Call. Your odds are too good to fold a disguised two pair. Even if your behind his range, it is still an odds call.

Raising is a bit too thin for value unless he is a fish but may be ok if you have an aggro river history with opponent.

Folding is terrible given that you only have to be good less than 25% of the time for your call to be profitable. Unless the guy is incapable of betting anything but sets, it's a call.

preflop good,m i like your hand and position and you have lots of steal equity...

flop cbet mandatory, good sizing...

he check called flop on a dry board with a K on it, tough to say what he would do this with based on your read other than sets, 2P, AK, so you check turn, correct... there is no value to gain here, draws are almost non-existent in villains range...

villain value bets river... you have a good hand but not versus villains range imo, plus you have very little invested here... trust your read, fold... ask him what he had...

also, when he balked on the turn, what specifically do you mean by that?? did it look like a tell mayhaps?

I must admit my analysis comes from a confusing discription of the table....

The table described as lots of limp calling weak tight....then the player is described as weak tight folds a lot to cbets...

I assumed his preflop limp call range was wide... (and then calls week tight after the flop, )

that would pre flop limp calling range him as Axs, A7+, 56s-aks, posably some non suited connectors, KQ AJ+ t8s-aqs 22-jj

If instead he is a tight player pre flop...his preflop range is 22-JJ....AQ+ AJs+ Kqs then its an easy fold on the river....as he now only has sets and AK on the river, after he bets...

When I say he balked, he checked slower/ more out of flow than before, you could tell he really wanted to donk the turn

^ Could you tell at the time that he really wanted to donk the turn, or are you just victim of hindsight bias?

Call the river and move on my friend. You lost the min. here.

x posted from Lets start a Cardrunners-EV study group for 1/2nl

ya i definitely felt when you mentioned this, and the turn putting a FD on board that he was afraid you wouldn't bet and catch your flush on the river.

did he grab his chips then check, or just pause check with the hand on felt...

It was like he was going for some chips and quickly changed his mind, had to have been paying attention to notice it.

Not so tough for me. You have 2 pair. I can easily call, but sometimes I might even raise to $100.

I think this is great analysis but it may be more suited for 2-5 or 5-10 logic. At 1-2 I can never find a fold here. Lot's of lousy players will do this with a junk A, like A7--or worse.

One of the things I find interesting in these forums is that most of the hands posted are losing hands. I think we figure this into our analysis at some level and it 'tighten's up' our view compared to what we would do at the table.

Yeah I agree. I'm really confused about why people are discussing folding here. My only thought is can I raise for value, or just call and win 90% of the time?

Against most players I would call. Some players I would min-raise to $80 and watch them sigh/call with KJ, 78, AJ, AQ, etc.

easy call, may even raise...

*Grunch
Just call OTR. Checking the flop isn't a bad idea.

I was wondering what balked was myself. This is more reason to put him on 77, 88, AK which are definitely in his EP limp calling range of 22-JJ , AJ+ and some broadway combos.

I would only min raise against a very good player who thinks donkeys min raise. otherwise I avoid min raise like the plague.

I think the only way we can raelly stack good, aggressive, players is to do things that make them believe we are donkey/fish. Most people on this forum classify 1-2 players as fish. In places like Las Vegas this is probably true. In places where the nearest casino is an hour away, and may be a small casino, then good players play 1-2. We must always seek to confound them so we set ourselves up for future wins against these better regulars.

Don't underestimate the hatred that you can build up against yourself from other players. It guarantees calls for stacks in the future.

Results? He either had 77 or 5-6, imo.

I maintain, though, that the range some of you all have established for him is too stringent. 1/2 players love to crack overpairs with suited connectors, and its a mistake to eliminate those from his limp/call preflop range.

I called and he flipped over 56 so...meh

Haha... you're completely right. That's what I get for posting just before going to sleep.

On the river:

To raise for value OTR you need one of the following:

1. To be ahead of more than 50% of the hands that villain calls with;
2. To induce a shove from worse.

Given the game you are playing (2) rarely happens. Let's look at at few ranges:

1. You beat 33% of {88-77, K8s-K7s, K4s, 87s, 84s, 65s, AKo, 87o, 65o}.
2. You beat 36% of {88-77,K8s-K7s,K4s,87s,84s,65s,AKo}.
3. You beat 47% of {88-77,K8s-K7s,K4s,87s,84s,65}
4. You beat 33% of {88-77,K8s-K7s,87s,65s}.
5. You beat 33% of {77, 87s, 65s, 87o, 65o}.
6. You beat 64% of {77, A8s-A7s, K8s-K7s, K4s, 87s, 65s, A8o-A7o, K8o-K7o, K4o, 87o, 65o}.

You can construct all different ranges according to how you think villain plays. If you think villain is more likely to have range (6), then you can raise for value. If you think villain is more likely to have a range similar to (1)-(5), then you should just call.

If you are unsure, it seems like calling is better since most reads lead to a range where your equity is below 50%, or slightly above 50%.

Given that you only need 28% equity to call, I think you should not fold.

Pre-Flop:

I like your raise, if you haven't been spewing, and you therefore have regular FE pre-flop and post-flop. If you can get villains to limp/fold PF or fold OTF with most of their range, and you can force the blinds to fold most of their range, then I like the raise PF.

On the Flop:

Villain can be calling PF with a number of different ranges. Looking over a few possibilities I find that villain frequently folds a range that has ~30% equity against you. For this reason, villain does not make a mistake by folding for $20 with the hands that normally fold (b/c he needs 44% equity).

However, I still think it is a good idea to c-bet to deny villain the 30% equity he has with his likely folding range. You could consider betting less so that he does make a mistake by folding with 30% equity (maybe look at a c-bet of ~$12).

Looking over the various ranges, I also find that a c-bet will win the pot ~55% of the time.

For both of these reason, I like you c-bet. If anything, I might change your sizing.

On the Turn:

I like your check.

No description on villain in OP? I think he's got a Kx type hand and is block betting/ betting the scare card A. Depending on villain's image/hero's table image I'm raising here especially after the turn goes check check unless there is a live tell/history.

Lol I just read spoiler. I think how to correctly play this hand relies solely on how villain plays. Is he loose passive?TAG?LAG? Aggressive bad?

If the table is limp/cally, then I'd probably rather just limp behind after two limpers preflop. But raising got us HU in position, so I'm fine with that too.

I also do a 1/2+ PSB cbet here and shutdown UI, so I play flop/turn the same way.

We can't fold two pair for a reasonable bet, so the question is whether or not to raise. I think I just call. AK is probably well within the range for this type of table. Sets and 65 could also play this way. There's only a few hands we're missing value from (K8/K7, which sorta seem unlikely unless suited, and A7).

GcluelessNLnoobG

kind of ironic. The fact that he had the nuts here actually justifies your call more than if he had 77. If he can have 5-6 here, he could also have 7-8, 9-10, 6-9s, even K8s, etc.

Good call, crappy result.

I don't think you can ever fold here. That's just so silly.
Raising otr seems a little thin to me too.

Only mistake I think you made was raising pre. A8s is a fine hand to play IP in a MW pot, especially since you're folding out worse flush draws.

Standard.