3/5 casino game
V (700) 35ish Asian male. Seems thinking, tighter and more aggressive when he does play than average. Could have said, TAG, but I mean it.
H 45ish white male. Been told I look like a whale, and will get called down light because of that.
Just sat down about 1 orbit ago.

H (500) has TT UTG+1, raise to 25, fairly standard sizing for this table.

V MP1 (UTG+3) raise to 50. V is thinking, prolly knows that I'm opening tight in UTG+1, so this is a tight 3bet. Prolly QQ+, AK, doubt AQ, JJ.

Folds to H, who min tanks (5-10 seconds) and calls.

Flop (53) A74ds, not any of H's suits.
Check/check, fairly quickly by V, but after a brief pause.

Turn (53) T, two tone board
H bets 40
V raise to 140
H raise or call?

Calling here is out of the question. Your choices here are raise or fold. If your read on the vill is correct, and if he's ranging you as tightly as you say, then what could he be three-betting here? If he's 3-betting ( AK ) he flopped TPTK, and maybe a flush redraw if suited, so why isn't he leading on that flop? If he 3! with a big pair, then, maybe he'd fear that ace, especially if he has Big Slick in your range? So how does the turn change anything? I highly doubt he shows up here with ( AT-suited ) and made a top two by accident.

The questions you need to ask here are:

Did he fear a c/r on the flop? He isn't putting pocket sevens in your range is he?

Could he 3! bluff pre with pocket sevens against a tight range, hoping that Big Slick whiffs?

If he picked up a backdoor flush draw, can he semi-bluff raise with it?

Could he check pocket kings, then pop the turn if your failure to c-bet convinces him you don't have an ace?

If he wouldn't do any of those things, then you've picked up just enough to get you into big trouble. Fold. You're only into this pot for 50, and the pot's not that large. You don't want to get felted in small pots, and there's a world of difference between flopping a set and tripping up on the turn.

If you do think he'd do something like that, then you need to think about stacking him. Come over the top for 200 more and take your chances he didn't 3! pre with pocket rockets.

$100 pot on flop.

Raise GII. He has AA in his range. You beat everthing else.

Make him pay for flush draws!!!! He will call with AK as well. Have seen alot of people checking back flops after they hit.

Not folding set for 100BB in a 3bet pot

Not folding getting 2.4:1 on my money

Edit:
Flop and turn pot is 103, not 53.
H bet 70 OTT and V raised to 240. Sorry.

It doesn't really mater what you do as long as you don't fold.

Villain is essentially putting you all in with that raise. You can call / call or you can GII on the turn I don't really think it maters. I would probably get it in just incase he has a combo draw that won't bluff it off on the river. You are also OOP so he could essentially check back. GII is better than calling but since he raised so big it looks like he wants to play for stacks.

GII. With some cards he might be able to get out on the river when u GII if he has like AK, KK or QQ, but i dont see how u can get out on the river. So its fold or GII now. I dont have fold button when i have a middle set on three bet pot unless of course if its like >400BB or super wet board, with straight or flush possibilities. His range looks like QQ+, AsKs and u r 77% favorite against that. Ofcourse u will run into a set of As sometimes, but if u start folding hands like these, u will basically be nut peddling and losing value on long range.

Calling is definitely one of the options we have. But we will need to evaluate why we are calling (or reraising) in this hand.

Pros and Cons of a Reraise?

Pro
1) To bloat the pot so that we can get to an all in scenario at turn or river.

Cons
1) Villains might correctly fold TP hands or even two pair hands if the villain is capable of doing so.


Why call?

Pro - To keep villain in the hand and allow him to make mistakes at river.

Cons - The pot may not be large enough to lead to an all in scenario at river.

As such, what should we do in this situation? This will largely depend on factors like:

1) WHat is the Hero's image?
- Has Hero been aggressive prior to this hand?
- Is Hero perceived as someone who can bluff? Or is Hero perceived as a tight fit and fold player?

2) What is the villain tendency?
- Is he likely to play back at someone or capable of bluffing?
-Is he aggressive?
-How likely is he going to make a river bet?

IMO, I feel that both reraise / call are alright.

Just that, if you call, what is your plan for river? There is one possible mistake Hero can make at river (Assuming he call turn) i.e., not being able to extract the maximum amount for your set of Ts.

My suggestion is that if you choose to call the turn reraise, you can consider donking at river. If you think he is likely to reraise a small donk bet, then allow him to opportunity to make the mistake of reraising you.

In any case, this hand demonstrates how difficult it is to play OOP, be it for maximising values or minimising losses.

I feel that we certainly need to consider all options to maximise our win rate, especially when we are OOP.

Oops, I just saw this after posting my previous posts.

Given the SPR, just go all in at turn.

Curse and swear if villain had AA but be happy because you amde the right play.

Why are we betting the turn?

For value. I'm not sure I understand the question. We don't want it to check through again. We would like to get it all in. V may check back KK QQ again. Also V may possibly have KQ suited so we'd be betting for protection.

Are you saying V can't have AX cuz he would have bet flop. So V only has AA KK QQ JJ and will only call if ahead?

Personally I think this is an interesting situation. V could be 3b here to figure out where he stands and will fold regardless to a shove. Also since he has position on you only call if you are checking the river and expect V to bet. Maybe he's 3b to get a cheap showdown on the river. So he can check behind.

I like getting it in. You're ahead most of his range

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Poor leverage sizing by V. He is now committed to calling your all in, so oblige him. You binked the turn and are now leveling yourself?

You believe V views your pf opening range as tight, so you r/c pre with TT oop. To set mine? You're getting no where near the right odds to set mine.

You r/c pre oop with TT for value and to keep his bluffs in? Seems outrageous and I doubt that's what you're doing.

Fold pre, Folding turn is AIDS. Pile them chips in the middle

Dont make this more complicated than it is. You need to get the money in now. Particularly with two flush draws on board you cannot give the villain a potential chance to hit without charging him his stack. Raising now also allows him to level himself into thinking you have a Fdraw.

His calling range should b wider on the turn not tighter plus you either get value from draws or make him fold his equity. Easy ship imo.

so if you answer this yourself, why is this a thread? half the deck is scare cards OTR...

obvious shove, obviously.




you are WAY WAY wrong on the bolded...

we have to call 25, eff stacks are 475 (after the 25 open), and there is 75 in the pot.

22:1 => where i come from, those odds are completely fine.

if V raised to 75+, then i would agree with you. it's a poor raise size.

I'd go ahead and shove on the turn. You lose to one hand. If he folds or has AA, so be it.

Not really sure how there's a question, you have to get it in.

You should definitely fear AA, but you're not getting away from it.

Easiest shove ever. You are crushing his range. I don't just flat, because there are draws in his range that he has to call with here but will fold if he misses.

I don't understand that question one bit either.

Leading on turn is good for many reasons, few on top of my head:

1. Our range looks wide because we sensed "weakness."

2. Picking up some value against draws.

3. Bloating up pots for bigger pay day on river.

What are we really targeting by shoving turn?

Obviously not JJ-KK.

So we're looking at what: combo draws and AK?

If flop is 2-tone (well it has to be because turn is 2-tone), then V is more likely to bet with strong value hands to "protect" his equity. If he doesn't bet with strong value hands, he's probably trying to set you up for bigger payday? Not sure how that can be the case if he isn't building the pot by skipping a street, unless he thinks you're a calling station whale that will call oversize bets.

Or another explanation is that he reads you for PP and that he did indeed flop a set of AA, and given his read, he's not worrying at all about the draw and wants to target the big chunk of your pre-flop calling range.

As you can see, it gets complicated without better read.

Not sure what I would do against strangers, but I don't think I have ever folded set without much stronger read.

The weird thing about this hand imho is that V shoulda bet any A in his range otf (only big Aces are in his range).

This is almost exactly what I was getting at with my question. You believe you're betting the turn for value because you think you can get called by KK/QQ, right? But when he raises, why is he raising? Can he be bluff-raising KK or QQ? Can he have checked AK on the flop and NOW wants to raise and get it in? These things don't make a lot of sense. You should only be happy getting it in if you think this can be a weirdly played AK. But in fact I think it is highly likely that Villain is telegraphing that he has AA and hoping you have a hand that's too good for you to care. (Note: where I play, a min-3bet, followed by checking back an ace-high flop and then raising a later street, is either AA or extreme FPS with air. Maybe this is different elsewhere?)

It is a good question, but I'm not folding a set 100bb deep against someone who min-raised pre-flop and is aggressive post, especially when they might think I'm a "whale."

Speaking of reads -- is your read on V after one orbit? Not sure that's enough. Is your assumption that he thinks your tight in EP based on one orbit, too? Or, do you guys have history?

Obviously, and any weird Ax in V's range.

We obviously can't anticipate a raise, and we shouldn't not bet just because he could raise.

AA - 3 combos
JJ+ - 18 combos.

Come on, math wiz like yourself should know.

ldo?

Yay, let's just make this a discussion of reads.

I totally get why you would fear AA here. You should. It's fairly likely.

But I won't make a decision based on just 3 combos when there are definitely other combos.

At the very least, there are 12 combos of a weirdly played TPTK.

But sure, you wonder if AK is really likely?

OK, let's significantly discount those 12 AK combos by > 80% to just 2 combos.

It's still a good shove (I'm treating villain's raise as an all-in).

Either way, a range of [3 AA, 2 AK] is a very simplistic nutted range.

I think you have to include one or two more combos of something.

But yes, the part of me that sometimes fears the worst and holds on tight to sad memories of bad beats wants me to fold... but I'm definitely not folding this hand. It's a shove for sure imo.