let me start out by saying I wasn't sure how to search for a thread like this so mods feel free to delete/move/close this thread.


I am fairly new to live 1/2 hold em and I lost a BI recently on a hand in which a total action junkie woke up with a hand. I am determined not to make this mistake again and am certain I played the hand correctly.

That being said, against an opponent who regularly gets it in with top pair low kicker, how do we decide whether they hit a hand or playing their usual crappy hand? Is it correct to get it in for value and hope they haven't hit (I suspect it's theoretically correct, but not in a sense of winning the most money possible.)

Anyways thoughts on this matter would be greatly appreciated.

I hate to plug my own thread, but the last theory thread on that subject i recal is this one:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-range-928642/

My conclusion was that

when u have the best hand get it in
when u are beat just check or fold unless u have odds to hit a draw

My question was how to determine if I have the best hand (I know I have the best hand here against this villain >80% of the time) but even terrible players hit big hands sometimes. I think value betting here and getting it in is correct, but I wanted to know if there is any good way to determine if a laydown is possible.

When villain stares at his chips before betting! Duh!

Hero: $110
Villain: $225

Hero dealt: QT on the button

Five players limp and hero follows along.

Pot ($10)
Flop:
KJ3

four checks, hero bets 8$, two callers

Turn ($31)
A

Two Checks, Hero bets $20, 1 Caller

River ($69 lol)
5

Villain Jams, Hero?


This is obviously an easy call given villain would make this play with two pair, Ax, Any set, etc. This is based on maybe 5-10 hands of play and he has gotten it in twice with top pair no kicker.

My question, how do I get away from this hand when I am beat, and more importantly, how do I know if the villain wakes up with a flush the few time he does? Or should I simply chalk it up to variance?

You don't. If he caught runner runner flush and paid 2/3 pot on turn to get there, don't worry. You'll get your money back.

Put villain on a range and play against it. If he has you crushed but you got it in good against his realistic range, so be it.

Also, tells are very important.

I think OP is asking how to determine the best hand against weak-passives who take the same line with TPNK as with 2pair

Nope, I have both those hand beat in the above hand? I was asking how to determine when a bad villain who calls down light wakes up with the nuts.

why, theres a universal tell that i use to determine whether villains have the nuts or not.

Plz tell me big papa.

Back the truck up a bit.

First, why is he a bad villain? What are his tendencies? Is he a calling station that suddenly ships, or is he always an action junkie looking to get it in any chance he can? When does he get active with his TP/NK - when he hits it, or will he wait until the river?

In this hand, yeah, I call. If I got backdoored, then FML and reload.

It involves an Oreo cookie.

You hit the nail no the head. I mentioned earlier in the thread, he has gotten it in with top pair no kicker multiple times and is an action junkie but this was after the hand I mentioned, but this guy would bet two dollars into a twenty dollar pot on the flop and continue his $2 bet 3 streets then call an all in on the river with top pair no kicker. The second time he got it in with top pair he bet twenty dollars into a 15 dollar pot with a similar hand. He was drunk and looking to gamble, no rhyme or reason. This is why I mentioned I was sure I played correctly, I just was seeing if there is any way to avoid this based on reads, tells, bet sizing, etc.

When you add in "drunk" everything else goes out the window.

i would have folded the river in your hand

Can you give your reasoning?

Its a cooler. This is poker. Get used to it. Variance is a bitch.

There is no justification for folding this hand against this villain.

i read souls for a living

True story

These two statements are mutually exclusive.

Just chalk it up to variance

considering what we think about villain, flop bet is good since you take down the pot a decent amount of the time. On turn, I would throw out a big bet, like $30-35, he's never folding any piece of this board after he calls flop bet. On river, easy decision to call river based on your reads vs the gambler. If this was anyone else that was fairly tight on the river, I (consider) folding if he shoved, most arent bluffing to often in that spot