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Tough turn spot with AA

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05-07-2017 , 05:26 AM

niceguy22

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 824

1/2

Villain 1 is a fairly competent player. He's a bit of a non-believer/curious.
Villain 2 is loose passive. Chases any draw.

villain 1 limp utg (covers)
Hero raises to $15 utg+1 with A

($400)
Villain 2 calls utg+2 ($200)
2 more calls

5 ways to the flop ($75)
T

check, hero bets $50, villain 2 calls, fold, fold, villain 1 calls

Turn: ($225)
T

Villain 1 leads $75, Hero?

Relatively small bet but seems like a weird spot for a bluff, or even a T but I'm sure theres some (small) amount of Tx in his range that I beat. 79 probly right in his range. Probably the most likely hand imo.

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05-07-2017 , 05:42 AM

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

It feels like you have to call, this is a dangerous board and he'd have checkraised with a strong hand OTF. That leaves 86 and 97 as candidates for having beaten you on the turn. If it's 86 you're going to need to make the call given odds.

He could just have 97 and have us drawing dead, but I'm not willing to just put him on one hand and fold when we only need like 20% equity to make the call. He could easily have some hand that picked up drawing equity OTT and wants a cheap river, something like T9, T7, 87 etc.

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05-07-2017 , 07:12 AM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

preflop raise size is fine

Call turn and see what happens on river. Could just as easily be a blocking bet with Tx with that sizing.

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05-07-2017 , 08:29 AM

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

If hes a "fairly competent player" he shouldn't have 97 UTG. Id lean more towards him having a set and not wanting you to check behind on the turn.

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05-07-2017 , 08:33 AM

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 26,035

There's too many things he can have that you still beat to fold. If he has a FD, he's priced (most likely by pure luck) as a GTO play. Since we weren't looking to get 200 BB in with just a pair, I'm not upset by this play and would call. If he has the straight or a set and the flush doesn't come on the river, he'll shove and we can just get out of the way.

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05-07-2017 , 08:38 AM

white_lytning

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 552

Why is 97 and 86 in his range in this hand? Doesn't fit description.

How have you been playing? If you have been aggressive I would expect most sets + to check raise here more often than to lead on turn.

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05-07-2017 , 05:00 PM

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

If he has a FD, he's priced (most likely by pure luck) as a GTO play.

Only if you never raise. GTO bluff donk to pot ratio should be less than the probability of hitting the draw.

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