1/3 live.

Main villain is in the BB and is the effective stack with about 450. He plays an extremely wide range including flatting hands like 84s and he will chase draws. I think he likes to spread the idea that he is a wild and crazy player by playing a wide range but when he bets or raises he actually seems to have it.

Hero has a pretty aggressive image, but not a wild one, and has been showing his bluffs. He also is on an obscene heater.

Hero opens AhQd UTG to 12
Button calls villain call from the BB.

Flop AcQs9s

Pot:34

Check, Hero bets 30, button folds, villain calls.

Pot:92

Turn: 8h.

Check, hero bets 85, villain calls.

Pot:262

River: 5s completing the flush.

Villain donks for 100.

I think I'm very very often beat but I wouldn't be shocked if he turned something like AJ.with the As into a bluff.

Don't show your cards.

OTTH

Check your formatting. Was the flush a backdoor? You're only showing Qs 5s right now.

Since you've been showing bluffs, I lean towards call. He's giving us an excellent price. Might have thought you had air but he also had **** so he had to take a stab. He also might have backed into 2p himself.

Crap the 9 on the flop was a spade. I fixed it my bad. I tend to be value heavy at stationy tables why not show bluffs vs non-thinking players? Not something I do at every table.

Is your objection that if I show bluffs otherwise face up and passive players will play back at me more?

I also don't do it against like 80 year old nits or a nice guy who is already stuck I'm not a complete *******

Against "wild and crazy" player I think I find a call here. He can probably have enough spazes to justify the odds we're getting.

We usually lose of course.

Oh, man...., I'm gonna write again a long post but I cannot help it because this is such a supreme subject. I can't help my self. Sorry. haha (LOL)

If your villains have the tendency of calling, in that case you bet preflop much heavy not just 4bb like you did in this situation but make it at least 10bb or even more with $450 effective. You have a powerful starting hand with two big cards value. Why I'm saying this? - Well,... you got to change your concept of why raising and how much percentage of effective to raise in order to come out ahead.

Here I give to you again: The most important fact about NL is that hitting flops is not where the money comes from. This point is so important I will say it again. Hitting flops is not where the money comes from. Your money are coming winning pots before showdown. The bigger pots you win without a showdown the more ahead you will be in your career. Winning on the showdown will be around 53-56%. Yes, you lose almost half of pots at showdown even if you play very well and perfect poker. And guess what? The pots decided at the showdown are the pots you hit flops and villain hit the the same flop at the same time else he would not be at the showdown with you and in that case you win before showdown. That's why the ration is around 50/50. You understand this concept? -- OK .. I hope you do.

So, in order to capitalize on this you got to charge villains big to see flops because they will only flop a pair 33% of the time and you grab the remaining of 65% of inflated pots that they accepted to participate. That's why you got to punish the tendency of suckers that like to call or limp too much.

Here is the secret where money are hidden in NL. .. Pay attention to me Jack! .., because this is Gold, this is key to unlock the money bag.

If you look around in your basic everyday games in most card rooms each table has a player or two who seems to be constantly raising. Do they do this because they’ve discovered it’s the way to win? Or do they know something most of the average players don’t fully understand?

- Is this a fair question to you?

I would say: Well, they have discovered the way to win. Whether they do it simply because they happened to hit upon it, or because they know something, I don’t know. But the fact is, raising is the way to win. There are many players who have just hit upon it, without understanding the underlying theory. And then, there are those who understand the theory. But the fact is, raising is the way to win. Those players who don’t raise a lot will not win. In almost all games raising is an extremely important weapon that must be used much more often than the typical player realizes.

Even in the smaller games. Raising, and that doesn’t mean that you play a lot of hands, that simply means that those hands you have chosen to play, you should frequently raise heavy with. Calling or raising small like 4bb is not something you do frequently, calling should be your last alternative. There are times when calling is the right thing to do, but never miss an opportunity to at least consider charging the limpers big tax fee for their tendencies of "wanting to see flops". Always consider raising. These people who raise and then they win – that’s why they win, because they raise.

Hitting flops is not where the money comes from. Always remember this Jack!

Well said, outdonked.

Result: hero folds. I wanted him to show so I said "if you had red KJ that was a good bluff" He showed the As and for whatever it's worth told me later I was beat. Given that he beat me to the middle on the turn it makes sense that he actually had it because he would have probably at least thought about it if he didn't have the flush draw to go along with his ace. I feel comfortable with the decision I made even though it's close.

I always find preflop pretty difficult at this table with AQo in EP, but in the end we managed to get this 3ways, position on one of the opponents, and a nice SPR around 12ish which gives us some wiggle room postflop.

I'd also bet large on this flop.

I'm a little undecided on the turn. One of the main draws got there (JT), although obviously the flush draw hasn't. Are we comfortable stacking off if he check/raises? He could have some junky two pair in his range, so perhaps we should be? But in general, for getting in just 2.5% of our stack preflop, I'm not comfortable stacking off against most players even with top two. We also have a draw to a nuttish hand that we'd hate to get blown off of (i.e. if we're thinking of folding to a check/raise). And checking back will show a lot of weakness and might get a busted flush draw to bluff the river (noting a flush draw will bust 1 in 5 times, giving him far more opportunities to bluff than to value bet). Course, pot is huge and giving a free card with a hand so good is kinda meh; it's debatable at the very least (imo).

I'm probably calling the river given the odds. It's possible he's made a junky two pair (possibly on the turn) and yet realizes he shouldn't be going to war with it against our EP raising range on this board. He did call an almost PSB on the turn, although I guess he could have a gutshot to go with his flush draw.

ETA: I'm not convinced Villain had nut flush having shown the As, cuz that would mean he simply check/called TP + nut flush draw on the flop (which is the proper play, imo, although most opponents incorrectly overplay this hand by raising).

Glotsofdifferentoptionsinthishand,imoG

I sometimes fold this hand pf from UTG given table dynamics so I'm not sure we should ALWAYS he opening in this spot. I really like the sizing preflop and post flop but turn sizing seems a little too much. I understand why we're doing it but it seems like we will be unbalanced most of the time.
I wouldn't be super convinced that V had the flush and lean more towards flatting but I guess given table dynamics a fold is ok. On the other hands, $100 is a good sized bet at most $1/3 tables and nearly like 90% of players I play with are not capable of bluffing for this amount.

I like betting the turn because this villain is known to be loose, we are very often ahead with top two, and I don't think we are getting raised that often on the turn. We will sometimes get raised and get put in a tough spot, but I think this hand is just too strong to not go for value with given how many hands we beat and how many draws he can have. Sure he can have JT or slowplayed 99 but he also has a ton of two pair combos, draws and some stubborn aces.

River I feel good about but I could easily be wrong. My decision was based on population tendencies and I think he rarely has a bluff since most of his bluffs got there, I've shown a ton of strength, and I think he's rarely if ever bluffing here without the As.

FWIW, I also don't think he's ever bluffing. But I think (?) he may be betting enough worse hands for value, especially on this ugly card where he knows he can set his own price and is unlikely to get raised.

GtoughspotG