. 125. SMH.
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:11 PM   #3331
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Which part of 30bb/hr being incredibly unlikely is difficult to understand?
For a player that averages 15bb/hr it would have the same standard deviation as a break-even month.
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:14 PM   #3332
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If there is that much money to be made in Red Rock, grinders will be there, and eventually the incredible profit will level off.

Plus isn't RR a place for locals? Where is all that money coming from?
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:15 PM   #3333
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For a player that averages 15bb/hr it would have the same standard deviation as a break-even month.
Wtf are you talking about?
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:22 PM   #3334
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If there is that much money to be made in Red Rock, grinders will be there, and eventually the incredible profit will level off.

Plus isn't RR a place for locals? Where is all that money coming from?
Red Rock is a long drive for anyone that doesn't live in Summerlin and it's about half locals/half people I've never seen before. The money is coming from players that suck, obviously.

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Wtf are you talking about?
Player X averages 15bb/hr lifetime. Out of 12 months, we can say that Player X will win 15bb/hr 60% of the time, 30bb/hr 10% of the time, 0bb/hr 10% of the time, lose money 10% of the time, and win somewhere between 0-50bb/hr 10% of the time. The probability of Player X winning 30bb/hr over a specific time period is the same as the probability of Player X winning 0bb/hr over the same time period. Since the player is averaging 15bb/hr, both the chances of winning double that rate and winning nothing are the same, so it is not as unlikely as you are making it out to be.
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:25 PM   #3335
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Heck, the longest I have ever sustained a $60/hr WR at 1/2 was 20 hours, lolol. 125. SMH.
I'm currently on a $59.50/hr heater over my last 143.75 hours at 1/3 NL.

Ha, I remember that I ended 2011 with an 8 session win streak (still my record), but then started out 2012 with a 4 session losing streak (tying my record losing streak as well as my record downswing). So, yeah, kinda expecting a crappy start to 2013 to set the ship back on a more reasonable course.

GhardtostarboardG
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:53 PM   #3336
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Quote:
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Red Rock is a long drive for anyone that doesn't live in Summerlin and it's about half locals/half people I've never seen before. The money is coming from players that suck, obviously.



Player X averages 15bb/hr lifetime. Out of 12 months, we can say that Player X will win 15bb/hr 60% of the time, 30bb/hr 10% of the time, 0bb/hr 10% of the time, lose money 10% of the time, and win somewhere between 0-50bb/hr 10% of the time. The probability of Player X winning 30bb/hr over a specific time period is the same as the probability of Player X winning 0bb/hr over the same time period. Since the player is averaging 15bb/hr, both the chances of winning double that rate and winning nothing are the same, so it is not as unlikely as you are making it out to be.
I know what you're implying, but having a BE month for 15bb/hr player is much more likely than the opposite extreme for the obvious reason.

Anyhow, I see no point to have yet another pointless discussion about how FOS you are.
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:35 PM   #3337
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Originally Posted by SeaUlater View Post
I know what you're implying, but having a BE month for 15bb/hr player is much more likely than the opposite extreme for the obvious reason.

Anyhow, I see no point to have yet another pointless discussion about how FOS you are.
While I agree the results seem highly unlikely, I'm not sure what he has to gain by lying?
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:40 PM   #3338
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Probably the same reason why anyone would post brags.
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:25 PM   #3339
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At what point do my stats start to matter? 100 hrs? 200hrs? 500hrs?

http://imgur.com/a/sK0b0
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:50 PM   #3340
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Higher the number of hours, more telling your hourly is.

500 is a pretty good marker for live play. You should know confidently by then whether you're beating the game.
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:53 PM   #3341
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Higher the number of hours, more telling your hourly is.

500 is a pretty good marker for live play. You should know confidently by then whether you're beating the game.
Thanks SeaUlater. I just recently discovered that there is FINALLY a game open near me so this is stats since Dec 15. I am going to keep at it and should know soon enough. Im probably gonna have an idea whats its at by the summer.
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Old 01-03-2013, 05:47 PM   #3342
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Wj94, I had a 5k week at 1/2 once in 2012 so I could see how a 10k month would be possible. I made less than 7k on that month, however. You know how deep stacks could get at red rock or V. If some luck box is $1200 deep and you're that deep with him then all it takes are some good situations for you to have a monster session.
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:02 PM   #3343
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Limon said its impossible to be at 35$/hr at 1/2. Dude is lying at least he could have fabricated the story that some whale sat at his table
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:37 PM   #3344
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Limon said its impossible to be at 35$/hr at 1/2. Dude is lying at least he could have fabricated the story that some whale sat at his table
There's at least one really good whale (for giving away money, not skill-wise) at Red Rock that loves to spew, but he won't play with me anymore. Anyone that plays at RR knows who it is. He reads this forum too....he might even be reading this post...right...now. I don't know who Limon is.

Last edited by wj94; 01-03-2013 at 06:42 PM.
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:55 PM   #3345
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I know what you're implying, but having a BE month for 15bb/hr player is much more likely than the opposite extreme for the obvious reason.

Anyhow, I see no point to have yet another pointless discussion about how FOS you are.
Mainly I am just replying to correct this - I cannot stand engaging with SeaULater... so I will not re-reply.

Regardless of your belief in the validity of wj's stats...

wj is spot on with the application of std deviation applied to winrate and a given month. This is just statistics. If poker results fit into a normal distribution to which standard deviation can be applied, then absolutely without question... a player who averages $5000 a month is just as likely to have a $0 month as he is to have a $10000 month. Applied further, this player is equally likely to experience -$5000 as they are +$15000 dollars.

IF NOT, then distribution of monthly results would have to have skewed or biased properties, and that skew would have to have an underlying cause such as "winning prevents more winning". I would guess that in disciplined poker playing, if the results distribution is skewed at all, it would be skewed just the opposite - i.e. winning promotes more winning. Consider table image, confidence, etc. So I would say in practice, a $5k average month player is more likely to churn out a $10k month than a $0 month.

edit: well a quick google search turns up some compiled results, and results are strikingly gaussian. (most things deriving from coin flips, cards, etc are). Meaning wj is spot on. http://www.quantitativepoker.com/201...are-poker.html
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:58 PM   #3346
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Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks View Post
Limon said its impossible to be at 35$/hr at 1/2. Dude is lying at least he could have fabricated the story that some whale sat at his table
I do think that beating $1/3 at $35 an hour with a decent rake structure is possible. The key is probably the rake though.
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:10 PM   #3347
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Mainly I am just replying to correct this - I cannot stand engaging with SeaULater... so I will not re-reply.

Regardless of your belief in the validity of wj's stats...

wj is spot on with the application of std deviation applied to winrate and a given month. This is just statistics. If poker results fit into a normal distribution to which standard deviation can be applied, then absolutely without question... a player who averages $5000 a month is just as likely to have a $0 month as he is to have a $10000 month. Applied further, this player is equally likely to experience -$5000 as they are +$15000 dollars.

IF NOT, then distribution of monthly results would have to have skewed or biased properties, and that skew would have to have an underlying cause such as "winning prevents more winning". I would guess that in disciplined poker playing, if the results distribution is skewed at all, it would be skewed just the opposite - i.e. winning promotes more winning. Consider table image, confidence, etc. So I would say in practice, a $5k average month player is more likely to churn out a $10k month than a $0 month.

edit: well a quick google search turns up some compiled results, and results are strikingly gaussian. (most things deriving from coin flips, cards, etc are). Meaning wj is spot on. http://www.quantitativepoker.com/201...are-poker.html
Obviously statistically it is possible, and for a lot of online grinders with solid history, I would be inclined to agree with the normal distribution of standard deviation.

However, this is live, and how live players handle variance given the incredible low relative number of hands seen, it is, IMO, more likely for a 15bb winner to have BE than 30bb/month. In other words, downswing in live setting is often more than simply variance.

However, since 15bb/hr is an extreme case, I don't even see the merit of having such discussion.

Ya sure, ok, 15bb/hr player is equally likely to have 30bb month as he is BE statistically, only if poker players follow a normal distribution, which most of us do not.

Furthermore, by citing coin flips, you clearly undermined variables that poker does not follow a normal distribution.

Let's further deviate from the point that 10k/month at 1/2 is pretty unlikely by arguing the basics of statistic.

Last edited by SeaUlater; 01-03-2013 at 07:15 PM.
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:14 PM   #3348
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm currently on a $59.50/hr heater over my last 143.75 hours at 1/3 NL.

Ha, I remember that I ended 2011 with an 8 session win streak (still my record), but then started out 2012 with a 4 session losing streak (tying my record losing streak as well as my record downswing). So, yeah, kinda expecting a crappy start to 2013 to set the ship back on a more reasonable course.

GhardtostarboardG
Evidence right there, GG @ $8553 on a good run in what equates to just less than a month for a full timer.

(and btw - nice GG!)
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:22 PM   #3349
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Don't really post in this forum, but I do read it occasionally, figured I'd post my figures for 2012 (almost all at 2/5).

Profit: $23,569
Hours: 397
Hourly: $59.37
Winning sessions: 63/90 (70%)

Obviously I don't play full time, if I did I think my winrate would trend lower because of playing more at non-peak hours in nittier/reggier games. Still not bad I think haha. /small brag.
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:30 PM   #3350
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Limon is the nuts but I really think his win rate opinions are flawed. He says the $5-5 $300-1k game at the bike has a max wr of $25/hr. Plus, remember in one of Bart's podcasts he was at $11/hr for the commerce $5-10 a couple years ago.
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