Hero $1100 - Up about $300 - Been pretty quiet the past 2 hours as I was card dead.

Lady - $600 - she is in a few buy ins of $300 - $300 and $500. She generally dumps it as i've played with her before but takes some strange lines. She got JJ vs AA all in a few hours ago - and lost

Some guy $2500 - he folds turn bet.


Hero is CO with AT and goes $25 over some guy limp
Lady in SB calls
Some guy calls mid position

$80
T35
Hero goes $50
Lady calls
Some guy calls

$230
4
Check
Check
Hero goes $175
Lady calls
Guy folds

$580
9

Lady checks
Hero?

Should I do a dumb bet like $150
Or should I just jam for the $350?
Or should I check?

I really only get value from JT QT or KT. I can maybe get her off a chop of AT? I get value owned by poorly played JJ+ - but not sure what is the best line on river.

Can’t stack someone by checking back

All in

How did the JJ hand play out? Was she the opener or did she 3bet it? All in pre or did they see a flop with it? I’m more inclined to check it back if I saw her flat JJ pre but in game I would probably shove and try to stack a weaker 10

As played, I like a smaller value bet, as she does take strange lines.

Turn - the only flop draws made a pair OTT, still not much to protect so I'd go smaller.

Maybe it would have been better to bet a bit bigger on the flop. I don't think your opponents have many threes or fives in their range, and so the stuff you'd get called with would be TP and draws, which I think would call ~$65. Although maybe they would call a smaller bet with stuff like KQ. And maybe a bigger bet would make it harder to get value on future streets. There's also the issue of being balanced, but I suspect that isn't necessary in this situation.

I like the turn bet. There's definitely value to be had from weaker top pairs. The four couldn't have helped Lady's range much. I don't see much of a risk of getting re-popped, given that there aren't many draws on the board and she seems like a loose-passive.

Yup, value to be had from JT, QT and KT. I think she'd play each street the way she played them with those hands. She could have overpairs, sets, or T9 for two pair, but I think each of those need to be discounted somewhat because she hasn't bet or raised.

24 combos of JT, QT and KT
6 combos of AT
21 combos of JJ+
13 combos of sets
1 combo of T9s

But there's a lot we need to discount.
- JTo, QTo, and KTo probably need to be discounted somewhat. Maybe by 50%? Same with ATo?
- I'd probably discount JJ+ by 75%. Even for a passive player.
- I'd discount sets by maybe 50%. Mostly because of the river. I wouldn't be surprised for a passive player to check-call the flop and turn with sets, but I'd expect a bet on that river, because she should fear you checking back. Same with T9s.

Updated number of combos:
- 15 combos of JT, QT and KT
- 4 combos of AT
- 5.25 combos of JJ+
- 7 combos of sets or two pair

Pretty close call, but with my assumptions, it's a check back. It depends a lot on the assumptions though.

I would just jam and hope she can't fold JT. Turn bet seems a bit large, but it set up nicely for a shove.

I dont think a shove gets called by worse so I dont like that play. Weird spot because any thin bet is going to give you odds to call it off anyway...sizing of flop and turn got you there.

Its close but I think a check makes more sense since you have already gotten two good streets.

Jam. It's less than 2/3 pot. If she's always folding TPGK here, take note.

It would help to know a little more about how she's losing. Is she just calling down or is she getting unlucky?

Check back unless you have a strong read of calling station. She can be trapping with a set or a straight on this rainbow board. Many live players will play all combos of 67 pre and call the flop with it. With the sets, that's already something like 25 combos, not to mention A2, 54s, 34s, T9. Plus this isn't exactly equivalent to having AQ on Q3549, as she can have more overpairs that she played passively pre.

The problem we have here is that if she is semi-reasonable postflop, she can only have 32 or so combos of worse top pair to potentially call a river shove. Also, from a game theory standpoint, we're basically never bluffing here, since two players called the flop and we barreled a card that (a) completed the rainbow, and (b) is good for their ranges. That means that our value range needs to be stronger, since our opponents can't put us on a flushdraw and hero.

So yeah, if your read is that she calls off with A4 and 77 here, then go for it, but if you think she's only calling with TP+, then you should check back.

Yeah id jam, she is calling with her whole range, so basically if the river isnt value, the turn wasnt either.

Wat. How do you know? I've definitely seen live players fold Tx face up here.

Im leaning towards a check in this spot. Hard to imagine we can get called by anything worse if we shove (unless if she is a calling station like stated above), you are repping so little bluffs here betting into 2 players for 2 streets if any at all. If we bet small maybe 150ish, we are still pot committed if she decides to jam (when she does that, we are almost never good) I like the bet on the flop but I would check the turn for pot control, especially since both Villains called on such a dry board, with the chance for middle position to be trapping. Plan to call most rivers, and if it checks around for 3rd time, I would bet big on the river.

I'll bet 325 so she'll be tempted to reload again in case she wasn't planning on it.

+1. Verbal announcement of all-in can scare her into a fold

30 pre, but w/e. nice sizing post. much to like about a 325 river.

gotta value these rivers against described V. sounds like a station. with a 345x out there she should be raising all sets and 2pr ott to protect. looks like she's committed with a JT/QT hopefully not T9s.

never underestimate a tilting player's ability to read you for AK and call 56 either

I probably just ship it here and hope for calls from Tx. She’s highly unlikely to check a set three times, and she doesn’t have many 2 pairs or straights.

Does she ever play an over pair this way? I doubt it.

I have a strong feeling V has JJ here.

Bet, but don't shove. Psychologically shoving looks scarier to V of this type, and she's not going to be the kind who thinks "shove=weakness and non-shove=strong."

I kind of like the "same bet" line OTR here. Way more likely she looks us up with Tx that way, and then we lose less against her somewhat likely JJ.

Your image in V is a factor here. If she sees you a tight player, just bet small for value, I would bet $100 to get a crying call. Otherwise, go allin, she could call very light even 77 or 66.

I'm going small say 100-150$. Want that thin value that I expect may fold to a shove


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