So I feel like lately I've really had an issue with trying to pot control too much with big PPs on low boards in games where Vs are playing a very wide range. Part of it just has to do with randomness, as a large percentage of my big pairs have been coming OOP lately. In this case though, I'm OTB.

1/2. Early SAT morning game. 6 handed. Game is pretty passive PF, but Vs are calling and defending very wide. Hero has shown down 3 hands in the past 45min and has had it every time. Playing pretty ABC at the moment with a clean image. A few of the players at the table are regs and know I don't get too far out of line very often, but that I also widen my range quite a bit IP and specifically OTB.

V. Late 40s white male. 200ish stack. Pretty tight open range, 3!s are almost always AK+, JJ+. Calls and defends pretty wide though, and has been calling raises from the blinds with a lot of small connectors/gappers which I've sen him showdown at least 4-5 times over the past 2hrs.. Hero covers with roughly 500.

OTTH. Hero is dealt black Aces OTB. Two limps and hero makes it $12 (not a whole lot of PF raising at this table, so I sized a bit smaller than I normally would). V in question calls from the SB, BB and and one limper calls.

Flop 4 ways, Pot $50 842
Checks to Hero and I bet $30. V in SB calls, other two fold.

Turn Head's Up: Pot $110 6
V checks, and now I decide to check back and pot control. My thought was two-fold. The 6 hit Vs flop continuing range much harder than it should hit mine. A couple straight draws come in, and I felt there are a lot of 2P combos on board for the range that I expected him to defend with (more combos than we'd expect a lot of Vs to be able to have here). For some reason I really thought he wasn't weighted too much towards flush draws. My other reason was that a check looks like I c-bet flop with overs and then gave up OTT. I've seen V call flop bets with middle/bottom pair several times already, and these hands would almost certainly fold to a second bet. I'm now planning on calling pretty much all rivers, or betting if checked to.

River: $110 Q
V bets $45, hero calls. V says "you're good" and rolls over KJ.
So my turn X allowed V to draw for free, but it also induced a river bluff from him. I still probably lost some value here as I believe V would have likely would have called a $60-$70 bet OTT. I think he most likely gives up and doesn't bluff river if I had bet turn though, as he's at least thinking enough to know that stack sizes would dictate that he'd have no FE OTR.

So is this just terribly MUBSY of me to pot control with AA on a low board like this when I've seen V defend with hands several times that crush this board?

Ya you need to bet it. Villain should rarely/never have 2pair on this 6. Only 53 makes a straight and even that is questionable cause of preflop. And flush draws are clearly in his range. Here, villain sort of bailed you out on the river but if he checks, he kinda owns you

Either way you were only getting two streets on that board. He definitely would've called a turn bet, but would've c/f the river. $70 on the turn and check back the river if you're worried about his possible straights

Ya I think you just need to work on your range logic in the moment. It's ok mine is pretty terrible a lot of the time too. Then the hand ends and I think back and wonder why I would think the way I did.

For him to have straights that got there with the six, he'd have to have called pre with either 35, or 57. 57 would have been a hit **** in the flop and 35 seems like it would have been pretty marginal even for this guy. For 2p he would have had to call 24, 86 or something even worse and only 24 made it on the flop. Sets are actually a lot. It's likely and he's going to let you know pretty quickly if he has one of those. It's just waaay waaay more likely that he's drawing to a flush or has a mid pocket pair that looks. I've to him on the low board which means the turn is an lol obvious bet.

My process these days is to identify the hands that beat me on the flop and decide how likely it is that they have them. Then proceed to hands I beat etc. helps me not miss anything. Also keeps me from being unrealistic on my range.

These 2 statements seem a bit contradictory. I would suggest we are probably losing most of our value preflop. If Vs are calling and defending too wide, we need to size our preflop raises to take advantage of this.

The table in general isn't defending and calling too wide, more so just this particular V that was in the SB. Also when he was making these calls, they were mostly of $8-$10 PF raises. So $12 was a bit small compared to what I'd normally open with in this situation, but it was still a bit larger than most of the opens were at this table at the time. This specific V probably calls a larger PFR with the exact holdings that he ended up having, but in general I felt like a $15-$17 open stood a good chance of folding everyone out based on what the standard PF action was at the time.

This flop and turn are dry
Bet bet bet.