People generally don't show me their hands when we play . Also, nice creativity in your insults, throw in the old boring cliched AK-vs-22 example. Not intelligent enough to come up with something better?

I'm aware it's a "clear" favorite, which ends up meaning it has like 53% equity when you take the rake and tips out of the heads up pot you'd conceivably be playing. We both know you're not playing for stacks with this hand if someone sticks in a full buy in blind. This is simply something you'll spout online because it's easy to do so, but never actually do at the table. 100+ responses, not one person has yet provided a recap of a hand where they did it.

So your passing up 53% equity... why on earth would you fold a hand when ur a 3 percent favorite...

Was playing 2/5 about a week ago. UTG just lost a big pot and rather than rebuy he stuck his last $45 in blind. I was in the BB and said "if it folds to me I will give you action blind." It did. I did.

I turned over K3o which won with a rivered K.

Now would I have done that if he was crazy enough to put in $300? If I felt lucky.

Playing cards is gambling. Don't be a pussy.

4 handed home game. 10c/20c (euros though so big stakes.!) Last hand of the night monkey shoves ~700bb blind from UTG or button. Folds to me. I look at a king and snap. And lose.

Happy Now 2ONP? As I said in an earlier post, it is a pretty ******ed thought process which allows you to disbelieve what people are saying on an internet forum and at the same time ask for hand histories as "proof". Do you believe what people write or not? Pick one and at least be consistent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

For those of you unfamiliar with the Kelly criterion, it basically is a metric for how much money you should be willing to wager on a favorable proposition. In simple terms, it states "the amount of edge you have is the % of your bankroll you should be willing to commit."

It provides a baseline for evaluating what amount of edge and variance you are comfortable with relative to your bankroll.

/edit Factor in rake and tip, it just changes your edge slightly. The concept is the same.

Would you flip $20 for $2 edge?
Would you flip $100 for $10 edge?
Would you flip $500 for $50 edge?

In our situation where we have ~4% edge, full-kelly states that if you have a $5000 bankroll, we would flip for up to $200. If however I only had a bankroll of $1500, I would only be willing to flip for up to $60.

It is up to you to determine what is the probability that this "blind" all-in is truly blind. But if I were 95% confident that he was in fact "blind," and I had a bankroll of $5000, I would be very happy getting it in with 4% edge for only $86. If I only had a bankroll of $1500, I would "pass and wait for a better spot." As an aside I think playing this game under-rolled will lead to you passing +EV spots like this, which is in general a bad thing.

You can factor in rake and tip, this will just effect your edge % number. The concept remains the same.

FWIW, if someone paid me $50 to flip for $500 (10% edge!! this opportunity does not come that often), I would do it pretty happily.

You're making my point for me. You called because it was 9xBB. You wouldn't have if it were 60 or 100xBB.

This thread has 100+ responses and spans several days, this is the first example of something that people argue "occurs all the time" we've gotten.

The reason I disbelieve is pretty simple - what I've seen with my own eyes. People simply do not make these calls anywhere near as easily as they say here. Period. You know it, I know it. I'm able to disbelieve it because I can count on one hand the number of times in my life I've seen someone call a big-amount-blind-shove with a slightly-ahead-in-equity hand

I've explained this in previous posts. What % of players you have played with in LLSNL over the last 10 years do you think use poker stove? Then how many use it well? There you have your answer. It is really pretty simple and I don't understand how you can fail to see the difference between what 10 posters here say and what you have witnesseed happening. Start a thread about ATo UTG 9 handed and see what most people here say and compare that to what you have seen in 10 years play. Do you believe we are all lying when we say we fold ATo UTG?

Stop trying to compare 10 posters here with the playing population.

I actually didn't say I'd autofold. I posted some hands where I did in fact call in these spots with non-premium hands. What I said was that people in this thread are flat out full of **** when they state that they would always do this at the table without thought simply because of the slight equity edge being impossible to pass up. I also have argued that people aren't doing this as routinely as they say, and that the equity edge is almost always either razor thin, or nonexistent because of the chances that the shove wasn't truly blind. Pretty simple.

What percentage of players use Pokerstove at the table as they have to make the decision to call the blind shove?

I like the table image caused by calling 43BBs with a J high.

Do you know how much money casino's make at roulette? On red / black bets, the player is 47.4% to win, making the house 52.6% to win. That "small edge" built Vegas.

In a cash game, passing up a spot where you're 54-46 means only one thing: you're playing scared.

How often do we have to do this?

The answer to your question is zero.

Lots of people have used stove soooo much away from the table they understand equities well enough to not need it.
Don't assume nobody has abilities just because you lack them.

Secondly, some people specified they would have folded at the table. I have admitted I would have wrongly folded at the table but think it is a clear call after seeing the maths.

Thirdly, there are a group of people who didn't specify whether their response was before or after seeing the maths, so one could quite easily assume they read the thread, realized after the maths analysis that calling makes you more money than folding and sensibly decided this made the call easy.

How does any of that relate to your experiences with the player base as a whole over ten years? Poker stove didn't even exist ten years ago!

As I keep repeating, what you have seen and what 10 people would do after seeing the stove calculations are obviously different. For you to link one to the other shows a lack of reasoning skills.

There's some merit to this, although at a casino who knows how long OP will be playing with these players or if he'll ever see them again. However, yes, it'd help show people that you're "gambling it up" and might allow for them to pay you off light in the future.

Lovely. You wouldn't know at the table that J8s was 54% against a random hand. People here only know it now because of this thread. Perhaps the one or two times in the next ten years that this exact scenario occurs and they happen to have exactly J8s, they can use the information to call.

ITT this thread we learn J7 suited is a favorite over a randomm hand and little else.

I know this was covered but at my casino this hand would have encountered a $5 rake and a $1 BBJ drop. Assuming we are tippers we would have tipped a buc. So we have less than $5 equity of which we are giving $1 to the dealer.

As has been shown by facts and figures, to take these kinds of flips on a regular basis one would have to be properly rolled for 1/2.... some where in the neighborhood of 20 buy ins.

So if we are properly rolled and if we are going to top off instantly upon losing this flip (if we don't we may be giving up future, better EV spots)... then this is a marginally profitable play.

Passing on this play is not in anyway an unforgivable poker sin nor is calling. That's why the thread is 8 pages long... either is OK and a lot depends on your bank roll and disposition.

You can insult me all you wish. Doesn't bother me in the least. I'm pretty sure I know as much about poker as you do, and I play just fine. No problem here whatsoever with my abilities. I'm also well aware of Pokerstove and how it works. As far as my lack of reasoning skills, I think I do pretty well in life in addition to being pretty well educated, so they're alright. It doesn't hurt my feelings for some Internet random such as yourself to come down on me because they don't like being called out for being full of it.

You can argue all you want. My position is correct and it isn't changing. For full stacks, we know that you people aren't calling with hands that are just above the 50% barrier in a shove-blind scenario. If you're a 1/2 player for example, and you've got some such amount like $236, and someone shoves blind UTG and you're in the BB closing the action, we know you're not calling it off with J8s or Q9o or K3. You would if you had a premium hand, or maybe if the amount was smaller and less significant.

Again, why do I never see it happen if it's so obvious that with these hands there should be a fist-pump call? Why isn't anyone giving us HH's where they did this? You're all so tickled pink to get it in with the tiny edge, so, let's hear some success stories of you doing it?

Read you idiot.

And, interestingly enough, this continues to be flat out wrong:

Really? Is that right? I mentioned a couple of times, as did one other poster, that all it takes to make it -EV is to stick in a 10% chance that this is a pretend-blind-shove and assign that portion a "real" hand range. Everyone has conveniently ignored this.

Nice to know that I make you angry enough to resort to this. I've read all your responses. I still don't see a legitimate response to my question.

Because OP has stated he was 100% sure.

1) Now, obviously as you've stated, I'm an "idiot" who "lacks reasoning skills", so I'm sure I'm out in left field. But, I would think that the idea of pretend-shoving-blind would be to make others sure that you were in fact blind, by concealing that you had looked.

2) We're not just talking about this one hand, we're talking about the long term, in which there would always be some small but significant chance that the pretend-blind-shove had been executed.

I hear Venice coming with his rusty padlocks clangity clang clanging.

I just read this elsewhere...

Lets say he raises your entire life savings then it's even a bigger mistake!

plz

I might do it. Depends on the day.

The thread really has nowhere else to go. It didn't have all that much to teach to begin with since this situation is very close either way, and extremely rare to begin with, so it wouldn't be making a big deal over the course of your poker life. Locking it is fine. I just feel I'm being unfairly attacked when I don't think my point could possibly more correct. QueSuerte is way out of line slamming me simply because he feels insulted that I questioned people's sincerity when it's clear to begin with that the evidence backs me up. People keep saying how quickly they'd get the money in but can't provide any hands where they've ever actually done this. The vast majority of the time I've seen this actually occur at the table, people hem and haw and show their hand to their friend and claim "wow I'd love to call I love this hand" etc etc etc, and then eventually fold. The blind shover either wins the pot uncontested and stops, or continually does it until he eventually gets called by a solid-to-premium hand.

People in theory should be calling lighter than they end up doing in practice, and it's clear that people at the actual table aren't as quick to exploit the small edge as they are in the hypothetical, after-the-fact breakdown online. That's all I'm saying.

Ok 2ONP, you have proven that you won't take a flip with a 4% edge. Good for you. But then you keep saying that no one is providing HH of this actually happening - which is wrong. I think I've counted 3 HH provided, one of which was from myself. If you missed them, I suggest you go back and read thru the thread again.

This argument comes up fairly regularly in this forum it seems, and it always generates very passionate debate. Yet it never gets resolved. IMO it's never resolved because the variance haters don't comprehend the game. If you avoid variance you are making a direct mistake. A mistake which another player is profiting from. In this example, if hero folds he makes approx $6 mistake, meaning villains play has earnt him $6. Isnt the object of the game to make money?

Embrace the variance, make the correct play, deal with the outcome.