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This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011)

03-02-2011 , 11:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by papagavin
we're turning our hand face up if we donk out and likely just being called by better, we're already repping squarely Qx and fd's from the flop, and fd's are just giving up here three way or trying for a free showdown, certainly not leading out. if v2 raises we're chopping and if v1 does we're chopping or beat usually, I don't see anyone running a bluff here.

if we check v2 might decide to continue his bluff in the face of weakness or check through. then OTR v1 may take a stab if he missed his flush, or if he checks and we bet its a lot easier to entice a call from pairs <Q or a made flush / ace high since theres no threat of future bets and they will see a showdown. its also a lot more believable we checked with air ott then perked up when noone showed interest.

we're just not winning a big pot here imo ever.
very nice...Thank you!!
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-03-2011 , 04:32 AM
Damn got in discussion late today.

Anyway for what its worth, I advocated a raise on the flop.
Now after v 2 s shaddiness is brought to light (and he was where we thought he was) and utg folded out, that only leaves v1.

He just calls $40, to me this feels like JJ. Maybe QQ for the flopped fullhouse, but far less likely.
He has probably put us on the flush draw.

I think I still like a raise here.
Its going to look so weak as compared to super strong like it would have the first time.

We know v 2 is done w/ the hand. Its unlikely after his actions hes gonna find a bluff in him the rest of the way. I'd rather get rid of him now and play heads up.

I think v1 calls our raise w/ any pair. Based on our read we should be well ahead and getting called here.

Ok now that we just called again:

After the check I probably check behind at this point. I'd be shocked if v2 bluffs like I said, even more so now that any pair turned into a full house but give him the chance anyway.

I'm checking, more so, to hopefully give the appearence of being done w/ the hand and squeezing some value out of v 1 on the river.

It also acts twofold, if v1 did flop the goods or has AA or KK and is somehow still slowplaying we exercise some pot control.

A bet screams we have a Queen now, if v 1 check raises us were in a spot where we'd be calling to split at best which would be bad. Although at this point I'm feeling comfortable w/ 3's full of Q's, lets try to salvage what we can.

I think we missed the opportunity to take control of this hand already, lets check and hope to pick up a bet on the river from v 1 w/ a worse fullhouse.

I just went back and reread your flop action, I think AsKs makes some sense for v 1 based on your op.
All the more reason to raise flop/check turn.
V 1 likely has 1-6 outs.

Last edited by patchohare; 03-03-2011 at 04:52 AM.
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-03-2011 , 09:06 AM
I suppose we're trying to get value from the underpairs in V1's range or maybe V2 might even stab with a small PP or a flush if the 3rd one comes on the river so maybe a check is okay.
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-03-2011 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
I decided to call. fold was, obviously out of the question, and I still didn't feel quite right about a raise, as villain#2 could just spaz and make decisions more difficult. I'm getting 7:1 on my call, I would end the action and can see how turn action develops:

hero calls $40 more

Turn ($310) Q333

Villain #1 checks

Hero(QJ)
At this point, it looked to me like Villain #1 was either: 1) done with the hand, or 2) pot controlling with a 1010 JJ, OR 3) he may still be sticking around with AK. I don't think villain#1 is sitting on a monster. I put villain #2 on a high FD. I was unsure whether call or bet is most optimal here. If I check, would either villain call a reasonable river bet? or would either villain bet river? It made sense to me at the time that the turn is where I can likely extract value. Therefore, I wanted to bet something ridiculously small, in order to get value from all underpairs sticking around. I had realized that betting would likely fold out villain #2 if he was on a FD, and villain #1 if he held AK. Villain#2 would really be a donk, if he thought his flush outs were good. And I would have done a good job making it look like a steal attempt, if villain #1 called my bet with AK. So I pushed in a stack of $100.

The minute I put the chips in the middle, I could see from the corner of my eye that villain #1 started to stare me down pretty hard and intimidating, ala Hoyt Corkins. I never looked back up or acknowledge the stare down. I simply looked down at the chips I've put in. I could hear villain #2 hem and haw "Why don't I believe you. I really think you're trying to steal the pot. Ahh, I want to see another card so bad" He covers his face and folds.
During this entire 1 minute act from villain #2, villain #1 did not take his eyes off of me. It was obvious that he did not like my bet. He continued to stare for another 30 seconds and finally makes the call

So, it's HU to the river

River ($510) Q333K

Villlain #1 is looking at me while the dealer deals river card. He then looks down and puts out $200. Hero has ~$630 remaining.
Fold, or make a crying call??
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-03-2011 , 10:47 PM
It sucks. You're calling 200 to win 255 because he's never making this bet with a bluff. You've got to call, but I expect to see KQ or 3x over half the time.

My revenge would be to say, "thanks for letting me off so cheap, I would have called more."
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:40 AM
Really? I expect the staredown and call to be AK here. Although it could be him trying to figure out if we've got the case 3. I totally expect some bad player to continue with AK on this flop and turn. Also it's one of the few hands they raise preflop with. I really want to think I have the discipline to fold here. It sucks to get bluffed out of a big pot, but I think this is a total yuck spot and just let it go.
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-04-2011 , 06:05 AM
Man one of the 6 outs villian potentially has and it hits. This hand has been so bruttle all the way through.

Fwiw I think if your going to lead the turn you need to bet a good amount more.

Anyway, he bets $200 into $510 so pots $710. Your getting ~3.5-1, I think you have to call here w/ the second full house.
Unfortunately 10 10 and JJ would almost always be check/calling or check/folding the river.
Unless he read you as weak while doing the stare down and is making a super thin value bet.
IDK is he turning his hand into a bluff? Is this a blocking bet?

Gross spot, I think the crying call is in order. V1 took such an odd line the whole way he could show up w/pretty much anything here at this point.
Its just one we gotta pay off if he got there.

On the lighter side of things, this has been a really good thread.
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-04-2011 , 06:15 AM
I was just thinking a bit more, I feel like after the turn bet and action you kinda have to call.

What I mean is you said that you were trying to look weak and make it look like a total steal attempt. If you did a good job of this its more likely that v 1 is making a play at the pot.

To me this is even more of a reason to make the painfull call.
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-04-2011 , 06:49 AM
fold
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-05-2011 , 10:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by papagavin
fold
I was so conflicted with this hand at this point. One thing is for sure, if this was someone else's post, I would vote fold for sure. Villain led into me on river. In my experience, that has mostly been a sign of strength.
But I had a hard time at that time to put him on AK. He had to be really bad to continue in the turn with ace high.

Masaraksh mentioned villain would play AA, KK this way on flop. This is interesting and very true now that I think about it. I

But at the time of the hand, the way I saw it, the flop went bet (villain 1), call (hero), forced minraise (villain 2). Here is where villain #1 should have put a raise with KK+, to price out the FD. But then again, maybe he wants to build a pot. Maybe villain is afraid of QQ. It was obvious that either hero or villain #2 was on a FD at this point as neither has shown any real strength. so that was my thought process to rule out KK+ .

If you disagree, please elaborate...I would like to hear alternate analyses.

Which brings me to my last set of hands, I assigned villain #1: 1010 or JJ
Again, this would, in essence, be a bluff bet by villain#1, and what better card to do it with than a K. My hand was pretty transparent at turn (unless of course I had KQ). Would he risk bluffing in that spot, knowing I may hold KQ?? In hindsight, no.

So his bet on river had to be a v-bet only

So, in writing this PAHWM, it really helped me sort together some of these thinkings, and thanks to all of you for your contributions

Back to the hand: I paid him off like a donk and he tabled AK
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote
03-05-2011 , 11:07 AM
I'm expecting him to never bluff with a pair because noone turns a full house into a bluff, nothing better is folding that, nothing worse calling, etc etc.

All spade draws fold turn.

Qx wouldn't bet the river, would rather try let you take advantage of a scare card if you were on some manic bluff.

His range going to the river contains very few Kx's IMO but once he leads the river, since we've established he can rarely if ever have a pure bluff, and would c/c with his medium strength hands, he must be leading with a K. I'd be expecting KQ more than AK, but that doesn't really matter I suppose.
This week's PAHWM (Feb 27, 2011) Quote

      
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