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Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Value Shove on River with Aces Up?

08-19-2019 , 06:09 AM
1/2 NLHE (50 bb Max)

Effective Stack Sizes = $104

Villain 1 = YAG, loose passive cs.
Villain 2 = YWG, looks like he hasn't slept for a while, drinking beer. Has only started playing in the last hour, and has had a few hands. Raises 7x PF with them.

Folded to V1 on the Button, he limps. V2 completes. Hero has A2 and checks.

$6
Flop is A72
V2 bets $6. Hero calls. V1 folds

$18
Turn is 5
V2 bets $15, Hero raises to $50. V2 calls and says "I check in the dark".

$118
River is 6

Hero?
So its either a shove or check scenario, given there is only $45 behind.
Go for value, or do we only get called by a range that has us beat? What are we putting Villain on? Play the hand any different?
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-19-2019 , 08:39 AM
Usually the check in the dark move is an attempt to get you not to bet OTR, so I'd go ahead and shove. He shouldn't have much Ax that isn't a better 2p, but it calls a shove of less than half pot. So do all of his 2p combos, many of which you're ahead of. Sets almost never take that turn action, and SDs wouldn't have donked in the first place.
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-19-2019 , 09:50 AM
Obvious shove is obvious. He has only 45 behind. Of course there are worse hands that will call and he should ~never have you beat. Don't decide for someone else that they won't call you with an ace here, let them decide for themselves. Not shoving here for this amount is criminal.
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-19-2019 , 12:47 PM
This is an auto-shove. He can easily call with worse. If he has better, so be it.
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-19-2019 , 04:16 PM
SHOVE !
Probably has a big ace and doesn’t want you to bet.
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-19-2019 , 08:40 PM
If he has a big ace and just completed the SB PF after a BTN limp, he is far worse than the read we've been given.
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-20-2019 , 04:56 AM
AP Hero checked, and Villain had 65o

I put him on an ace when he lead out on the flop, or 7x, and did want to scare him (or V1) off by raising flop. When he lead the turn for 15, I was super sure that he had an Ace then, that's why the re-raise. So I was expecting to GII there, especially given his stack size. So I was confused by his comment, the smooth call, and his check blind, and mis-read that behaviour, as strength, or a draw. The 6 made the draws get there, so I elected to check behind

When writing this post, I thought that I had made a mistake by not shoving, but only a small one. Turns out that I was wrong.

Assuming that Villain goes AI on the turn with hands that crush me, or that are strong (72, 75 etc), I've used the following range for his holding on the river, that makes sense given his actual holding, and how he played it....
A9s-A8s, A6s, A4s-A3s, 84s, 76s, 65s, A9o-A8o, A6o, A4o-A3o, 76o, 65o
Taken out the big aces, because he was raising those PF to 6-8x
Against this range we are a whopping 83%!
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-20-2019 , 05:23 AM
The 6 made the draws get there?
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-21-2019 , 02:15 AM
ez value shove of my life only 50bb effective too
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote
08-21-2019 , 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown
The 6 made the draws get there?
Lol. Hell yeah. 48 was a slam-dunk. 89/34 also...

Most importantly, 66 definitely got there.
Value Shove on River with Aces Up? Quote

      
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