1/2 Horseshoe Cincinnati.

It's 1 am, tables have been breaking for the past hour, and finally we are down to 3 from 6. My table seems reg infested, I was shooting the **** with half of them while waiting for a seat 5 hours ago. (Massive tourney going on, taking all the tables.) Table is playing tightly. Most hands are going to flop limped, pots are staying smallish, raises pre get HU to 3-way action at best.

V(400): Mid 30's black woman. From what I've seen, she's a tight passive. No pre flop raises in the past 1.5 hours. Limps to set mine. Called a river bet on a four card to a flush board, with a set of 44s (One of which was a club)... she won.
Flatted a pre-flop raise with AK (She had position on the guy). Flop hits her king, she calls 3 streets and loses to AA. (Mixed feelings about that one, the dude was opening week from MP, over valued TP, but hasn't shown the ability to bluff).

Hero (450): Not doing much at this table. Limping some, folding a lot. Only hand of note at this point was a blunder with AKs. Flatted a pre flop raiser. Flopped was monotone. Hero Floated, then raised his turn lead, then barreled again on the river only to be called by A-10 (Top pair, and A was not drawing to the flush)

Hero: 77
OTTH:

V(MP) raises to 12, Hero (MP+1) calls, 1 other caller.

Flop (39): 7 5 2

V leads 35, hero flats, other dude folds.

Turn (109): J
V leads 50, Hero raises to 150, V shoves, Hero snap fist pump calls.

Any thoughts. Slow play was good? A raise on that flop screams set to an over pair right, and allows AK to get out cheaply?

Most hands are going to flop limped, pots are staying smallish

Which is when I no longer stick around & beat my head against the wall trying to beat the rake that eats my tiny profits outta' each small pot I win.

OTTH: 1. This isn't a small pot! 2. I've never "fist pumped" when shoving before

Definitely sounds like set over set. I like the play. Did he turn a set of J's?

Doesn't get much more standard than this.

Given profile, I would probably raise flop.

J/Q/K/A on turn could devalue your hand against 99/TT and so forth.

Played well.

Well played, IMO. Not enough 99-TT type hands in V's range for me to want to raise flop as Richard Parker suggests.

call flop. Raising only folds out everything we beat.

When a tight player shoves over the top I'm never fist pumping happy but she probably has JJ.

nh (sorry you got coolered)

You guys are assuming that V's going to barrel with Ax/Kx. Most don't.

A/K on turn would obviously add value to V's Ax/Kx range, but at the same time, they devalue against V's 99 - QQ range.

The flat is fine. If you range her on AA or KK than it won't really mater what you do.

Raising flop makes her cautious on turn. You got a good turn card though.

If villain isn't going to barrel with Ax / Kx than they are just going to fold flop - but are drawing dead. Why not give them a chance to hit one of those cards.

IF villain has a hand like 99-QQ than I suppose a flop raise could be better, but I think calling flop is going to be better in most scenarios.

RP is right, clear raise on the flop.

Go back to the OP's read and break it down.


A raise pre-flop and a c-bet on this board from this villain strongly suggests she has at least TT. No turn card can help her "catch up" in a way that translates into more money for you. I think her range is heavily skewed away from AK/AQ/KQ and strongly toward big pocket pairs. Therefore, a big card on the turn will lose more money from 99-QQ than it will gain from the miniscule percentage of AK's in her range.

She's not folding, so shoveling money in when you have the nuts is probably the right thing to do.

I'll take my chances. We have position on her and the flop is dry with no draws in her range. We have the nuts on the flop and everything (so far) is in our favor.

We really have no reason to raise (unless you are afraid of an overcard killing the action) and we started the hand 200 bb's deep so there is plenty of room to get more bets out of her without shutting her down.

Perhaps - but why not let her continue to shove money in the pot if she is willing?

If she isn't raising a hand like 88-TT she probably has QQ+ or AK.

I suppose she is never folding QQ+ on the flop but donks do the darnedest things.

My standard move here on a super dry board, is to wait and smack em on the turn. I don't think she has the gumption to raise pre with less that JJ+ here, maybe its even QQ+. No way she's the type a player looking forward to playing 99 OOP. My read was, she's either got a big dawg she's willing to fight for, or not. Lets get her to commit herself a bit more on the turn, and then pull out the big guns.

But I posted this hand to hear exactly what you and RP are saying. The different opinions are interesting.

Are you throwing 90 at her on the flop?

Every turn card is either neutral, or bad for us in some way. It's not like she's sitting there feeling uncomfortable about 6's and we need her to catch up. She doesn't have AK. Go re-read the description in the OP. Read it 50 times if you have to. She didn't raise pre and bet the flop without a pair. That's not what "passive" players do.

"taking your chances" that this villain picked this spot to jump way out of character and bluff the flop with ace high, into two guys, from out of position, is seriously bonkers.

She didn't stay up til 1am waiting for Aces just to fold them as soon as one dude raises. She likes her hand...make her pay to keep playing it.

see red

raise flop. a tight player just bet pot on a pretty dry board and she doesnt like to fold big hands.

it's not the biggest mistake ever, but it sucks if she has KK-QQ and an A comes OTT and she shuts down.

You flopped top set, against a clear overpair, on the driest possible board. on top of that, you have a villain who will likely never fold.

If LLSNL is all about getting fat value, then it would be a tremendous failure if you don't stack this b1tch.

75 on the flop, 125 on the turn, 200 on the river. If you're just flatting the flop, then how do you plan to get the last 350 in over the next two streets?

By raising the turn, as OP did?

Look, I get what everyone is saying about her likely having a made hand here. But OP's reads in the OP did not talk about her getting sticky versus raises. She was a station in presumably single-bet streets, including the four-flush/set hand. There are no draws we could conceivably raise here.

What is more likely, that she has TT-QQ and gets scared and c/f a weird card on the turn, or; the combination of her having AK and potentially catching or double barreling the turn, plus the possibility of AK/TT-QQ type hands slowing down and refusing to stack off when we raise this driest of dry flops?

Dude, this isn't complicated. What hands can she have? What hands within that range might slow down on a bad turn card?

Ask yourself this on the flop....is it more likely she is afraid of the board now, or after the turn card? It's a simple question with a simple answer. She's less likely to pay off on the turn than she is on the flop.

Ok, so OP raised the turn and can now play for stacks. That's great, but what if she has 99 or TT and she's now done betting? What if the turn card was an A and it shuts down almost her entire range. What if the turn card scares her?

There's like 175 BB's left to play on the turn. How do you reconcile the notion that she'll stack off over two streets with a single pair, but will also crap her pants and fold that same pair if you raise the flop? It makes no sense.

Alright Spex... always appreciate your input, even the aggressive condescending nature of it. Makes me laugh thinking about how annoyed you must be that this is even a question lol.

So I'll finish this one off with this. I won the hand, she had kings. As I called her shove she asked if I had aces.

Reasoning for my move is this, blast it if you want:

She's tight passive, and hates giving up with a hand that was good at one point, and she has put a bunch of money in. She spent the past 5 hours building a 250 or so profit. I wanted to let her put money in on the turn with the idea that once she's put in about 25% of her stack, she isn't throwing it away. She can't just dump 100 into a pot and run, no way not with KKs on that board (She says to herself).
And thats exactly what happened, she said "F this" I'm smashing you with a shove.
I've never raised a drive flop when Heads Up have hit a set. I'll start trying it sometime soon against the right opponents and see what happens.
Bad behavior can be reinforced by good results, so hence the post and desire for input.

Thanks guys for your thoughts.

What you guys don't get is that against KK/AA, hands play themselves.

Against 99-QQ, different story.

Lol... thats a good point. I bet if I raise the flop, she spazz shoves here.
Bet she dumps her 99-JJ though. She's not going to war for those.
Sometimes its the simplest posts that do it.

LOL, let me guess.

You would fold to her cbet in similar instances if you have AK?

If you're so certain that she can't continue with less than KK, and her opening range is 99+, then this hand is completely irrelevant in grand scheme of things.

Obviously call any of her raises HU and raise all her cbet.