Here's a very odd hand with pocket tens from a deep $1/3 game.

V is a young white TAG. Generally tight preflop, but capable of bluffing and playing aggressively postflop. He is effective stack with ~$900.

V opens to $25 (standard open in this game) from MP and H flats with TdTh (considered 3-bet, but his range is generally quite strong), loose passive calls from BB.

Flop ($76): 9dQdKd

V bets $50, hero?

Seems like I could raise here and probably should have (considering my strong blockers). Instead I simply flat called.

Turn ($175): Th

V checks, hero?

I turn a set but a 4-liner is on the board. Ultimately I decided a bet was in order and I could easily rep a J here + get value from hands like AdKh. Is this a bad spot?

I bet $200 and he calls.

River ($575): 9h

V shoves for ~$600. Hero?

As much as it sucks, this feels like a fold. This doesn't feel like it's ever a bluff, and what value hands am I beating? Maybe a slow-played AdJd/Ad5d type hand?

I think I shrug call for $600 getting 2:1. You don’t block anything and V should know the board is disgusting and smashes his range. Call, V shows JJdx and H scoops. Seriously, I think any boat has to call. If he has Q’a or K’s oh well.

Pre is fine and definitely don't think you should raise flop. Feels closer to a fold 3 ways, but with the 3rd highest diamond, and a gutshot, call feels right. Turn, perhaps a tad smaller turn, but I don't think the overbet is bad here. As for river, I sigh call, perhaps a leak, but I just don't see how I get away from it.

BTW - I'm assuming from action BB check folded flop.

Pre and flop are fine. I might 3bet pre, but whatever.

Turn: why are we overbetting? To rep a J you say, but why can't we just bet 40% pot and rep the hand we have? He really shouldn't be calling with 1 pair hands here and even with the A it would be a bad call from villain's POV, given pot odds.

River: This is why the turn overbet is so problematic. Villain gets to this river with such a strong range, even when we have essentially the best hand in our range, we still hate to call it off.

Does he play straights and flushes this randomly sometimes? Does he bluff here with A or KQ sometimes? And does he do that >35% of the time? Seems unlikely.
On the other hand we have the top of our range and you gotta factor in ~10% LLSNL random button clicking, so uhm, call???

Check turn. If you’re going to bet, it should be smaller because you want value.

As played, you’re weirdly underrepped here. Call and see the bad news


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Turn bet is just button clicking. You are not likely to get much value.

Call flop, check turn, call river.

As played, I don't think a call is justified unless you know V is going to bluff AdXd nearly always. "Sometimes" is not enough. Puke fold.

I am not folding. Although he has almost no bluffs. Just to high in our range.

Yeah, in retrospect I wish I'd simply checked back turn to realize my equity and underrep my hand. At the time, I was honestly just thinking about the different ways my hand could improve and the potential to get him off a higher set but really shouldn't have bothered.

For those saying we should call river, what bluffs do you give him? He has 99/QQ/KK for value (7 combos). We need ~33% to call him, so can anyone find 4-5 bluff combos? AdJd is the only hand I can find that I'm beating.

If we're not folding, what are we hoping to see when we call?

How about the three AdAx combos? V could believe he's blocking most reasonable flush combos, and he's aggressive/capable of bluffing. He has the nut straight which could convince him he's pretty strong (given he blocks a lot of flushes) . . .

How does AA have the nut straight? There's no J on the board.

Yes, you're right - I had drafted response initially saying he has the best two pair when board paired and then stupidly edited my post to say he has nut straight. Weakens my point but still think those three AAs are possible.

Also, JdJx could be semi bluff candidates.

It’s reaching I admit, but V could be bluffing w/ AAdx or merging with JJdx and could have the AdJd you mentioned. Could be spewing with AdKx trying to push you off a chop. I can easily see 4-5 combos. I’m stupid sticky but I’d have to see it.

I like pre. I probably fold flop. It sucks folding having such a preflop premium but if V is a tight raiser and you think about his range he really shouldn't miss this flop often.

AP sigh call getting 2:1, you lose to 7 combos, he can jam with AJ or even jx one in three times.

e: I missed that we have the gssfd on the flop. That does change things. I guess I'd do the same.

I'm fine with preflop but I'm passive like that.

I just fold the flop. Dude's betting into 2 opponents, is tight, our IO vs RIO suck on 4-to-a-straight/4-to-a-flush, etc.

On the turn we have a hand that has too much value to turn into a bluff plus a bet is targetting far too few hands (basically Adx of which there are just a few combos), imo. So I'm pretty cool with just checking back and then seeing what happens.

I'm folding the river. Just too good a chance this is exactly what we think it is (i.e. KK/QQ). ETA: Overall, I think most are way overthinking the river; Villain has almost no hands that he needs to turn into bluffs since we can have busted draws, so he can just check/evaluate (admittedly mostly praying for a check back) with a bunch of hands (including all one pairs). Unless your game routinely sees people pile in 200bbs on the river with somewhat showdownable hands turned into bluffs. IMO.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yes, but I think JJ almost always bets the turn

Yes, but I think JJ almost always bets the turn