yep, my bad. which is nearly 3x the max sustainable win rate. Makes it the heater of a lifetime, maybe, rather than the heater of several lifetimes.

Heck, the longest I have ever sustained a $60/hr WR at 1/2 was 20 hours, lolol. 125. SMH.

For a player that averages 15bb/hr it would have the same standard deviation as a break-even month.

If there is that much money to be made in Red Rock, grinders will be there, and eventually the incredible profit will level off.

Plus isn't RR a place for locals? Where is all that money coming from?

Wtf are you talking about?

Red Rock is a long drive for anyone that doesn't live in Summerlin and it's about half locals/half people I've never seen before. The money is coming from players that suck, obviously.

Player X averages 15bb/hr lifetime. Out of 12 months, we can say that Player X will win 15bb/hr 60% of the time, 30bb/hr 10% of the time, 0bb/hr 10% of the time, lose money 10% of the time, and win somewhere between 0-50bb/hr 10% of the time. The probability of Player X winning 30bb/hr over a specific time period is the same as the probability of Player X winning 0bb/hr over the same time period. Since the player is averaging 15bb/hr, both the chances of winning double that rate and winning nothing are the same, so it is not as unlikely as you are making it out to be.

I'm currently on a $59.50/hr heater over my last 143.75 hours at 1/3 NL.

Ha, I remember that I ended 2011 with an 8 session win streak (still my record), but then started out 2012 with a 4 session losing streak (tying my record losing streak as well as my record downswing). So, yeah, kinda expecting a crappy start to 2013 to set the ship back on a more reasonable course.

GhardtostarboardG

I know what you're implying, but having a BE month for 15bb/hr player is much more likely than the opposite extreme for the obvious reason.

Anyhow, I see no point to have yet another pointless discussion about how FOS you are.

While I agree the results seem highly unlikely, I'm not sure what he has to gain by lying?

Probably the same reason why anyone would post brags.

At what point do my stats start to matter? 100 hrs? 200hrs? 500hrs?

http://imgur.com/a/sK0b0

Higher the number of hours, more telling your hourly is.

500 is a pretty good marker for live play. You should know confidently by then whether you're beating the game.

Thanks SeaUlater. I just recently discovered that there is FINALLY a game open near me so this is stats since Dec 15. I am going to keep at it and should know soon enough. Im probably gonna have an idea whats its at by the summer.

Wj94, I had a 5k week at 1/2 once in 2012 so I could see how a 10k month would be possible. I made less than 7k on that month, however. You know how deep stacks could get at red rock or V. If some luck box is $1200 deep and you're that deep with him then all it takes are some good situations for you to have a monster session.

Limon said its impossible to be at 35$/hr at 1/2. Dude is lying at least he could have fabricated the story that some whale sat at his table

There's at least one really good whale (for giving away money, not skill-wise) at Red Rock that loves to spew, but he won't play with me anymore. Anyone that plays at RR knows who it is. He reads this forum too....he might even be reading this post...right...now. I don't know who Limon is.

Mainly I am just replying to correct this - I cannot stand engaging with SeaULater... so I will not re-reply.

Regardless of your belief in the validity of wj's stats...

wj is spot on with the application of std deviation applied to winrate and a given month. This is just statistics. If poker results fit into a normal distribution to which standard deviation can be applied, then absolutely without question... a player who averages $5000 a month is just as likely to have a $0 month as he is to have a $10000 month. Applied further, this player is equally likely to experience -$5000 as they are +$15000 dollars.

IF NOT, then distribution of monthly results would have to have skewed or biased properties, and that skew would have to have an underlying cause such as "winning prevents more winning". I would guess that in disciplined poker playing, if the results distribution is skewed at all, it would be skewed just the opposite - i.e. winning promotes more winning. Consider table image, confidence, etc. So I would say in practice, a $5k average month player is more likely to churn out a $10k month than a $0 month.

edit: well a quick google search turns up some compiled results, and results are strikingly gaussian. (most things deriving from coin flips, cards, etc are). Meaning wj is spot on. http://www.quantitativepoker.com/201...are-poker.html

I do think that beating $1/3 at $35 an hour with a decent rake structure is possible. The key is probably the rake though.

Obviously statistically it is possible, and for a lot of online grinders with solid history, I would be inclined to agree with the normal distribution of standard deviation.

However, this is live, and how live players handle variance given the incredible low relative number of hands seen, it is, IMO, more likely for a 15bb winner to have BE than 30bb/month. In other words, downswing in live setting is often more than simply variance.

However, since 15bb/hr is an extreme case, I don't even see the merit of having such discussion.

Ya sure, ok, 15bb/hr player is equally likely to have 30bb month as he is BE statistically, only if poker players follow a normal distribution, which most of us do not.

Furthermore, by citing coin flips, you clearly undermined variables that poker does not follow a normal distribution.

Let's further deviate from the point that 10k/month at 1/2 is pretty unlikely by arguing the basics of statistic.

Evidence right there, GG @ $8553 on a good run in what equates to just less than a month for a full timer.

(and btw - nice GG!)

Don't really post in this forum, but I do read it occasionally, figured I'd post my figures for 2012 (almost all at 2/5).

Profit: $23,569
Hours: 397
Hourly: $59.37
Winning sessions: 63/90 (70%)

Obviously I don't play full time, if I did I think my winrate would trend lower because of playing more at non-peak hours in nittier/reggier games. Still not bad I think haha. /small brag.

Limon is the nuts but I really think his win rate opinions are flawed. He says the $5-5 $300-1k game at the bike has a max wr of $25/hr. Plus, remember in one of Bart's podcasts he was at $11/hr for the commerce $5-10 a couple years ago.

Yeah I seen the convo between bart, limon, bryce and zach on twitter. Limon is obviously leveling.

What do you consider a good sample size for live play?

Lol I just asked this on the last page. I was told 500 hours. Makes sense IMHO.

Can I even take a shot with a $1500 bankroll at 1/2 NL? Is it even close to a workable roll? I have a job and the money is replaceable...just wondering if its a close enough bankroll to take a shot at 1/2 with? maybe buy in for 75 bbs?