Specifically at live low stakes, maybe 1/2 or 1/3 in particular, I know most of the guys at my casino on a given night must be losing players but what % of the player type you'd find here (who are actively studying and always aiming to improve) would you guess are winning players when dropped into a live 1/3 game?

Not sure where this thread is going...

But to answer the question, I'd guess most posters (80%?) who post semi-regularly+ in this forum beat their LLSNL game.

Goverestimating?G

GG ill take the under on that one

I saw a hand in LA once where the button limped and the sb completes and bb checked.

The entire pot went down the hole and there was $0 pot on the flop and they were happy to check it down.

1/2nl in Socal the paradox.

In b4 locked, barely.

nh, well played fella’s.

I'm not even going to guess an answer to that.

I will note that one thing I see at Parx is 2/5 Lags that are +EV at 2/5 but -EV sitting at 1/2 because they can't adjust. The 1/2 game requires a more value heavy style with less preflop bluffing and less barreling. Because of that I suspect there are some regular posters here that are winning players who would be -EV dropped into a random 1/2 or 1/3 game.

if you were closer you would have heard them whisper "do you have a jackpot hand? ok check it down" before the flop.

Likely pretty low. The average level of each response has seemingly gotten worse since 5+ years ago. Which is a great thing because I’ve found that live poker is softer now than back then. Obv some better pros moved on to other things/jobs in life and/or just realized its often best to avoid posting here...

I'm actually really surprised by the responses and I strongly disagree. I would guess ~95% of the semi regular posters win. Why do I think this? 1) LLSNL villains are so so so bad; I genuinely believe it's hard to lose if you're putting effort in; 2) I consider myself in the lowest tier of regular posters on here and I destroy 1/2, and have been a small winner at 2/5 (though too small of a sample size to draw conclusions.)

I'm not sure? In the end, LLSNL is *extremely* easy to beat (not crush, just beat for even a very small amount); anyone who puts in just a little bit of study (such as being a semi-reg+ poster here) could probably manage it. Heck, I'm pretty sure that if you simply stuck to a very tight rigid preflop starting guide that you'd eke out a profit in most games (a very small one, but a profit) even without a massively solid postflop game.

GbutIoverestimatepeopleallthetime,soImightbewrongG

In this forum's mind probably >95%.

In reality I'd imagine well below 50%.

When adjusting for "are they winning now" versus "are they actually a winning player" that number drops further.

also huge +1

I agree with GG that a large majority of the regular posters here are winning. The lurkers, I don't know. But for those who post often, I've started to make a few small adjustments after reading their threads here and become a regular winner. I still make LOTS of mistakes and have lots to learn, but I see the even bigger mistakes made by the standard villain and know better how to take advantage of them now.

The percentage of winners overall is like 5%. Sure, it's going to be substantially higher among 2p2ers, but these estimates are grossly disproportional. 1/2 and 1/3 rake is brutal.

Interesting question. I honestly have no idea. I assume of the regulars, 60% to 75%? What's a regular, though, and how many are honest? I agree with GG that being a small winner isn't tough -- might be boring, but it's pretty easy.

It's hard to figure because most of us try to move up in stakes once we are beating 1/2 and 1/3. I play regularly at those stakes because that's what's offered, but if I lived closer to a casino, I'd be playing 2/5 and PLO.

Honestly I haven't played live 1/2 or 1/3 in quite awhile.

I do dabble at 1/2 online and do ok sometimes.

Might be a reach but I'd like to say I could beat the game.

Cheating or non-cheating?

Glolz,ImakethejokesforyouG

Grunch.

Winning, as in a 1 BB/hr winrate? Or is there a certain B/E threshold I’m unaware of?

Of the people who post on here, I would hope 99% of them win.

I’ve been winning since day one, literally, so although there are losing sessions along the way, I’ve never been in the hole. I realize that doesn’t mean I was a winning player when i started although I was also learning as I played. This was just over a year ago.

I can’t image putting in effort and still losing at live 1/3. . Online, very possible especially at 200 nl or high stakes HUSNGs. You would have to have a weak mental game, tilt frequently, and have several leaks you’re unaware of. As this would all counteract the additional knowledge you’re gaining.

Once you factor in various forms of tilt and of course rake it makes sense that a lot of players don’t stand a chance. Rake sucks a ton since everyone’s stacks are getting exponentially shorter by the minute and with all the nits out there you can’t afford to be one yourself if you want to crush.

But yeah if we’re taking 1 BB/hr profit I’d guess 99%. 10 BB/hr maybe 10% . 15 BB/hr maybe 2%.

Another thing to consider is that 15 BB/hr at 1/2 = $30. Whereas 2 BB/hr at 10/20 = $40. So I’d imagine most of the low stakes crushes on here move up quickly.

Define cheating. hahaha

You think 1 out of 10 semi-regs+ in this forum are at 10 bb/hr? Highly doubt that.

Agree that a high percentage are winning (i.e. 1+ bb/hr), although 99% might seem a little high (I could be wrong).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Lol not trying to get a thread locked or anything, I'm just starting out taking studying more seriously and was looking to get a feel for statistically where you all felt that the community here would fall whether that's like 10-20% winners or more 70-80% if grouped into the same game like 1/3.

My viewpoint is skewed since several of my friends either currently crush live poker or have the capacity to (10 BB/hr+) if they were interested. Fairly quickly too. We’re used to playing chess at a ultra high level and 1/2 and 1/3 live is a joke in comparison. So is 10/20 live.

But that’s without much studying.

OP is referring to people who put in significant time on their game off the table. So those would be my guesses in that case.

^ RoadtoPro you say that, but then you completely butchered this JJ hand at 1/2 a few weeks back.

You’re helping my point. Still booked a 400 BB win that session and the one after despite me being terrible. That’s how easy it is.

In fairness I don't think RoadToPro is putting himself in the 10bb+ category? We all butcher hands from time to time and probably all have various degrees of lol suckyness in our overall strategy, but thankfully compared to the typical LLSNL pool we can still be a degree of profitable.

I'm fairly on board with his statement regarding how it would be pretty hard to imagine putting in a degree of effort and losing at the game, at least in it's current state.

GcluelessprofitablenoobG