1/3 live $380 effective. Villlain is unknown 40’s male. Doesn’t seem like a whale but who knows. Have seen him play a decent amount of hands in the 30 min I’ve been there but no aggressive actions or 3 bets.

Hero opens 66 to $12 in the HJ, BB calls.

Flop: 6hTsQh

Pot:$24.

Hero bets $25, villain calls.

Turn: Ad

Pot: $72.

Villain checks, hero bets $50, villain raises to $125, hero calls. I think a turn shove would be reasonable but opt to call.

Pot:$ 322

River: offsuit 7.

Villain shoves for $220. Hero calls.

So we need to be good here 29% of the time.

Let’s say he has one combo of sets, and 16 combos of KJ. If that’s the case, we need him to have 7 combos of AQ/bluffs. There are 9 combos of AQ available.

Do you see villains playing enough of their AQ this way?

vs an unknown AQ is a def possibility. Obv KJ you will see fairly often, but I'm calling down here to start vs an unknown villain. AT is also a possibility

This is a good hand history format, a good hand example, and your thinking is sound and succinct.

I wish all hh were posted in this format.

I hate these spots. V has KJ/AQ/AT like always here. Unable to decide without more reads, but mostly just paying it off.

If those behind us are tight then I don't mind preflop, especially if we're expecting this result (HU in position with initiative). Although, as the hand shows, we really set ourselves up for playing for stacks if we flop a set, which against certain opponents this deep might not be a good thing.

Even with the raise the SPR is a fairly large 15 where it will be difficult to get stacks in without overbetting a street or two. Still, in position we can still play for decent sizes of the stack. I like our PSB on the flop (and might even go slightly larger $30 here just to get the ball rolling even more).

I think I shove the turn. You'd think AA/QQ would mostly 3bet an LP open, and sometimes even TT (although not always). KJ is obviously a possibility but we have outs. Otherwise this board has a bunch of two pairs on it that could consider themselves nuttish. So lets do this before a scare card comes. In an unraised smaller pot I think we might have to think twice about playing for stacks, but not in a pot that is now this big (thanks, for better or worse, to the preflop raise).

As played, I'm fine with the river call. I don't think it's a fistpump, but I'm not sure what else we can do.

Gsleepinginthebedwemade,imoG

Why would you hate this spot if V has hands we beat most of the time?

Call.

I'd say they play AT more like this, and more raise AQ on this flop texture.

Like the hand as played if you called the river. Not going to get away from a set 125bb deep with no flush draws and a single possible straight. Enough 2 pair combos to give us the odds to call but I expect to lose more often than win when I see the river shove.

u can try and construct ranges where this is a fold but realistically i'm always just calling off here at 1/3. i'm probably just getting it in on the turn given scare card potential. but you played it fine, if he had the straight or tens, whatever, next hand. too often unknown villains at this level show up with like, wtf, and you think wow why did I even tank. but ya also two pair combos are enough

Not in my games.

^^ i've seen a lot of comments like this recently. makes me reflect on the importance of game availability and getting action. i can't imagine grinding nitty games

I played in a game today where I saw multiple horses’ asses limp call Aa, Kk, QQ OOP, so not all people 3B AA or QQ. That said, 1010 and KJ I think makes up a large part of villain’s range. Obviously the 7 on the river changes nothing so your decision is based in your turn decision. I’d probably call as played, but I’d at least think about before I did.

What am I missing? You know we have a set, right?

But V has KJ.

I totally agree, and FWIW I'm not making a judgement on that kind of play either (as depending on dynamics it may be a perfectly fine play).

GcluelessNLnoobG

That's not what you said. You said V has KJ/AQ/AT always, not that V has KJ always. If you had, I wouldn't have commented on your post.

Yeah, my bad. I meant KJ mostly with some two pairs. Regardless, I’m not folding either.

Grinding nitty games are my bread and butter. You bet 1/2 pot on the flop and they fold when they missed, printing money. If they try to play back at you (they will eventually) they get out of their comfort zone & mess up big.

As played easy call, he can be betting worse for value. Sorry he had KJ this time.

Villain is never raising AT here. We bet massive on 2 streets, the most obvious straight in the world just got there, and people are putting him on AT?

I'd give him about 2 combos of AQ (discounted from 9 combos), 2 combos of weirdly played QQ/AA (discounted from 6 combos) and the other 16 combos of KJo.

In other words, I think we're beat 90% of the time (18 out of 20 combos), so I fold river. I'm only calling turn to boat mine with the intention of donk jamming rivers if I fill up.

I agree. I make a lot in nitty games. Thing is, they give away their hand strength so easily. You can bluff the crap out of them. I do very well in such games.

I think shoving the turn over his raise is much better than calling down.

ya you can totally make $. it's good to have a gear for nitty games regardless in case you find yourself having to sit in one for a bit for some reason.

there's a level of self awareness that's important in poker where you need to understand what style of playing you're best suited for and game select appropriately. nitty vs action as well as short handed vs full ring are key distinctions. personally i do best in deep-stacked action games. thus my desire to properly learn PLO (coming soon). but to each their own.

agree

I like turn shove. He felts way more 2p with this line than you passively calling down.

Wish we had a better read here. Like how he plays draws. He just flats a flop overbet with KJ always? I have to assume some villains are raising KJ OTF particularly the combos with a FD or BDFD so I don't know why we give him all 16 combos. I would give him more like 12 to 13 readless. In that case finding 4 combos of worse hands is enough.

I call but it's close and I prefer shoving the turn.

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Snap call but no fist bump

Ditto. I much prefer the deep action games, and I play PLO whenever it's offered. Even better is having a nitty player or two in the deep action game

I like shoving the turn in this hand better than calling down, but I don't think I'm ever folding.