I make it $20 with Ac5c in early position. CO, SB, and BB call.
$80 to flop of Ah6h5s.
I bet $30. Folds to BB who raises $70.
Let's assume BB only does this with two pairs and sets since he would take a larger sizing with this straight and flush draws.
So he has 4 combos of A5 hero ties with.
4 combos of sets, 6 combos of A6.
And 6 combos of 65.
So let's say Villain has 10:6 for hands that beat us to hands that we beat
So if hero beats approximately 40% of the combos he plays this way.
Can hero profitably call down on clean runouts if Villain's strategy with his entire range we mentioned above is to bets half pot every street?

Let's not.

Well, by all means, it's your party, it it's a terrible assumption.

Poorly written HH here, no effective stacks or action listed in turn, and no reads included on BB even though he check-raised flop. I also would have went for a $35-50 cbet on that flop texture. If he’s a nit call flop and re-evaluate turn, if he’s a spot, call and bet/raise brick turns looking to get it in. Probably fold pre if you are going to get one of the better flops for your hand and immediately start thinking you’re beat or you both have the same hand, on a draw heavy board.

You said you know villains range and strategy, how do you know and why didn’t you include any specific reads?

So assuming you're deep enough if he's making half pot bets all the way down you have to commit an additional 40 (flop) + 110 (turn) + 220 (river) = 370. Pot is 140 at the point of decision. If we neglect the fact that your hand has outs vs his sets and his 65 has outs vs your hand and just consider your odds of being behind are 10:6 or 5:3 based on your range assumptions then we can treat this as a one-street spot where v is betting 370 into 140 and your pot odds for calling down are 510:370 or 4.2:3. Since his better value outweighs his worse value 5:3 you're not getting odds to call down and you should fold.

Of course this assumes you are perfectly clairvoyant which you probably aren't.

Your range assumptions seem very artificial. I would think one of the primary hands V can have here is AK.

Btw since the A5 are chops you need to account for those 4 combos in the odds so you are actually behind:ahead at 12:8 and not 10:6. So you need at least 1.5:1. 510:370 is like 1.37:1 . So still a fold but closer than I said.

Thank you for the explanation Chaos

Wait are you advocating to fold flop? If so, you should probably post less, that is ridiculous.

Fairly clear he wasnt. He is not someone who should post less.

Read his post again. He does not believe OPs assessment of the situation but concludes if OPs assessment was correct then the math says yes fold.

No, he's not. He says you should fold flop if you are clairvoyant, but clearly states that OP is probably not and thst he should not make these assumption.

But he is thinking logically if hero knows villain's exact strategy, IE is clairvoyant. But there are other considerations also. What does villain do on non-clean runouts? Do we get free cards and/or get to showdown cheaper? But this just complicates the math a bit.

At the end of the day, we have one of our best hands we can have in this spot, and folding to such a tiny raise on the flop assumes an unrealistic level of being able to read an opponent while making us extremely exploitable.

Sorry my fault, I think the math is a waste of Chaos’ time and doesn’t help OP. Chaos says AK makes up a big part of his range, which I agree with but OP either has a read he’s not mentioning that makes him worried on that flop, making the thread pointless or he’s just scared money.

Chaos doing the math in that spot for him, is just going to make him more scared money in live 2/5 pools and it’s a waste for Chaos to crunch numbers when OP is not even posting stack sizes.

I agree with that. Also like Mlark said the math isn't even correct because there are a lot of scary runouts bringing a heart which probably would slow V down and so we won't have to commit the full 370 on flop/turn/river a decent percentage of the time, which probably tilts this more toward a call even under the very stringent assumptions. Of course, like I said I highly doubt the assumptions and would never consider folding this spot in practice unless I had some god-tier reads to support my case.

The HH was more of a thought experiment for me than a HH strategy question. The stack sizes were $1,000 effective. This Villain would likely 95%-100% 3 bet AK from the BB with 2 callers to my bet. I ended up calling the $70 on the flop cause I thought he was weighted towards value like two pair+ like I said. Maybe he has a hand like AJ or AQ that he decides to do this with and maybe some straight and flush draws, but the 2.3x sizing seemed heavily weighted towards two pair+.

I don't remember the exact turns and river, but he checked turn I check turn, river he bet $150 into $230 and I obviously call.
The flush did not complete. Might have been like an offsuit 2 on the turn and an offsuit T on the river.

I think it's a good thought experiment to think about. Here our hand is just to good to fold to a small bet. But there are other spots where we have bluff catchers on earlier streets, but even if villain will have only the appropriate amount of bluffs on the river, but has no give ups, then he is underbluffing earlier streets and we should overfold our bluff catchers.

V ended up having 65o for worse two pair. Did I miss value by not betting turn when he checks? If the primary value hand I get value from is 65 but he still has other two pairs in his range.