1/3 Sippi Straddle

Hero (550): Sitting in the TAG corner of the table, sandwiched between 2 young asian dudes. People have commented on our tightness, but all the made money is on this side of the table. I haven't bluffed yet tonight (Other than c-bets), only 3 hours in. Haven't been dealt AA or KK yet, so most of my wins have been off raises from the lower part of my raising range in pot controlled scenarios that go to showdown.

Villain (1300): Bought in for this amount, actually slightly on tilt over arguments that broke out about him buying in for more than the biggest stack. My reads on him aren't super strong, but I have seen him raise fairly light from MP, ex A5s. However, when he plays such a hand and hits, he has bet sizing tells. So a weak ace will be 1/2 psb on flop, then 1/3 psb on turn. Does the same thing with second pair. He will take the lead in multiway pots with second pair, with the same small size bets. With this said, he's somewhat of a thinking player. He knows odds, and has jokingly expressed various odds when talking about a fold or call.

OTTH:

V in MP
Hero in CO with 98

1 limp, V raises to 15, Hero calls, BB calls, Limp folds

Flop (45): A4Q
V leads with 30, Hero is sole caller.

Turn (105): 5
V leads 70, Hero Raises to 240, V calls

River (585): Q
V Checks, Hero?

My thoughts on this hand: Based upon his betting on flop and turn, he caught a strong hand. Since he was OOP, he didn't want to relinquish initiative by assuming I was chasing a flush and therefore he bet out. When he calls my raise, I'm thinking now that he bet out with the A or he has a set. I have no reason to believe at this point that he would have raised more pre with QQ or AA vs AQ AK AJ maybe even A-10. Unless he's just stubborn, he's got some equity.

why do you always say mississippi straddle when there is none?

i would shove

Because I hate the stupid joke of a straddle, and because these tables have been looser than any other I've played. So figure it may be useful info...

it makes your posts confusing because you imply that there is a straddle on the button when there is none

Ok, I'll stop.
I'm new lol.

Easy shove. Look closely at "how" villain checks this river. He may check AQ differently to how he would x AK. Given SPR, easy river vjam.

Is this really a shove? My problem may be that I can't make this call if I'm him, and therefore place my ability to fold on him. But what calls here that I'll beat, and is also reasonable?

Is it because I'm in position, and therefore my range is wider in his eyes?

You have less than a pot sized bet behind so I'm shoving here. No other bet really makes sense. You can sometimes get called by worse hands, but he should never have better hands as he should never be checking better on river. If he is, he's losing a lot of value long term.

AK, AJ, KQ, JQ, Qx can all call you here depending on the player

I wonder if the 'sometimes' out numbers the times they actually plan for the x/r or x/c with better.

It's not because you're in position, it's because the board pair is a scare card.

Let's assume his range when he calls the turn is limited to Acx, AxKc, AQ, and sets.

AQ and sets just made a boat. But in a giant pot, he should be open-shoving with that boat pretty often. This is a bad spot for him to try to check-raise, because (a) you have very few bluffs in your range and (b) you only have ~$275 left, so you'll be stuck calling with all flushes and undercoats.

So the hands that beat you are partially discounted.

The hands that lose to you are pretty strong bluff-catchers, though. And he can start wondering, since you were repping a flush on the turn, why are you jamming this scary river? So even though he SHOULD fold the hands that beat you, sometimes he's going to get stubborn and call.

If you think he gets stubborn and calls more frequently than he tries to check/call with a boat, then it's +EV to bet.

This river is one of those spots where I would have a really hard time deciding what to do...

I think we have to have the best hand here like 90% of the time, and with only about $260 left betting anything less than all in doesn't make a lot of sense. But do we really expect Villain to look us up with AK or AJ on this board? Does Villain ever show up with a lower flush? Would he ever bet/call the turn with a naked pair of queens, and now call off on the river with trips?

I dunno... I just feel like unless Villain is a complete drooler it's tough to get called by worse. Maybe I'm wrong and shoving river for thin value is the right play (edit - just saw sierradave's post and feel like the argument that Villain might be induced to bluffcatch probably has a lot of merit), but honestly if I'm in this spot I'm probably checking it back.

I think villain's range after the turn call should mostly consist of big aces with the Ac, two pairs, and sets. The only hands in that range that we can realistically vbet against are the big aces (and it's far from certain that he calls with them). Now obviously any hand that beats us should just shove the river, but the question is whether that fact allows us to discount the part of his range that beats us by enough that we can safely target the small piece of his range that will call us and lose. I tend to say no. People check big hands all the time when it makes no sense. Physical tells could be great here as well. Did he think before checking? Is he glaring at you to deter you from betting, or is he looking conspicuously away from the table?

Huh... So I just read about range merging last night. This is a merge.

I was actually just replaying this hand in my head earlier today, and was thinking from V's perspective, "You repped a flush on the turn, and now even though the board pairs putting a boat out there, you still shove??, Curious..."

I haven't made it to that level of play yet... but against this opponent, it might work. I played 10 more hours with him later in the night... he was solid enough to be level 3ish at times.

He called my turn raise fairly quickly, I didn't expect that. At this point his demeanor changed from upright and perky, to head down and hunched. He checks while staring at the board, then slowing looks to me.

Since you are asking about body language... mine may have affected it as well.
During the turn raise... I declare raise... 240. I then slide out 2 stacks of red and completely spazzed it up. Took me about 15 seconds to do it... stacks flailing, arms akimbo

Heh, maybe he has a KcJc or something. I would probably check back against someone acting like that.

I would just check the river. You have a tight image so the worst hand you could be betting with on the river is AK. Hence, I doubt he even calls a river bet with AK. And even if he would call with AK (12 combos) there are more than 12 combos of hands that beat you. I count at least 15 (AQ (4), AA QQ 44 (7) AKs, AJs KJs, J10s (4). In other words anything you bet on the river will be -ev.

Unfortunatley the ending is anti-climatic. I checked behind, and he mucked.
I was asking because of JohnnyBuz's previous post where he considered blowing a fish off his baby flush by shoving over the fish's blocker bet. I believe the board was paired.
I figure a good player could see my check behind and see it as an opportunity to exploit me in the future. One in a similar situation, but also, if I can't bet that, then every time I bet the river it must be the nuts. So just checking in.

But the assumption here is that he will check these hands on the river. It would be a huge mistake to do so, as so many scared flushes check behind.

Furthermore, there are also baby flush combos that can call a river bet.

I think it is a clear value shove in a vacuum. Live reads can obviously change that in any given situation.

I've seen a lot of people check a rivered full house after being raised on the turn because they expect the raiser to bet again . You're right in that checking with these hands is bad, but it does happen. Also, there aren't that many baby flushes as the v raised preflop, so maybe only 67s and 23s.

And the only way a shove is a clear value is if V calls with something like A10+. Maybe I am giving the V too much credit but hero does have a tight image and he raised the turn, which usually means monster. So I'm not sure a competent V would even call with AK.