$1/$2, full table in Vegas. 1st hand at table, not familiar with any players.

4 limp. I have 99 on the button.

Two limpers appear to be intoxicated. Last in has stack that is double max buy-in, all others near max buy-in.

I raise to $20.
SB calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop comes KJ9 rainbow.

SB checks. I bet $40. SB raises all-in ($220 to go).

Lay down or play?

snap.

call, there are so many hands he could have here from JT, KT, KJ, KQ, QJ... that he overvalues. Even if he has QT you still have 7/10 outs to catch up.

he basically never has JJ or KK here and at 1/2 you are way, WAY ahead of his shoving range here.

Fist-pump get it in.

This is a clear spot to call. I hate the 10x raise preflop with 99 though. Would rather you overlimp in that spot.

Why would you say that?

Snap call. If he has a bigger set, it's a cooler. (If he's a decent player, he should not have KK here, but you never know. If he thinks you are nitty tight, he might play KK for set value ) You have outs to QT.

Because in order for him to have JJ or KK he has to flat it out of position with 5 players, 4 out of those limper who are likely to come along.

You're dealt a pocket pair 1 time in 17. You flop a set 1 time in 8 of those. So you flop a set roughly 1 time in 136 hands that you play.

Think about all the times you would like to go to the felt, and think if this is one of them. If the flop came really nasty, like JT9 suited, you might consider folding; otherwise, folding a set on the flop is pretty bad.

Next time buy in for $180, and you don't even need to think 1 second about this, and it won't come up as often either. It's somewhat likely that in this case SB perceives he has some FE.

I think flatting JJ would be fine in this spot. Slightly better than folding. Obviously 3betting would be terrible.

I definitely prefer a raise over a btn open over several limper.

My thoughts on the pre-flop action:

If he had AA, KK or AK he would have most likely re-raised to isolate.

Any of QQ, JJ or TT, AQ, AJ, KT, KJ, KQ, AJ, QJ or a pocket pair down to 7s were most likely.

JT, QT were also possible, but I figured most unlikely due to them being so weak and him being in the SB.

I figured he would only 3bet the 3 hands I mentioned given the 5 remaining players behind him and his being out of position on later streets. The rest would be calls.

Now, what does he think I have?

Preflop
My oversized pre-flop raise might could indicate it wasn't AA or KK. Would I go all the way to $20 with only $11 in the pot - unlikely - looks like less than hands of this strength.

My most likely hands for me to have: QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, medium pocket pairs and maybe a few medium suited connectors.

When the flop hits, he checks and I bet $40 (into $50 pot).

I think my bet size narrows my range a bit. Medium pocket pairs and connectors are now unlikely (9T still possible). Would I go so big with QT here, possibly - but maybe 1/2 makes more sense to build with. Any hand with a K or J, as well as AA, would be protecting while building. Would QQ or TT bet so big - maybe not because of the overcard possibilites. JJ or 99 make sense - protecting and building.

My final decision

I thought JJ made the most sense for him. He check-raised and my hand range had only two hands that could put him behind. But, JJ is only one hand!

I called and he showed the JJ.

Open to any comments on my thought process.

If you fold here, you are playing in too big of a game. You flop bottom set heads up and get check raised all-in on the flop and want to fold?

where was the tough decision? call...

Lay it dowm because who knows what could come by the river. Just in case, play it safe and lay it down.

his range is mostly made up of AK's. call.

Am I misreading this HH, or did you flop a set? This isn't a tough decision, it's a snap-call. Sorry you got coolered or sucked out on.

When he shoves, run a lap around the table, high-five the dealer, and splash the pot with all your chips before his reach the middle. Snappiest of snap calls.

Edit: forgot to fist-pump first before you run a lap.

You're making a lot of suppositions about someone you never played with before. There's 4 ways he could have AQ suited, and three of them picked up a BDFD. Same with T8 suited. And possibly 1 way he has J9 suited, along with 2 ways for KJ suited.

His play with JJ is awful if you're capable of getting away from AK, which is his favorite hand for you to have, and actually A LOT more likely than 99. Candidate for weak tight label.

Grunch...

Let's eliminate QT in his range, as he rarely flats that in SB for $20. Same goes for KK.

He also probably doesn't play AK this way, although it's possible given the $40 PSCBET by you makes him feel like shoving for $160 more and ending the hand right here.

KJs is a possibility but you'd think he wouldn't call a 10x PFR with that hand in SB, but you never know the weird things people do.

So you're only really losing to JJ. I call.

Although unclear, it seems as if villain raised an additional $220.

Just read the results, yeah, JJ obv. Doubt I can still find a fold though, unless against the biggest of nits. I'm calling and hoping to get shown AK.

I find it amusing to think that people have put all sorts of broadway cards in a typical SB's 10x PFR calling range. I also find it amusing that people want to just limp OTB with 99.

Most of the time, his range is just really JJ/AK and for a lot of these recs won't even play AK this way on that flop given your PFR and extremely strong cbet.

Hero cbet $40, V makes it $220 to go, so both of us are apparently wrong. $180 more I think. Barely makes a difference imo though. His move screams a lot of strength.

This hand actually reminds me of a 2/5 hand I played last year, with exactly these hole cards and flop.. here it is:

Eff $500

Tightish guy in MP raises to $20, goes 6-way to the flop with Hero flatting $20 in CO with 99.

Flop ($120): KJ9r
MP checks, Hero bets $100, old rec guy next to me uncomfortably* calls, rest fold

Turn ($320): A (suit is irrelevant)
Hero bets $200, old rec guy shoves for $380 total, Hero calls

Old guy shows AKs for turned two-pair.


Ofcourse, the positions/no. of callers is different, but the idea is a lot of these guys aren't going bonkers on those flops with AK after someone bets ~PSB otf.

Grunch:

Against unknown drunks, I'd stack off here. Assuming they call pre-flop with T8o, T8s, J9s, J9o, QTo, QTs, K9o, K9s, KJs, KJo, KK+, AKs, AKo, then we have 66% equity against his range and we only need 28%. If you're behind, you've got 10 solid outs to a FH or better.

There's also 3 ways SB has KQ suited, and two of them picked up a BDFD.