A friend showed me a sim and I don't understand how we're possibly making up enough equity in addition to our gutter equity to float?!

BB vs BU 6max. Flop AQ6 . BU cbets 1.25x overbet. BB ends up calling all the gutters KJ/KT/JT .
Why? IP is going to barrel a lot as he has a strong pretty polarized range, right?
BB only has 16% pure equity with his gutshot if he realizes both streets all the time, but he needs 35.7% equity to make it a breakeven flop call. And after turn checkback, on river BB will probably only be able to valuebet AJ and maybe AT, and a couple random 2pairs that BB turns or rivers. for a 3/4-pot size that's only roughly 10-13 combos of the gutters that can end up bluffing. that leaves us with like 30 combos of gutters that called a flop overbet way behind with no way to win the pot?

Clearly I'm missing some really important concept because the solver is calling all of them. Can anyone help? Thank you

There's usually a combination of elements at play here. Most of what is happening is that on AKx/AQx boards, in BTNvBB situations, the solver will recognize the lack of QQ+/AQ+ in
the BB range, paired with BTN inclusion of this range, representing a huge nut disparity from one range to the other, and begin to apply maximum pressure with a considerable amount of the BTN range as soon as possible. In the case of the BTN this will mean turning the x/pair portion of the AQx (in your case 6x region and Qx region) into overbets. So what will happen is that often the KJ/KT/JT region of BB range will not only have one pull to the nuts but often an additional pull to 3+outs and removal of the A/Face combination of BTNs range.. It's important to recognize also that drawing to the nuts as BB here represents significant implied odds as when we hit our gutshots it'll be likely that our opponent both often improves AND/OR continues to put multiple streets in the pot as either value bets or bluffs.

There's more to be said about solvers than I can't type here. One really great takeaway though is it's important to really spend some time with solvers and figure out their language. Solvers operate within a completely confined set of rules so sometimes it's a matter of figuring out what rules may be in place that limits the solver's ability to not make practical decisions (in this case it's actually not something that's limiting the solver's decision, it is however actually ->); and then other times and more importantly it's the solver pointing out principles that we can't readily see. It's important when you see something that you don't understand to first clarify which is most likely to be happening and to what degree.

This. A gutshot to the nuts becomes way more valuable than a static bluff-catcher in this situation. This is especially true when you expect to face heavy aggression and multiple streets of betting.

I should also point out that the gutshot is not alone in a vacuum. If you gave BB only gutshots they would prob fold range. But as a part of the range of made hands that call and nutted hands you trap with, it becomes much more valuable.

I think there are 2 option. If we hit we probably get paid-good reward.
KQ,KJ Axx board could have showdown value..still...

Lots of bet/call could go ch ch later streets.


Still fold EV quite close with calling range. So folding KQ,KJ,JT you won't make big mistake tough

It depends what he puts in his opponents range based on what the solver does. So if he puts a button range you gonna float more cause his button range is wider where against the utg range we would be floating less cause their range is a lot stronger. It just depends on the ranges he put in for the opponent and how frequently he is cb the flop.

Well no IP cant barrel that much ott so a good amt oop gets to fully realize. K high is often the best hand otf as well, and IP does overbet with a lot of weak hands otf. if you are folding KJ you are just massively, massively overfolding. JTo with the backdoor equity needs to float too, and probably even JTo no backdoor at decent frequency

not sure where you get solver floats all gutshots. happened to run AQ3hh and oop is folding JTo no heart, KTo no heart around 50-80% freq depending on suits

I saw it in the kanu7 course on his solver on AQ6r vs 1.3 overbet BBvBU , all the gutshots were calling with the same color as all the Ax that are always calls


Thanks for all the replies guys!

That might make more sense being rainbow.

This post meh dood

Also it depends on what bet sizings you are running on later streets also im assuming the stack depth is 100bb if so this can change the flop nash equilibrium strategies quite a bit.