$1/3 - sat down 15 minutes ago. Super passive table.

H ($350) gets A8s on button and flats the $3 after 3 limpets. 6 to the flop

Flop ($16)
A83r

Checks to H, lead for $15. Called by SB ($300 - older Asian lady), MP ($250 - older WG) and LP ($100 - MAWG).

Turn ($73)
Ah

Checks to H, H?

What’s best sizing to extract value? All V’s are unknown but presumably on the nittier side. Is This a reasonable spot to check it back?

Hell no, Im not checking back. I don't know what 3 people called you with on that dry flop but surely one of them has the other ace. You probably wont get any more from the other 2 unless one has 33 or A3, but you still have to bet.

Id bet $45 unless the turn added a FD. Then I might bet a tad smaller and give them odds to draw dead if someone happens to have something like 87 of the flush suit

Dream situation here. Bet and watch stacks go in.

What are you hoping for when you check it back... for someone to bet fold the river when you raise?

Don't get too fancy here...If they had a big hand they would call or raise your turn bet.

Mike, Homeless - thanks. I can’t imagine not betting here, which I did, make it $40, and it folded around. Was just wanting to make sure I didn’t under think the scenario. Still struggling to find 3 hands V can call the $15 with but none can call the $40 with.

Who knows people call in limped pots with middle pair bottom pair 99 all kinds of garbage hoping to make trips OTT. Your turn bet is fine and I would in fact go larger. Nobody is folding an A and nobody is calling without the A unless you have some crazy sticky players, so just size as if someone has an A and try to stack that person.

Also, I would bet even larger OTF. Like 20 to 25. People call overbets in limped pots way too much because they're thinking in terms of absolute dollars mostly.

Agree with everyone else, bet the turn. The fact that everyone folded means that nobody was going to put more money in the pot even if you checked the turn.

I probably raise pre here and punish the limpers. Your hand plays well heads up IP or multiway, and you're unlikely to be up against a premium hand, so I'd start building a pot.

Heads up there might be some merit to checking back and trying to induce your opponent to make a bad decision, but 4-ways just bet the turn. While it's a pretty dry board so there aren't really any draws to extract from, just keep barreling and hope someone has an A or some other fishy calldown.

Best sizing would be the highest amount that would get called by most amount of V's which is impossible to know without seeing everyone else's cards..

You should be thinking how to get your stack in by the river. I would bet 50 here sometimes argument for an overbet can also be made

I think best case scenario is to bet around $35, expect one caller at most then value bet river for like $90 and pray to get called by a naked ace.

Lol... if V is going to call 35 hes going to call 50.. u trolling?

Grunch

First instinct is to just bet 30 and hope one of them has an A.
However the board is so bone dry that its hard to see any of them having anything to call with.
If one of them has an A they'll prob bet it if checked to, and if it checks through the last to act is the short stack - if he's at all tilty/stabby/agro there's a reasonable chance he'll just jam to steal cause 'everyone checked so they must not have the A'.....
So maybe I'll go out on a limb and check

just read the responses and I guess I was pretty far out a limb/out to lunch with the check

It's a passive 1/3 game. I wouldn't necessarily expect anyone to bet a non-boat A, especially if there's some kind of HH promo. The SS jamming into 3 players without an A seems like pretty wishful thinking.

I mean...yeah maybe it could go like that but generally these players call much wider than they bet.

Yeah definitely bet here and I would expect very inelastic calling ranges which means I would size up very much. At least $50. Basically one of your opponents either has an ace/smaller boat in which case we should be able to get stacks in by river against most low limit players. Or they have a pair less than an ace in which case they're probably not calling any turn bet.

And you know this how? You know villain? You’ve played with him before?

I see this sort of thing fairly frequently in my game TBH, but certainly it would have been unlikely in the last game I was a reg in.

Even ignoring that, besides an A or set (which should bet if checked to anyway) what can we possibly hope to get a full 3 streets from here?

I still like checking, hope for somebody to try to rep the A, let somebody river a set, give the shorty some rope to hang himself...

The main downside to checking I see are
- maybe loses a street of value from passively played 99-kk which would have called two small bets.

I dunno, with the board this crippled and dry, betting just seems optimistic/futile.

im ok with the limp pre.

always betting turn. 'bout $45

They called with *something* OTF. It's reasonable to expect some of them to call a bet again. If they're strong enough to bet when we check they'll call a bet with less. Checking so someone rivers a set is really unlikely. If all three have a pocket pair that's what 13% they boat up? I'm betting the turn 1000%. Players at this level just have so much AX in their range

Calling size inelasticity..... I bet a lack of understanding of that concept is on of the largest leaks for most folks. This thread is a good example. Thanks for the reminder.

Ok so everybody ITT including some good/experienced posters is advocating for the bet.
As Joey says, the bet targets naked Ax and boats.
All boats and like 90% of Ax will bet when checked to, surely? If they have a boat we can GII easy whether we bet or check.

I know its not likely, just like its unlikely that the short stack will try a steal jam, but if we're confident that the only hands we're targeting with a bet will bet when checked to anyway, what do we lose by checking?

As I see it all we lose by checking is
- maybe 1 small street of value from non-believing PP's/8x
- lets weak Ax set the price, ie they would call 50 but might only bet 20, in which situation we can c/r and risk losing them, or flat and make a weird looking river donk.

Not trying to be obtuse here, but this spot is bugging me

Op,

Bet 55-60.

If there is a HH we absolutely cannot expect AX (or even boats) to bet. Even if there isn't I would expect checking AX maybe half the time and boats 1/4 the time because of how much players at this level like to be sneaky.

Maybe your games are really different but IME they call much wider than they bet. I am shocked by how often I see people check flopped trips twice and then win a tiny 1/3 psb river bet. Even on non-threatening boards. But they do not fold trips.

Yeah having re-read the OP

I guess expecting all Ax to bet if checked to is probably optimistic....

My current regular game is def more agro, has no HH, and I was somewhat projecting those conditions onto the OP, suffering from a sorta recency bias.

Appreciate the responses

I'm cool with preflop.

I probably bet smaller on the flop (the thinking being that unless I'm against morons I don't want to overbuild the pot here from the get go).

WTF to this flop action? 3 calls on this board!?!? Honestly, unless everyone is a moron, alarm bells should be ringing, imo.

This is an awesome turn card as we just counterfieted 88/33 and A3 is never going to be able to get away and possibly even some AK/etc. hands. I would never check back this turn and it's possible we just coolered multiple people. I would bet large, maybe even PSBing it, in order to play for stacks on the river.

GcluelessNLnoobG