Hey

I need input on this hand I played last night as I am doubt on what to do on the river ...

The came is played on the local casino, which is the only one around within a 2 hours drive radius.
Villain (BB) is unknown to me and being a reg at the casino and this limit (The casino only have 3-4 tables running so I pretty much know all players) I per default assume he is a tourist passing by.
Villain is a mid-aged man, and after laying with him for a couple of hours I can see he is on the ABC side of playing poker, but he known how to handle chips and cards and have not been seen getting out of line.

The game is $3/$3 and are generally passive with few 3 bets and few 3barrels with air.
Standard buyin varies from $150 to the max of $750

In this hand Villain is BB and I have middle position in a full ring game.
My table image for the evening is on the tighter side as I have been card-dead all evening.

Villain starts the hand with around $250 and I cover him.

There is a couple of limps and I raise it to $25 with KQo - a fairly standard raise for the game played.

BB and UTG calls.
4 ways to a flop the is AAJ rainbow
Pot : $78

Check to me, and I continue to rep a premium hand. Given the board I decide to tone it done and bet $30 (and I don't believe if make a difference to bet like $40, and I like to keep my options open).
BB calls after a little time and UTG folds.

I now put BB on a range like : Ax (AK - A2 is possible), KJ, QJ, JJ and some smaller pairs that are not believing my story yet.

Pot : $128 - and we now play effectively ~$200 deep
Turn is a 3
and now there is a back-door flush, but I disregard as important as it is very unlikely that my opponent have like KQs, QTs, KTs that match that suit.

Check to me, and given my table image I fire a new bullet - this time sizing it a bit up so I can shown river - the bet is $80

BB calls

Pot : $288 - leaving us with effective ~$125 left
River is an A not completing the flush

BB check to me ......

I am seriously in doubt now as I can see villain being stubborn most pairs and slow-plying JJ and for sure any Ax hands.
On the other hand there are now three A's out there which make it less likely that BB (or my for that matter) have the last A.
Also the third A would counter his potential slow-played JJ.
For sure any bet from hero would be a very polarised one given the board run-out.

Do we give up or fire the last bullet ?

Given your read on V, I think you need to give up. An ABC, straightforward player isn't going to get to the river here without at least a J and he's never going to fold a J for less than a 1/2 pot bet OTR.

This is a situation where it's so tempting to bluff because villain rarely has the last ace. But he will have the last ace more then you expect, checking river because he fears you fold everything if he bets. Combined with pairs that he doesn't fold very often and bluffing here is usually -EV.

Yeah with the 3 aces on the board, I see him calling with most pairs too often to make a bluff worthwhile. Would make more sense if that last A hadn't hit.

Way too pokerish. None of my pennies going in post on this board 4 handed.

you put him on such a strong range on the turn and then fired into him; if he has a bunch of AX and some JX maybe its time to slow down

AP I prob give up on the river bc he has at least a boat and I don't think he will fold

I'm not sure betting this postflop at any point is a good idea. We have showdown values vs all the other non-pair hands, and are just praying no one else has the A or a stubborn J.
We also risk getting x/raised off of our gutterball equity.

If I did decide to barrel flop & turn, this might be a river I give up on. The range of hands we are repping just shrank considerably. Even from a balance standpoint, we'd be way overbluffing this river if we barreled off with all KQ combos.

It seems there is consensus about not betting river .... but does that mean we can never have a bluff in our range when we reach river in this spot ?

This would also mean that you all would call a river bet with any pair as Villain - which I do believe must be a mistake.

Not to defend my flop and turn play - but should Hero really have a range on river bets that never include a single bluff would seem a little off GTO ...

I do agree with you that from a perception view of the Villain tendencies it would mostly be a call due to pot odds and that the board missed any draws / over cards - but from that and to call with any pair is, for me, a long way to go ..... (perhaps the reason I am "stuck" at this level)

But I do thank you all for the input.

Grunch: Give up. Zeebo Theorem spot. No one folds a FH, even a crappy one on a scary board.