Hero stack: 300

villain : 550 or so( old guy prob 65-70) has understanding of game , over values TPTK

playing a 2/3 at my local casino.

all folds to me from MP, i raise make it 15 to go with AQo, few more folsd to villain who flats.

Flop comes A Q 9 rainbow(pot is around 35)

i make it 25, he flats.

Turn is 7, spades have a flush draw now(pot is around 85)

i make it 45, he flats

River is a 9 spades didnt get there(175= pot)

i make a thin value bet of 55( really thin i know but maybe he was just slow playing a monster?)

he raises me to 115

HERO?
easy fold here?

easy fold, he got there dont pay him off

$60 call into a $345 pot? Easy fold?

I'm not sure I'd fold even if he flashed his hand and I thought I saw a 9.

This is why math shouldn't be used as much at the lower levels. What does he do this with that's not beating you?

given your description that he over values hands id call pretty quickly. he can have an ace here.

And here's why MATH MUST BE USED:

Assume he raised only $10. Would you fold? $20? $30? At what price do you fold? Explain how you decide WITHOUT MATH.

Also, I've been playing poker 40 years and I've NEVER SEEN SOMEONE MISREAD THEIR HAND. Well, maybe once.

I think I am missing something here.

Bet more on the turn. And against this villain, river bet doesn't seem that thin of value.

The post you quoted is not an argument for not using math at the lower levels. If you think villain never has a hand we beat, then you use the same math and apply it to a different range, is all.

So the guy saying call $65 more to win $345 is looking at that spot saying we need only to be good about 15% if the time to justify the call, and that he thinks we are good that often. Otoh, you are putting the villain on a range of trips+, and saying we are good 0% of the time, which, being less than the roughly 15% we need to break even, requires that we fold.

See? Your argument with him is not over the math, it is over the correct range to assign the villain.

As to the hand: if we have seen villain bluff in any similar spot, we should call, and if we haven't, we should fold. This is not a spot where villain will mistakenly over value a hand. Either he got there with a 9 or a flush or he is trying to bluff raise us off a chop.

would of bet more like 60-65 on turn
as played, easy river call

No flush possible.

Ez call bet more

I noticed a marked increase in my winrate when I just submitted to the math.

I can't tell you how many times I was "sure" I was beat but I made the call because of the math (i.e. I only have to be good here 15% of the time to be profitable...) and lo and behold, villain didn't have it.

River here is super easy call.

incidentally, bet more on turn, around $60ish.

Remember, our V's are not playing perfect +EV poker. Our villains make a bunch of mistakes. For instance,

V has a weak ace and figures that he and Hero chops with the Q (this happens all the time)
V missed his draw

anyways, make the crying call, no way i'm folding here for $65 more when the pot is this big.