1/3 NLHE 8 handed.

Table is loose passive at this point.

V1 - Whale that everyone is targeting, drives the action. Buys in for the max VPIPing 98% (leaves for a smoke here and there) and just calls off with any draw any pair anything. Can show up at the river with all the 2-pair, any random straight that makes no sense, any BDFD etc etc. He will also bluff sometimes. CO. ~1k.

HH - Folds to H in SB who opens K2ss, V calls BB, HU to 8-4-2 one , H cbet V raises, H calls. Turn Tos, H x, V pots it, H folds, V shows 62os.

V2 - Loose passive MAWG I've never seen before. Went on a heater and went deep. 3-betting range is AK/KK/AA pure and opening range is almost as nutted. VPIP about 50%. UTG+1. Covers.

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V2 limps, folds to H in HJ with A J who opens 15 off 385$ eff, V1 calls CO, V2 calls. 3-ways 2nd to act.

Flop 45 - J 9 9

V2 checks, H bets 15, V1 raises to 50 (when I say he CAN bluff this is usually less so MW), V2 calls 50, Hero?

Gross. I might just fold. The only turn you want to see is a J.

I don't know which player I'm more concerned with, but it's probably V2.

Ugh. As Java pointed out there's only 2 cards we really want to see.

I think it might be a hecka tight fold, but not sure I ever find it, given price.

I probably fold and never tell anyone what I folded. To be good here you have to have the best hand and also fade 2 people’s outs. Plus even if you are ahead now you have RIO problems. This just isn’t a good spot.

I think I fold here. Could V1 have something like KTcc and V2 is just a mouth breather with something like J5o. Sure. Even in that scenario we have to fade a ton. More likely, somebody has a 9, the other has a giant combo draw.

Doing anything but calling here is pretty bad.

I get the price is good (and as I said I'm not sure in the heat of battle I find a fold), but what's our plan of action on anything other than a J on turn and river?

And BTW if we hit our J, I'm not sure either villain is going to throw a ton of money more in without the case jack (which we're only splitting against), so I don't think we have a ton of IO.

“The price is good” is not a good argument because of RIO. The price looks good now until you factor in how much more it will cost to reach showdown.

oh agreed for sure. We're likely facing a big turn bet and a big river bet from either villain.

I don't understand what people mean by RIO here... we have AJ not KJ

What!? What do you think RIO means that our kicker is the issue?

RIO means that as the hand progresses we are going to have to pay more and more to get to showdown, meaning the price we are being given on the flop is not the true price we are getting on whether our hand is good.

Doing anything but folding here is pretty bad.


V1 description is literally "V1 - Whale that everyone is targeting, max VPIPing 98% and just calls off with any draw any pair anything"

Then V2 cold called the raise.

We taking a massive dose of hopium that V1 has QcTc and V2 has KJ often enough?
Maybe we are half right and V1 does have a good draw he's raising for once ... but then V2 has a random 97 or whatever. Guess what being half right gets us ... about -$300 if we are lucky. On the upside we can't ever bet/raise unless a J hits or running As so maybe we can lose less.


Honestly you aren't doing that great vs. non stations, and these guys have at least 4x as many 9x combos.

We also have a bunch of better calls ... all three overpairs (same outs but way more likely to be paid off and not blocking Jx hands); and NFD; even QTs.

Also H should probably never 3bet flop here, would also say 3bet A9 is dangerous.


"Normal" ranges:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jc9c9d
PLAYER_1 AhJh
PLAYER_2 (QT,T8,J,9,cc):20%
PLAYER_3 (QT,T8,J,9,cc):10%
650160 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AhJh	24.3607%	14.3477%	20.9185%	93283	136004
(QT,T8,J,9,cc):20%	39.6573%	36.3055%	7.5961%	236044	49387
(QT,T8,J,9,cc):10%	35.9819%	27.8033%	17.2498%	180766	112151

"Yeez guyz" optimistic version:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jc9c9d
PLAYER_1 AhJh
PLAYER_2 (QT,T8,9,cc):80%
PLAYER_3 (QT,T8,J,9,cc):50%
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AhJh	22.7184%	20.7827%	3.8718%	124696	23231
(QT,T8,9,cc):80%	46.0029%	44.7623%	2.4813%	268574	14888
(QT,T8,J,9,cc):50%	31.2787%	28.1953%	6.1670%	169172	37002

...closer to reality:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jc9c9d
PLAYER_1 AhJh
PLAYER_2 (QcTc,Tc8c,9,Ac*c):80%
PLAYER_3 (QT,T8,J,9,cc):50%
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AhJh	10.7379%	9.6743%	2.1277%	58046	12766
(QcTc,Tc8c,9,Ac*c):80%	63.6703%	61.9153%	3.5103%	371492	21062
(QT,T8,J,9,cc):50%	25.5918%	22.9523%	5.2793%	137714	31676

Am I missing something here? It's the whale raising here, not the loose passive. How many 9x are in V1's range? He is forking his range and telling us not to get MUBSY about JJ (if he has 99 then God bless him).

The whale's raising range is Wide.

I'm shoving and thinking the whale comes along.

Whichever guy told LLSNL players “if you call one street with a made hand and the board doesn’t change, you have to call the next street too” (or more commonly phrased as “if you call the Turn, you need to call the River too {so therefore you shouldn’t call the Turn}”) deserves to burn in hell for his sins.

It’s $35 more into $160 closing action with a hand that could be best now and has two outs for the nuts. Doing anything but calling is insane.

If we call, turn is a brick, V2 checks we check V1 bets pot and V2 calls again, well then yeah OF COURSE we fold, we’ve now received a ton more evidence that we’re beat!

But now? To a tiny flop raise and a cold-call? Nowhere close to enough reason to fold.

If you fold AJ to this raise, what made hands are you calling with? Just the two A9 suiteds? You don’t think you may be folding a biiiiiiiiit too much if you’re only calling with trips+???

Oh that's not my conception of RIO. I think of it as "When we hit our hand we're chasing for, we can still be behind and lose more". As in 45s has severe RIO to T9s. Here we've hit and our hand is **usually** (although maybe not given the action here) the best hand. Unlike QJ or KJ.

@Illiterat. Thanks for the work you put into that I think you're probably correct in saying this is a nit fold.

@dav. I think the point is that we'd rather have QT or clubs here or at least an overpair rather than AJ. Heck even JTdd maybe, just because we can catch up to a 9 more easily. Obv calling or raising most 9X that I have. It's a single raised pot over one limp so I have JJ, 99, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s in my range here for value/premiums.

Result:

It doesn't matter if we are good now, if we are folding almost all turns to a bet.

Calling with the intention of praying for the turn to check through is just bad, even if V1 slows down on the turn because V2 cold called we still need everyone to miss and V2 to not lead river and then we have to bluff catch V1 correctly on the river if he bets.

Calling because we might hit 2 outs is -$35 x ~19 vs. $y ... solve for why anything but calling is insane.


Calling here "for pot odds" is the same kind of reasoning randoms use to limp/call super wide in the SB.


If we have good enough live reads I'm not sure if calling or raising small (both with plans to shove blank turns) or shoving flop is best.

I would definitely fold, if neither of them has it then good for them. But given we are in a SRP and both villains could conceivably have all sorts of nines, and one player called a bet and raise on the flop it seems prudent to fold.

call. you downbet this flop because you dont fear a raise, at least not yet.

Maybe check the flop. Jam seems bad, unless effective stacks are really small. Did you give stacks? If you thiink you are good, then call and probably call down more bluffs.

I think the worst play here is jamming or calling a turn bet. Anything else is reasonable.

Against morons it's okay to just peel once and see.

Even if V1 tried to steal the pot, after 2 calls he's likely done bluffing into 2 people.

Ballsy. I like it. To me it was a fold or jam spot based on your description. Nice.

I can't see how shoving is better than calling down.