$1-$2 NL
Saturday night: 2am

MP ($600) Unknown. Just joined the table. 40 year old conservative looking woman who is knitting in between hands. Does this mean she will play conservatively? Or that she just doesn't know what she's doing?
LJ ($600) LAG fish. The reason we are all here. He makes terrible bluffs and will pay you off with very little.
HJ ($700) TAG. Strong player.

Hero is UTG ($650) with 22

Hero limps. MP limps. LJ raises to $20. HJ calls $20. Hero calls $20. MP calls $20.
4 players
Pot = $83

Flop: T54
Everyone checks

Turn: 2
Hero checks. MP checks. LJ bluffer bets $37. HJ folds. Hero raises to $100. MP pushes all-in for $580. LJ reluctantly folds. Hero ??

It costs $480 more to win a pot of $800.
As with all hands, having a solid read makes the decision much easier. I don't have that here.
What should we do?

Please advise.

--CM

With the villain you described I can definitely get behind a call here. A 10x raise preflop feels like a big pocket pair or AKss AQss and is trying to take down the pot on the turn

inb4 he shows 1010.

Fold. 55 would be a super close spot vs someone that's literally knitting at the table

Ah thought the bluffer was the raiser so I change my post to a fold

On one side of the equation we have a woman who has checked twice and this board is kinda wet in the fact that 1/2 players always think everyone has the straight or the flush. On the other side of the equation, she is literally knitting which kinda skews me to think her range is like super narrow.

TT/55 I call
44 I flip a coin
22 I probably fold

She is literally knitting at the table? It's a fold.

Pot the turn the first time around. Don't risk this checking through twice.

+1

Knitting at 2am is humorous. less than 1 in 20 times she shows up with KK or QQ I suppose, because anything is possible, but this is a gross, but clear, fold.

A new, even nittier nit. A knit.

Ya I like a fold here


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The whole 2AM knitting thing by a 40 year old who just happens to be 300bbs deep in a 1/2 game sets off my BS detector. Something is up here. Wrong time, wrong age, wrong stack size. Or do I need to get out more?

I really want to call. I won't because I'm probably leveling myself.

I mean, if someone who is trying real hard to make me think they are nitty shoves big on me after I went check/check and raised a stab by a habitual bluffer it is going to make me paranoid. Still folding, because if I have to go that far down the rabbit hole trying to talk myself into what amounts to a hero call in a 1/2 game I assume I'm just seeing things and maybe it is time to go home.

She is wearing a hat that was clearly knitted in the last couple of hours. Now she's working on a scarf.
Bizarre scene.

Normally, definitely.
On this table, bluffer will always spew. And once he does, he gets sticky and defends his bluffs.
That's where they money is right now.

So we are putting her on a higher set then?
And she was playing the bluffer the same way I was by checking to him twice?
The super slowplay check raise push play didn't feel like it matched a knitter.
Whatever that means.

At the table, I was thinking more about how the turn could have helped her.
It brought a Flush Draw and filled a couple of straight draws.
Would she push with either of these?
Or am I thinking along to wrong lines?

--cm

K3ss, knitting to maximize FE. WP, knitting lady!

Think I'd fold in game w/o any other reads. Her line is weird with a straight or a higher set, but much less weird than her doing this with worse after we c/r.

Easy fold.

Not exclusively, but when we have a higher set it means that we beat the lower sets which overall means we beat more of her range and when we have a lower set, we beat less of her range because the higher sets are in her range.

I didn't do any calcs on it, but I'm guessing that when we have 22, calling this massive ship, from an EV standpoint, is going to be close. With TT/55 I don't think it is going to be close. That's all I was alluding to.

I dont understand threads like this. She made a massive all in and you have a pretty strong hand that should never be folded to most people. You are flat out asking all of us to guess whether or not she has a higher set. You are at the table, not us. The only thing we have to go on is your description of villain and your description of villain is slanted to make all of us say to fold.

If you want to know if you should fold to a massive over bet to a conservative looking woman who is knitting at the table, the answer is Yes.

Translation = If she were not knitting, you would likely call?

Your leveling yourslf

I dont know. You mention shes "conservative looking", whatever that is, which influences us to say to fold. Whats conservative looking about her? Is she Amish?

It's a surface read at most. I've never seen her play.
So throw it out for the moment.
What do you do without a read?
Sounds like you're calling without a good reason to fold?

--cm

No, I'm probably folding most of the time. I think people tend to overbet shove like this a lot more with a monster than they do as a bluff. Of course she could think 45 is a monster here, but I doubt it.

Her play makes very little sense and I think vs someone like this, I'll have other chances to get her money. You've shown strength by making a healthy raise and shes still shoving huge money in. Id rather be wrong and miss the opportunity to win a huge pot than to be wrong and lose a huge pot. Im folding.

I'm just folding because we have no information asides from that she knits while she plays. Maybe the knitting is apart of her strategy though and she really has 45, 67ss or A10, or JJ. I don't know. It's definitely easy to stereotype her and assume she's an actual nit because of her age/look/knitting. Weird spot. You haven't invested that much though and it's great discipline to be able to fold a set. Not that we want to make a habit of folding sets.

Results?

If we give her reasonable semi-bluff hands and sets we have about 50% equity depending on the fine points. If we give her sets/A3s we have 8.5%. It seems intuitive (but possibly wrongish) to estimate that if we think it twice as likely that she has a set than a semi-bluff we have about the midpoint of the two, or a bit less than 30%.

So, even with a touch of paranoia this isn't the hill to die on.

Fold.

AT is the only thing you beat but its a long shot