Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
you should try to respond this. im pretty sure your hand is strong enough to overbet (if you wanted) given the answer to this
Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
played fine but could conceivably size up ott. from a hand reading perspective what % of the time do you think you're beaten facing this line when it gets x to u otr? i cant imagine its more than like 10-15% of the time and i think its very close to 0 vs most people
I'll give it a shot...
I agree the turn bet not only could be bigger, I'll go a step further and say it should be bigger. I didn't mention it because the main question seemed to be about our action on the river.
To be fair, I could see betting small on turn to induce a maniac V to raise as a bluff. But I don't think I'd do it with a turned set that also completes a straight and flush draw, if only because I'd expect even a maniac wouldn't raise without some potential to improve on the river. And I'm not thrilled to bet small, get raised, 3B, and get jammed on, which could easily happen if V is as maniacal as described.
As played, I don't think we're beat on the river very often. I wouldn't want to try to guess at a percentage of time. I'd rather just say "very likely" or "very unlikely", and here, I think it's very unlikely we're beat.
My thinking is that maniacs are more likely to bluff turn or river here than slow-play a made hand. The value in being a maniac is that your value bets get called light.
Didn't want to beat up on our friendly neighborhood banana, but his logic seems to be "V could show up here, and check-raise jam with anything, so I don't want to bet for value and get raised off my hand," and I just don't see that as a good enough reason not to try to get more value on turn, and some sort of value on the river.
Reasoning is just what I said - I think V is going to raise turn for value, or donk-lead river for value, probably 3x-4x as often as he'd flat-call turn / check-raise river for value.
And if he did check-raise for value, I'd expect it to be a jam, whereas if he check-raises as a bluff, I'd expect it to be for less, because no matter what size he takes, he's bluffing, and we'll be calling wide, because he's a maniac.
So, I'd like a bigger bet on turn, and around a half-pot bet on the river. I'm willing to call off a ~3x-4x raise, but probably not an all-in jam. If he x/r-jams and shows me a bluff when I fold, so be it. We'll get here with stronger hands that can call.
