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Ugly river spot of my own making Ugly river spot of my own making

11-12-2022 , 11:44 PM
Think I botched this one. Feedback appreciated at all decision points.

$1/$2 at Mohegan Sun in CT. Early Saturday afternoon at a new table. There is at least one spot at this table: a burly dude in a lewd graphic tee chugging vodka mixed drinks at 1pm and VPIPing the majority of hands dealt while bragging about his sports betting exploits. Sadly he folded pre this hand.

Hero is a 31yo white guy playing solid poker on this day and up a bit.

Villain is an older (60+) white guy. He is a passive player but not a loose passive fish type or an OMC. We've played together before but I don't recall any significant hands. He is wearing a hat commemorating the 25 year anniversary of the casino and is wearing a t-shirt that says "Eat. Sleep. Poker" or something like that (maybe also Mohegan Sun garb). I imagine he plays here quite a bit more than I do (once a week for a few hours). We played one hand earlier this session where EP opened to $7, I 3bet AQ to $25, V cold called from the blinds and EP called. I cbet $40 on QQJccx. Villain tank folded and said "I don't want to see the run-out" and then EP folded.

Villain has a stack of ~$170 and hero covers.

The Hand:

I open QQ from EP for $10. MP Calls. Villain calls from button. BB Calls.

Flop: 667r ($38)

BB checks.

I cbet $20.

MP folds.

Villain raises to $52.

BB folds.

I call.

I am already uncomfortable here. I don't think I have to cbet QQ here four ways on a low paired board but I figured there is a lot I can get value from and I could use some protection from overcards. When Villain raises super small, I think he can definitely have some 6x, but he also certainly has overpairs. Not sure about bluffs, but maybe 89s or 54s sometimes. Not sure if folding makes sense given he can have worse overpairs. Do I jam here? Seems like this guy could easily fold a hand like TT to a 3bet and only continue with hands that beat me. So I settle on call.

Turn: 667 8 ($139)

I check.

He checks.

54s completes and 89s makes top pair. When he checks, I figure he either has a worse hand than QQ or a full house that is trapping.

River: 6678 4 ($139)

Now any 5 makes a straight, but I don't know how much 5x villain has when he takes this line. I think his range is 99-QQ or a full house. My options are: block bet to try and get called by his overpairs; check and hope he checks back; or jam for under pot for really thin value?

I bet $40.

Villain jams for ~$108 relatively quickly.

Puke. Hero?

My plan was to bet/fold but is the price too good? Are there any bluffs at all here? All of a sudden block-betting feels like a mistake.
Ugly river spot of my own making Quote
11-13-2022 , 01:19 AM
If I'm reading stacks and betting correctly you are getting better than 4:1 which is tough to say no to. If he has a 6 why doesn't he bet the turn? Might have 55 or 88. Any hands that you beat that he raises with make much more sense for him to just call - 89 99 TT JJ - unless he thinks you're the kind of player who might fold JJ QQ or KK to the raise
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11-13-2022 , 08:09 AM
Not a fan of flop bet vs capable player in the mix OOP 4 ways. Make your ptreflop $15 or a number where you get one or two callers.
Ugly river spot of my own making Quote
11-13-2022 , 09:06 AM
Flop bet is fine if your standard cbet is around 50% PSB. Nor am I folding to the raise.

Don't like the river bet after the raise/check scenario on previous streets. The villain either has great strength (which means you don't want to bet) or a draw that failed to get there (which means you won't get called). Just check and see what he does this with.
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11-13-2022 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by larry the legend
Not a fan of flop bet vs capable player in the mix OOP 4 ways. Make your ptreflop $15 or a number where you get one or two callers.
This was too early in the session for me to know that $10 was too small of a raise pre-flop (this was my first open from EP) but, looking over my notes, I still failed to make that adjustment by the end of the session. Something for me to be more aware of in the future.

Check/call flop definitely seems reasonable four ways. Appreciate the feed back.

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Flop bet is fine if your standard cbet is around 50% PSB. Nor am I folding to the raise.

Don't like the river bet after the raise/check scenario on previous streets. The villain either has great strength (which means you don't want to bet) or a draw that failed to get there (which means you won't get called). Just check and see what he does this with.
I think that you are right that checking river makes more sense than betting. I was afraid of missing out on value against 99-JJ which would always check behind. I also wasn't sure if there were any missed draws available for him to bluff - T9s maybe? If there was a flop flush draw that missed I would be more inclined to check-call for sure.

If I check and he jams river though, I don't know if I can call. Guess it would be a better spot than this one though.
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11-13-2022 , 01:34 PM
My initial response to the River is if you are just going to call when they shove over your blocking bet, you might as well just shove yourself. But since you didn't, As Played, you ought to fold here.

My other advice on the hand is after he raised you on the flop, you should have just gone all in. Villain is shallow enough that--as you saw--you can't really fold an over-pair to him, so if he has you beat you're going broke regardless. But shoving the Flop gets you value if you're ahead, because Villain will be priced in to call with his OESDs, will probably call with his JJ-88 hands, and, hell, might even call with his 7x hands once in a great while ("I put him on ace king!"). So I'm shoving all day long here. And if you're snapped off by 65s, oh well, it's not like you were ever folding anyway.
Ugly river spot of my own making Quote
11-13-2022 , 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by davomalvolio
My other advice on the hand is after he raised you on the flop, you should have just gone all in. Villain is shallow enough that--as you saw--you can't really fold an over-pair to him, so if he has you beat you're going broke regardless. But shoving the Flop gets you value if you're ahead, because Villain will be priced in to call with his OESDs, will probably call with his JJ-88 hands, and, hell, might even call with his 7x hands once in a great while ("I put him on ace king!"). So I'm shoving all day long here. And if you're snapped off by 65s, oh well, it's not like you were ever folding anyway.
Happy this was brought up. Immediately after the hand, I regretted not shoving flop. In the hand, I thought it was the best way to keep in hands I was dominating and I thought that it allowed me to potentially get away from a cooler situation. Even during the hand on the turn though, I realized that I can't really fold QQ at this stack depth. Certainly shoving the flop is the easiest play too, for whatever that is worth.
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11-13-2022 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan GK
I think that you are right that checking river makes more sense than betting. I was afraid of missing out on value against 99-JJ which would always check behind. I also wasn't sure if there were any missed draws available for him to bluff - T9s maybe? If there was a flop flush draw that missed I would be more inclined to check-call for sure.

If I check and he jams river though, I don't know if I can call. Guess it would be a better spot than this one though.
Was just re-reading my post and realized T9s is the nut straight here lol. Having a hard time coming up with any bluffs villain can have on this river unless he is bluffing with a made hand.
Ugly river spot of my own making Quote
11-13-2022 , 07:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan GK
Was just re-reading my post and realized T9s is the nut straight here lol. Having a hard time coming up with any bluffs villain can have on this river unless he is bluffing with a made hand.
87 and 74 are pretty good bluff candidates in this spot (Full House blockers), as are 98 and T8, but, Villain started the hand with only 85 BBs and only has 50 left on the River. He’s not bluffing here.
Ugly river spot of my own making Quote
11-14-2022 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by davomalvolio
87 and 74 are pretty good bluff candidates in this spot (Full House blockers), as are 98 and T8, but, Villain started the hand with only 85 BBs and only has 50 left on the River. He’s not bluffing here.
Yeah, that was the conclusion I came to as well. However...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordie
If I'm reading stacks and betting correctly you are getting better than 4:1 which is tough to say no to. If he has a 6 why doesn't he bet the turn? Might have 55 or 88. Any hands that you beat that he raises with make much more sense for him to just call - 89 99 TT JJ - unless he thinks you're the kind of player who might fold JJ QQ or KK to the raise
Gordie nailed it on the first post. I folded to the river jam. I asked Villain "what'd you have, pocket sevens or something?" and he replied: "I had Jacks, I was just making a move." I didn't believe him at first but then I realized it doesn't really make sense to lie about having that hand. I also checked in with him again hours later as I was leaving, and he confirmed that he did have Jacks. Asked if I had Queens or something, and I said yes and told him nice move.

Pretty confused by his play to be honest. I think JJ is the best hand on the river pretty often, as I could easily have 99-JJ myself. Also feels bad that he had the main hand I was targetting with my river bet and it didn't work out. Just got owned in this one I guess.

Does he check back the river with JJ if I check QQ? Don't know. Not sure what he does with JJ facing a 3bet jam on the flop either. I watched the guy make a couple really tight folds later on in the session (incorrectly folding 44 on K54Thhhx, correctly folding 56s to a tiny river bet on A5x5A) so maybe he finds the fold.

Gonna try to learn from this one. Good to have some more info on this guy if we play together in the future again.
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