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When Should I Fold This? If Ever? When Should I Fold This? If Ever?

05-17-2015 , 02:07 AM
The game is around $1.5/$4, but is in a foreign currency so the game will be written as a 10/25 game from here on out.

H is a TAG-ish player with a decent image. Rarely gets too out of line and is learning to find the fold button more with bigger hands. I've shown down AA a few times and also a boat. Honestly my hands PF have either been AA or trash, so I haven't been playing many hands.

V is a very aggressive player who moves around on the tight-loose spectrum. On this particular day, he was by far the most prolific 3-bettor and raiser at the table. He hammers people relentlessly with good-sized bets and has respectable reads. The times he loses the most money are when he gets a little draw-happy, like shoving with naked flush draw type stuff OTF when faced with a bet; and also when he might be getting the correct price to flip, but misreads the situation and he's actually behind.

History: it must be my lucky day, because I played AA vs AK, once IP, once OOP against V. Stacked him the first time PF for 2000ish, and took down a 4-bet pot of around 2.5k the second time with a 2k flop bet on a dry board.

H hand history: AA more times than I deserve, but otherwise very few playable hands. AQo once, TT once, mid SC once or twice, small PP 4-5 times over 5+ hours. My hand has contained a K an absurd number of times (but never AK/KK), and I've been staying afloat taking down a medium sized pot with KQ/KJ when flopping TPGK against scrubs.

Folds to H calls in MP with KJ
H raises to 150 (standard at the table)
LP calling station calls
BTN meh player calls
V is in the SB, and he calls

Before V calls, I ask him if he's going to 3-bet me again. He's done so on multiple occasions before (successfully), but unfortunately for him, has also run into my AA for big pots more than once.

Flop (600): 3 5 J
V donks for 300
H calls
LP calls
BTN folds

Flopping TPGK, I think I'm hold the best hand at this point. LP has been seen calling with nothing or nothing good OTF a whole lot. Should I raise here? One reason for not raising was that I didn't have a hand that wanted a huge pot.

Turn (1500): Q
V bets 800
H mini-tank-calls
LP folds

I think it's pretty hard for him to rep a Q here unless he has something like QJ. V is not the type to be making a lot of bets with air. I'm calling to play against Jx, 22, 44, 66-TT, and straight/flush draws. Obviously, I'm way behind monsters and overpairs.

River (3100): K

V checks
H bets 2000
V tank-calls

Binking the river made life easier for me. All of the reasonable draws missed. My main concern on the river was how much to bet.

Although now that I'm thinking about it more, what hands do I beat OTR that I wasn't ahead of OTT? Only 53/AJ/QJ/AA? Should I have considered checking behind here? Given his donk/donk/check line, what hands am I most likely to see?

As far as the rest of the hand goes:
Fold PF - folds to me with a decent hand, I think it's okay to raise here?
Fold Flop - seems like a pretty unreasonable option facing a 1/2 PSB with TPGK
Raise Flop - anythoughts?
Fold turn - this is the part of the hand I was the most unsure about
Raise turn - getting too out of line?
Check river - see above

Let me know.
Thanks!
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-17-2015 , 03:06 AM
I think you played it fine against so called V. Against some passive guy who would check turn with Jx, turn is a fold I guess.
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-17-2015 , 03:13 AM
I'd fold turn with a player behind me and without having a flush draw. River is always a value bet.

EDIT: Clarify river card? River is the Kh which is in your hand
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05-17-2015 , 03:19 AM
Sorry, it was a K that didn't complete either flush. Let's say the K
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-17-2015 , 06:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GodSendDeath
I'd fold turn with a player behind me and without having a flush draw. River is always a value bet.

EDIT: Clarify river card? River is the Kh which is in your hand
Based on how LP has been playing so far, he was likely floating with random cards or a draw. A large part of his range are hands like 2nd pair, flush draws, gutshots, maybe AK. I did consider LP when calling, but I thought he was folding a pretty significant amount of time on the turn Q.

With that said, though, should I be folding the turn anyways? I don't think V would donk into me (as the PF raiser) with air, and he is also capable of slowing down on the turn if he was fooling around with 2nd pair OTF.

Obvious, I'm not scared of any 2-pair hands when I bink the river, but let's say the river was something like a 2, 9, or A. I'm probably checking behind if checked to, but am I folding to a 3rd bet?
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-17-2015 , 09:17 AM
Stack sizes?

You might be better off leaving off river action (or at very least V's response) to avoid any results bias in responses. Just a suggestion.

I don't like raising KJo in MP; it's a routine fold for me. You're going to often find yourself in situations where you've got a hand that wants to play a small pot, except the raise has already started building a big one.

V has a hand on the flop. He's not likely donking half a pot into three opponents (one of them loose passive) expecting to steal it. The worst hand I'd put him on is some sort of combo draw including clubs.

Consistent with that, his bet sizing doesn't seem like he's trying to get it all in (he has at least a 3K stack).

Feels like he has a TP kind of hand (most overpairs would have reraised pre). He might have an AJ or might have a worse jack. You're probably slightly ahead of his range. If you raise, he may shove a big combo draw. If he's got a weaker jack, there's some chance he'll fold depending on his predilections and actions behind us.

If you flat the flop, we're providing attractive odds for people behind us. If we raise, we're putting a sizable chunk of our stack in with a distinctly small pot hand.

I don't like either of these options. I would probably flat, but I can see very good arguments for raising. If I raise, I'm done with the hand unless I get HU with V.

Turn is good news/bad news. We're not heads up, but opponent behind us is loose/passive so he's not going to be putting us to tough decisions. I'd expect a raise with a monster even from a loose passive, so that's tentatively on the good side. V's actions are still consistent with a TPish type of hand.

I think raising the turn is bad. If V behind us were aggressive, I'd probably find a fold. As played, I call and evaluate river.

On the river, our hand has improved, the clubs missed, and V has checked. Yippee. Our hand is probably best and can get called by worse so we can b/f for value. I'd probably have bet smaller, but you will have a better sense how big V will call with worse hands.
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05-17-2015 , 10:58 AM
Grunch: What are stack sizes? Hand seems fine throughout. I like the river bet, though I'd go half pot instead of 2/3, assuming that there's not a ton behind and that he's not likely to bluff raise. He has a lot of FD that hit a K or a Q in his range, and will likely call since he now beats what was TP OTF.
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05-17-2015 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Case2
Stack sizes?

You might be better off leaving off river action (or at very least V's response) to avoid any results bias in responses. Just a suggestion.

I don't like raising KJo in MP; it's a routine fold for me. You're going to often find yourself in situations where you've got a hand that wants to play a small pot, except the raise has already started building a big one.

V has a hand on the flop. He's not likely donking half a pot into three opponents (one of them loose passive) expecting to steal it. The worst hand I'd put him on is some sort of combo draw including clubs.

Consistent with that, his bet sizing doesn't seem like he's trying to get it all in (he has at least a 3K stack).

Feels like he has a TP kind of hand (most overpairs would have reraised pre). He might have an AJ or might have a worse jack. You're probably slightly ahead of his range. If you raise, he may shove a big combo draw. If he's got a weaker jack, there's some chance he'll fold depending on his predilections and actions behind us.

If you flat the flop, we're providing attractive odds for people behind us. If we raise, we're putting a sizable chunk of our stack in with a distinctly small pot hand.

I don't like either of these options. I would probably flat, but I can see very good arguments for raising. If I raise, I'm done with the hand unless I get HU with V.

Turn is good news/bad news. We're not heads up, but opponent behind us is loose/passive so he's not going to be putting us to tough decisions. I'd expect a raise with a monster even from a loose passive, so that's tentatively on the good side. V's actions are still consistent with a TPish type of hand.

I think raising the turn is bad. If V behind us were aggressive, I'd probably find a fold. As played, I call and evaluate river.

On the river, our hand has improved, the clubs missed, and V has checked. Yippee. Our hand is probably best and can get called by worse so we can b/f for value. I'd probably have bet smaller, but you will have a better sense how big V will call with worse hands.
Sorry, forgot about stack sizes. I have around 7,000 at the beginning of the hand. V covers me, so we're quite deep, almost 300bb.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Grunch: What are stack sizes? Hand seems fine throughout. I like the river bet, though I'd go half pot instead of 2/3, assuming that there's not a ton behind and that he's not likely to bluff raise. He has a lot of FD that hit a K or a Q in his range, and will likely call since he now beats what was TP OTF.
From what I know about V (I've played with him a decent amount), he's not one to bluff with air (like a busted draw or like 44) on the river.. He's got at least a SDV hand at the river, and I think I could realistically fold to a raise OTR. However, I think he's almost always betting the river if he's got KJ beat (KQ, sets, insanely played BD straight), but can check/call with worse hands.

Smaller river bet because...afraid of raise? Or because it's too big for a second best hand to call? I dunno if this is relevant, but I think V would bet about this amount if he bet (so he would see this size as "normal").
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-17-2015 , 01:13 PM
Vs range otf is lots of Jx and draws and of course 33, 55. I'm raising/folding the donk bet some of the time flatting some of the time.

Based on turn action I think v has QJ, Qxcc incl KQcc, KTcc, sets.

So river K we are value targeting Kx FDs, QJ.

6 combos of sets, 1 combo of KQcc, 1 combo 9Tcc, 1 combo ATcc beat us. 9 likely combos beat us.

There are 6 combos QJ. To be profitable a value bet needs to be good more than 50% when called. So if he has KTcc, K9cc that's a total of 8 combos we beat that will call a reasonable bet. We need a few more hands in his river calling range. There may be but we are looking to be hero called. So if you think v will bluff catch / hero we can value bet. Vs a tight player we prob aren't getting called by worse enough to be profitable unless we make it very small.
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05-17-2015 , 01:18 PM
Edit above. He never checks AT OTR so remove that from his range. Liven v description I think there is enough hands he will call light that we can value bet river and be called by worse 60%.

As for the question in the title, turn could be a fold but if I'm assigning a fair number of FDs to his range a call is ok but if that was my read on the flop I'm more likely to raise there. So it can go either way IMO.
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-17-2015 , 01:20 PM
Quote:
Smaller river bet because...afraid of raise? Or because it's too big for a second best hand to call?
More the second, though when I'm bet/folding, I tend to go on the smaller side of "normal" partly to save money when raised. Mostly though, I'm targeting a weak range, so I think I get value more often with a smaller bet.
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-18-2015 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
Vs range otf is lots of Jx and draws and of course 33, 55. I'm raising/folding the donk bet some of the time flatting some of the time.

Based on turn action I think v has QJ, Qxcc incl KQcc, KTcc, sets.

So river K we are value targeting Kx FDs, QJ.
Are we ever getting called by worse when we raise the flop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
More the second, though when I'm bet/folding, I tend to go on the smaller side of "normal" partly to save money when raised. Mostly though, I'm targeting a weak range, so I think I get value more often with a smaller bet.
I dunno if this is actionable, but V was grumbling about how stupid the run-out was. I'm not particularly sure if it was before or after I put my bet in.

Results:
Spoiler:
V calls the 2,000. I show my hand and he shows 53 for bottom 2.


I think I may have actually played this hand wrong given what I know about V. I don't believe he's donking with air, and when he puts in a bet again on the turn, I have to imagine his hand is at most only a little concerned about the Q. The Q and K OTT/R did hit a lot of 2p hands in my range given I called both the flop and turn, and he appropriately checked the river.

I suppose a busted flush draw is also a possibility, but I dunno if he would donk a second time with a missed flush draw OTT.

Are we really ahead enough of the time OTT to call the bet? I'm not sure which side of the bad call + bink vs good call + bink the turn call was.
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote
05-18-2015 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by edman218
Are we ever getting called by worse when we raise the flop?

I tend to raise "bad" players donks in a couple ways (very exploitable ways) depending on what I've observed their donking range to be and whether I'm bluffing or value betting. Against good players capable of leading strong I'm not raising one pair nearly as often.

I rarely see them donk/fold their draws though to a reasonable raise so the ones that habitually donk their 8 and 9 out draws I raise a fair amount... Esp if I block some outs for their range.
When Should I Fold This? If Ever? Quote

      
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