Ok, I played this hand about an hour ago.
What does villain have here, in your opinion?
Game is 5/5 and villain sat down five minutes ago. Early 40s heavy bald man wearing business attire, no tie (BB, $500). I have about $700.

I limp in UTG with JJ
Two more limps and villain makes it $30, two callers including me.

Flop ($100) 329

Villain bets $75, only I call

Turn ($250) 10

Villain checks. I bet $125, Villain calls.

River ($500) Q

Villain shoves all in for $235
Hero ???

Hero: Do you show if I fold?
Villain: Sure, why not.


So yeah, I've never faced this line before and found it quite hard to define his hand.

Raise pre first in. I think he has QQ and got a little scared on the turn. It's very rare he is going to take this line as a bluff ever. You're no good here.

The problem is we don't have a read.

He's repping really thin. Broadway clubs make some sense; hands like AcQc and KcQc. Same thing for spades; AJ and AK suited spades.

There really aren't that many other value hands he can have that make sense, but we don't even have a read here that says his line should make sense.

On the flip side, this is a bluff a lot of the time with busted clubs repping having hit the Q or the backdoor spades.

I'm surprised you say you haven't seen this line before; I see it quite a lot, and it's really close as to whether it is usually a bluff or value in terms of frequency. I snap call here, based on my sense that this is a bluff roughly about as often as it is value. So my thinking readless here is I'm going to play against the tendency of my field, and not worry too much about this particular guy.

I don't dislike folding here, though. If you haven't seen this line before, maybe your game plays differently than mine, and you don't have the same info on your field I have on mine.

All I can really say is in my game I call expecting to lose almost exactly half the time.

ETA: if he snap shoved that'd lean me more toward calling.

ETA2: Agree with above poster saying raise pre. Not sure what limping was all about.

FWIW, I play in Sydney and the games are pretty soft here. And by that, I mean:
I would expect villains to ship/check ship their AcQc and KcQc type hands on the turn more often than call turn then ship river. The former line is the fishier line which I see quite often, i.e. they take lines that are very face up.

The tendency of the field (in my games) is that when they take this line (the one I faced), they have it far more often than not.

Villain did snap shove, yes.

At the time, the line itself conveyed strength and I didn't see myself calling at all, to be honest. It would've been a pretty comfortable call for instance, if he had barreled three streets.

Limping hands like these is a bad habit of mine which I'm trying to stop. Can't help myself for some reason.

Fair enough but would he ship the river with his set with a possible flush out there?

His most likely holding feels like Qxcc. Missed the flush, hit top pair. Maybe KJcc, hit the straight.
With your hand, I like opening for a raise or maybe limp raising pre. If you limp pre, def raise this flop. With how you played it, raise flop to $200, ship turn would have been interesting. As played, I think fold.

First hand at a new table, most likely he's playing ABC with a hand he would never consider folding. So most likely he was unpaired and missed the flop but was somewhat married to his hole cards, and took two off.

He almost always has an ace in the hole, because he didn't play it like KK. A lot of his range includes a queen, a lot of it doesn't. Q J looks pretty good to him. Do your poker thing and make the right play.

Limping UTG with JJ is pretty horrible IMO, Its a really strong hand, but you don't want to take it multiway and especially not OOP. Unless your planning to re-reaise if someone raises, which you obviously were not, then i really hate this. As played post flop seems fine. From a guy playing ABC poker think this is a fold, never has worse value and if he is capable of bluffing here wouldn't he just continue bluffing turn most of the time.

Results?

6bet, what hands would you assign to villain?

And would you call here?

Will post results very soon.

before you post results Dan, answer this question.

what hands do you rep here? What do you think he thinks your range is?

Although I am barely a winning player at live no limit, I'm reading this as QQ or possibly AQss. He raised pre, bet flop, checked turn hoping to induce a bet from you since you called the flop, then hit the Q on the river and shoved.
I agree with above, should have raised pre to narrow the field. We have all done this with AA and everyone folds and we only make $3 (I play mostly 1/3 nl), part of the game.

@Feel wrath -- I think you misread the turn action, V checks, Hero bets, pretty sure sets are in Hero's range.

yes, you're right - I misread it

Not calling here.

The only hands V could be bluffing here are missed clubs, and many of those contain a Q too that hit TP now.

He's repping spades/straights/QQ/Qx that hit 2p which are a lot more combos than busted clubs.

I have a feeling V showed up with some weird nonsensical garbage here though, lol.

Really? I got the feeling from an earlier post that OP folded.

Guess we'll find out soon.

Thanks for your responses guys.

I folded but villain was nice enough to show me his hand.
With no reads, however, I didn't really mind folding at the time.


Results:

Grunch.

I raise pf. I personally think Jacks is too good of a hand to limp and set mine with. Not horrible though. Possibly the best line for someone who does not play well postflop (not you).

I´m betting more on the turn since I think we are ahead and he can have a lot of outs here. Frequently he will have 30% or more equity against us. 1/2 pot here gives him correct odds to call with a good bit of his range and puts us in a tough spot on any club,spade or overcard river.

I think you got his starting stack or his river shove size wrong. Assuming he had $500 to begin, he has $395 when he checks to us on the turn.

Stack sizes are definitely awkward. Leaving a 1/2PSB behind puts us in a RIO situation. I´m tempted to shove and expect he might call with some of that range. Would be interesting to plug his calling range into an equity calculator.

looking at the results now I guess he decided to float because of your weak turn sizing. If we will fold to any queen on the river and his overcard outs are good he has like 10outs=20% equity and we gave him 3:1 on the turn. All kind of meh. In principal I don't like the spot we put ourselves in.

Edit: Also, if the river bricked, hard to imagine he calls our shove even though he claims to ''put us on a flush draw''

One of the big mistakes I made in the hand was not knowing the size of the pot nor the size of my stack on the turn. Pretty horrendous imo.

Board: 3c2c9sTs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 82.48% 82.48% 0.00% { JdJh }
MP3 17.52% 17.52% 0.00% { AJs+, KQs, KsJs, QsJs, AJo+, KQo }

With implied odds, and some bluffing outs I don´t think he would be incorrect to call the turn with this range.

Board: 3c2c9sTs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 66.32% 66.32% 0.00% { JdJh }
MP3 33.68% 33.68% 0.00% { AsKs, AcKc, AsQs, AcQc, KsQs, KcQc, AcJc, KsJs, KcJc, QsJs, QcJs }

This is the range I am thinking is possible given the action and which might call a overbet shove on the turn. They need 395/[250+395+395]=38% equity.

Maybe a lot of these hands barrel the turn, or based on what you said they might even c/r the turn, IDK.

Regardless, I like an overbet shove on the turn. Let him make a bad call if he wants to gamble. Solves the RIO issues. If he was getting tricky with an overpair or set then good for him.

p.s. I'm not very good at this equity stuff so prob. some mistakes.

Grunch- raise pre- turn as played you can shove or bet like 200 and never fold river...as played you prob have to fold as you are pretty much always beat...it's gross because it's only a half pot sized bet but still a fold IMO

Only a half pot sized bet... If you were V you just shrug rebuy if someone went backdoor flush on you when you can get tons of value from 2pr and lower sets in Heros range...

Meh reverse floating the turn with AKo is def FPS Heros range is pretty strong and it only is a half pot sized bet so hero only has to be right a quarter of the time...lol at him trolling you with I put you on a draw as if V wouldn't check to induce if he put you on a draw