Quote:
Originally Posted by sierradave
I think this qualifies as a tough fold. It's a borderline situation, and I could definitely talk myself into a call some % of the time.
Problem is that I think we can rule out the possibility of him calling the turn in the hopes of bluffing the river. So when he calls on the turn, I think we can narrow his holdings down to decent kings (KQ-K10, I don't think he has any combos of AK in there if he's playing TAG and is a little tilted) and diamond draws. He shouldn't have any 4s in his hand unless he has quads or 4xdd. Maybe, maybe he has a combo of 56 that isn't also diamonds. He shouldn't be passively calling flop and turn with the inferior draw, but maybe he goes into passive-chaser mode once he's tilted.
We make money on the river from the Kx hands and from his bluffs with the busted straight draw. We have to figure that he puts us on at least Kx as well. How often do we think he's betting his Kx hand, trying to get us to fold rather than chopping with him? It's villain-dependent, but can't be 100%.
I don't love folding to a ~1/2PSB river shove. But I'm having a lot of trouble fitting this line (call flop, call turn, bet river once the draw comes in) to almost any hands that we beat.
This sums up the situation pretty well IMO.