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tricky OESD situation tricky OESD situation

10-15-2015 , 09:08 PM
1-2.

The table is super-sticky preflop so I've mainly been saving my aggression for post-flop. I've been very aggressive in targeted spots; after five hours I've probably been all-in five times with an assortment of bluffs and semi-bluffs.

I've built my stack up to about $600.

V1 is a MAWL, ballcap, sweatshirt. She appears competent. I don't peg her as weak or tight.
V2 is a middle-aged Asian. I played with him once before and he was super aggressive.

V1 and V2 are both new to the table within the past orbit and sit to the dealer's immediate right. They both have roughly their full buy-in, so about $250-$300. I'm to the dealer's immediate left, so I haven't had a chance to study them. Although they haven't seen my various all-ins, I'm pretty sure my comportment and dress today indicate an aggro, gambling-type of player.

I have 9Tin MP. V2 raises to $12 from UTG+2. I just call. I suspect we'll get a big family pot.

Indeed, five callers, so six-handed with $74 in the pot before the rake.

Flop is 578, with one heart.

I'm looking at the high end of an OESD and a backdoor flush to boot.

V1 starts the action with a bet of $45. She's donking into five players. I read this as a very, very confident bet. All her mannerisms are very confident.

V2 bets something like $115. Interesting! Yes, he's aggro, but he just bet more than 1/3 of his stack, over the top of a very strong bet, with four players still to act. This is a very strong move and doesn't feel at all like aggro b.s.

My turn to act. What do I do?
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 09:29 PM
shove or fold as you can't call here as shallow as you are. Think that with a bet and a raise in front of you its just a fold as based on how you described the players you aren't getting too many folds by shoving.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 09:34 PM
I'm folding.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 09:51 PM
fold
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 09:53 PM
Fold. We have no FE and I can't imagine we've got even 30% equity here most of the time.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 09:58 PM
+1 in the fold.i did some quick calcs and it looks like your equity will be in the 25-30% range against what they're repping (and I mean if either of them has more than 1 pair than your equity is not above this) generally. In a 3 way pot you'll need 33% equity (a little less w the dead money but not much) to get your money back.

The problem is going to be that you can't really ever jam and expect them both to fold, or at least not enough to raise your odds. Generally one will call and you'll still be too big of a dog HU against their calling range, also there's almost no playability left w your hand if you brick the turn, you have to get a ton of money in bad. Fold and let the hand cost you $12. Wait until you have the same flop w 2 hearts or a J or 6 instead of the 5.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 10:00 PM
fold... pre
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 10:26 PM
Fold pre. Fold now.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-15-2015 , 11:19 PM
go for the shove and hope for the best

But seriously fold here. 1 player got a set and another probably an overpair. In general just let this go while you flopped a draw,you are in for 12 bucks,you are miles behind and if you call and brick the turn you are just lighting money on fire
Even if you just call and spike a 6 on the turn are you going to get paid?? Really on need to hit the J to get some chips
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 12:27 AM
call pre is fine if you know the players behind you well btw. you are going to have to make moves with draws on flops sometimes but this is not the spot IMO. fold and move on
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 12:45 AM
Pf is marginal but prob fine with position. Fold flop. OESD's don't fare well against a set of flopped straight
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 10:41 AM
At the table, my thought process was:

If I shove, I have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting my straight, plus my backdoor flush gives me a little more equity. If I shove, I fully expect two callers, so I'll be getting break-even odds on just the shove alone, even if there weren't already $70 in the pot. Plus I just might be surprised and fold them both out.

So I shoved; it seemed like a no-brainer, in fact. It was a much-commented-on move. I don't think anyone else at the table thought it was smart.

I turned out to be against a set and the bottom end of a made straight, so I had about 25%. At the time of my decision it could have ranged from about 25% to 33%. (At the table I slightly overestimated my actual equity; I would only have had 33% if one opponent had an overpair.)

Still ... my back-of-the-envelope EV calcs this morning all suggest it was roughly a break-even move. I'm not convinced it was a bad move. When I have more time I'll do a more thorough EV calc and share it here.

Even if it ends up being ever so slightly -EV depending on the assumptions you punch into the equation ... I think it's a very defensible move in terms of table dynamics. I don't have a fully fleshed out theory for this, but I seem to do well when people think I'm a wild card.

To wit: A few hands later I finally hit the big hand I'd been waiting for. Because everyone at the table thought of me as a loose cannon, I easily felted a guy.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 11:09 AM
we only have 8 outs vs an overpair, no fold equity. snap folding. Next hand please.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesFrancis
I turned out to be against a set and the bottom end of a made straight, so I had about 25%. At the time of my decision it could have ranged from about 25% to 33%. (At the table I slightly overestimated my actual equity; I would only have had 33% if one opponent had an overpair.)

Still ... my back-of-the-envelope EV calcs this morning all suggest it was roughly a break-even move. I'm not convinced it was a bad move. When I have more time I'll do a more thorough EV calc and share it here.

You're going to have to get incredibly generous with ranges to get yourself to 33% equity. I had a hard time getting you to 30% since this is pretty much never just a naked pair by anybody. It's just not a good spot.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesFrancis
1-2.

The table is super-sticky preflop so I've mainly been saving my aggression for post-flop.
good

Quote:
I suspect we'll get a big family pot.
That's fine, but realize not all the brothers and sisters are as deep as you are

Quote:
V1 starts the action with a bet of $45. She's donking into five players. I read this as a very, very confident bet. All her mannerisms are very confident.
Not to mention the fact that she just put 20% of her stack in all at once

Quote:
V2 bets something like $115. This is a very strong move and doesn't feel at all like aggro b.s.
No ****. This hand is over, or is fixing to be over, and technically right now you don't actually have anything.

It's not just SPR, it's effective stacks too. It's hard because you can be up against umpteen different stacks at once, some deep and some not. Watch the short stacks, they are always gonna be looking for a chance to shove on you.

No biggie. Win some, lose some.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesFrancis
To wit: A few hands later I finally hit the big hand I'd been waiting for. Because everyone at the table thought of me as a loose cannon, I easily felted a guy.

Sick brag.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 07:42 PM
Not to beat a dead horse, since everyone is in agreement I played this wrong, and I'll accept that verdict. My EV calcs come out to a shove having an EV of -4. Given that there was $800+ in the middle ... the EV comes out to -0.5% of the total chips in play ... still seems like it's fine to shove here.

To get to -4 EV, I figured:

10% I take it down preflop.
10% I end up HU and with 30% equity [and that both Vs have exactly 250 after the preflop action]
80% I end up against two Vs with 30% equity.

The numbers can me moved around to get it to slightly +EV, but I'll accept that the play is slightly -EV. That said, it still seems more like a playing style question than a definite fold.

Anyway, as always thanks for the responses.
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 07:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesFrancis
Not to beat a dead horse, since everyone is in agreement I played this wrong, and I'll accept that verdict. My EV calcs come out to a shove having an EV of -4. Given that there was $800+ in the middle ... the EV comes out to -0.5% of the total chips in play ... still seems like it's fine to shove here.

To get to -4 EV, I figured:

10% I take it down preflop.
10% I end up HU and with 30% equity [and that both Vs have exactly 250 after the preflop action]
80% I end up against two Vs with 30% equity.

The numbers can me moved around to get it to slightly +EV, but I'll accept that the play is slightly -EV. That said, it still seems more like a playing style question than a definite fold.

Anyway, as always thanks for the responses.
this doesn't make sense
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-16-2015 , 09:30 PM
I think you have to look at those numbers.
While you can do the numbers when you know what they have it is easy but during the hand you can only go by whst range you think they have.
Pre i dont really mind either way could 3bet can flat
On the flop give the action against 2 players and there given ranges of set/overpairs/low straight at best you are 20-22%
I just dont think this is a spot to get your money in
tricky OESD situation Quote
10-17-2015 , 08:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesFrancis
Not to beat a dead horse, since everyone is in agreement I played this wrong, and I'll accept that verdict. My EV calcs come out to a shove having an EV of -4. Given that there was $800+ in the middle ... the EV comes out to -0.5% of the total chips in play ... still seems like it's fine to shove here.

To get to -4 EV, I figured:

10% I take it down preflop.
10% I end up HU and with 30% equity [and that both Vs have exactly 250 after the preflop action]
80% I end up against two Vs with 30% equity.

The numbers can me moved around to get it to slightly +EV, but I'll accept that the play is slightly -EV. That said, it still seems more like a playing style question than a definite fold.

Anyway, as always thanks for the responses.
With a "super-sticky" preflop dynamic, I can see me flatting in MP. So long as I believe that the vast majority of the time there will be no raise behind me.

Still, with the stacks are shallow as they are at the table, I'm not so sure I'm correct. Probably depends on your image & how much control you have over the table.

Sure, the players have ~$260+ however, do they have $$ in their pockets to re-load? Or, are they a one-shot rec?

I also am going to have to believe I have players who will call light post-flop to help make the investment worthwhile. You're a ~20:1 dog to flop 2pr or better, so ........ gotta' count on those flopped draws making you money.

Personally, I have to believe I can make somewhere around 25x my investment preflop when I call with a SC, unless it's high enought that I think I can take it down with top pair on the flop.

On the flop, this is a shyty fold because we have 2 draws but are most likely so far behind that it doesn't pay to call. Damn! Flop sumpin' good & gotta' go!

There are way too many situations in low stakes games that come up where you have a wider margin, that it doesn't [to me anyways] make sense to chase narrow margins. Especially when your assessment at the table is an estimate & you have a margin of error.

You're an intelligent guy. You know what to do. I say that because your OP is the 1st I've seen someone use the word comportment
tricky OESD situation Quote

      
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