Can someone help me set up an equity calculation for the following...

1/2 NL with a $5 straddle on the button.
V1 SB -$65 - Asian Lady
V2 EP - $150 - Loose passive regular
Hero - CO $150 - No image
V3 - Button $200 - No image

Pre flop
SB limps for $5
EP limps for $5
Hero looks down at 34 and makes it $20 in a blind steal attempt.
Button calls $20, SB and EP call.... Ugh....

Flop $80
A2J
V1 pushes for $45
V2 calls $45
Hero calls $45
Button pushes for $200
V2 calls
Back to hero.. Pot is $415, I have 85 left...

Ranges
V1 has a big ace.. Never on a draw.
V2 --- This is the one I don't know. Could have a set, top two, or any diamond draw.
V3 - Sets and two pairs only.. Never on a draw.

Additionally, there is a $500 straight flush bonus in play. I have two shots at that, so my equity there is about $25..

Please help with how to set this up with so many hands in play.. What is the weighted percentage of V2 having a diamond draw, vs having a "made hand" ?

Are you asking whether you need to call or not? That's an obvious answer; call. You need the poker stove app and you should plug your ranges in. You are calling 85 to when 500, you only need 17% equity.

Next time you are going to steal a straddle make it larger and don't do it with 4 high unless your damn sure they'll fold.

MY MISTAKE.. The J was a CLUB.. Sorry...

Never on a draw? They never have a made flush here?

This is a super easy call with that many chips in the middle.

You did very well just calling the $45 IMO as you don't want to force out the bigger stacks in case V1 has a flush already.

Forget the SF bonus .. People lose lots of money thinking about BBJ and such.

The odds of Flopping a flush are less than 1%. So the odds of 2 people Flopping a flush are ... ??? Less than that. That's all you need to know here ... call, call, call. GL

PS .. Not sure what a 'blind steal attempt' is, but you had limpers and one of them was a short stack. You would be better off raising to $30 here leaving the ability to shove into the others if the short stack shoves into you. This is still a spew, but a better way to spew!!

Certainly a less friendly spot, but it's still an easy call .. You should pick up the other 3 5s as outs now as well.

If another big stack has a flush draw then obviously you are drawing thin, but there are enough times in the long run that you will be the only flush draw in the side pot to warrant calling EVERY time. GL

i dont understand how someone could do what you did pre and then consider folding now

Trying to steal with no image and when a player has limped with 12bb behind. Probably not ideal.
AP it's a call.

Two statisticians are on a plane. One says to the other "Don't tell anyone but I have a bomb in my shoe." The other says "What?? Are you insane?? What are you thinking??" The first says "The odds of one passenger on a plane having a bomb is remote enough, the odds against two passengers having a bomb on the same plane must be astronomical."



I'm still calling as played, your 12 outs can be good half the time and it would still be a profitable call, but preflop is really spewy. Raise more if it's likely to get folds, or more likely just fold if it's not.

I never considered folding.

The question is more of a math and combo question.

If we know V1 has AX (Never JJ, 22, AA)
And we know that V3 has AA, JJ, 22, AJ, A2
Then how many combos are left for V2 to have 22, AJ, AT+, A2, J2 (but never AA) vs any two diamonds.

That is the question I am asking. And I don't know how to set up that in pokerstove to give combos (and therefore weighted percentages)

You generally don't need to worry about combos when using pokerstove, it computes that automatically. Just plug in the possible hands everyone can have and hit go.

I'd be wary of making so many assumptions though.

In my limited experience in 1/2, I think it's always fair to assign 5-10% to ATC in any situation!

I don't get it. With a $5 straddle and two limpers, why raise only to $20?

As played, ship it after V2 calls V1's push.

Okay.. i will try to muddle through math myself.

There are 57 unique DD hands left after we take out the 2 diamonds i am holding.

worst case for me (as far as card removal goes, V1 and V2 have JJ and AA), that leaves 1 top two pair combo, 11 top pair combos, 3 top and bottom, and 6 remaining set combos, right? Total of 21 combos.

So if we are set over set. And V2 has EITHER a big made hand or two diamonds he is 1-21/78 = A little better than %75 of the time going to be on a flush draw.

Is that about right?

And is this WORST case for me (from a card removal, combo, perspective).?

Nice .. but BYOB doesn't apply to ...

All those folks trying to get their guns through security must think the same thing .. it's all about intent. GL

Math!

To calculate your equity of a range here's a basic example and you can build your equation around this:

Say you have KK. Villains range is AA and QQ.

Flop is A 6 4.

He has 3 combos of AA and 6 combos of QQ.

AA is 98% you are 2%

QQ is 10% you are 90%

Total combos of villains range is 9. 3 Out of 9 times you have 2% equity. 6 out of 9 times you have 90% equity.

1/3(.02)+2/3(.90)=.0067+.6 = ~61%.

EV calc bonus!

100 in pot, villain bets 100, EV of call?

EV of final pot - cost = Total EV

300(.61) - 100 = +83.

For YOLOs.

If villains range is AA, AK, 63, QQ and you have KK. You are still +2 EV. That's why I never fold.

Either get really good at doing this in your head, or just go HAM on a range calculator and do some equity calcs at home so you get a general feel for EV when you are at a table without having to crunch the numbers. I like http://www.propokertools.com/simulations best since it's free, it's online, and once you get used to the syntax it's fast.

Edit: It also seems as if your asking if you should account for card-removal effects when multiple villain ranges are similiar. Like if you have KK, one player has AA, QQ, JJ the other player has AA, AK, QQ. For that, the calculations are going to be a lot more intricate since you will have to do a calculation for each hand in each range and then divide it by the probability of each of those events occuring and add up the total probability. For my example you will end up with 6 equations to put together to divide by probability of each event occuring. My advice is: don't do that. I don't think it's going to change your equity calcs enough when multiple villains ranges are more than 2 hands each.

Thread title checks out.

Op bloating straddled pots with 4 hi in a game littered with shortish stacks is, while interesting and perhaps fun, not exactly a profitable endeavor. But you got heart kid.

1 out twice to the straight flush is roughly 4%. So your bonus equity is .04*500=$20.

You are calling 85 to win 415+20=425. Thankfully there is a SFD BONUS because you are getting exactly 5:1 otherwise you would have been getting the very unround figure if 4.9:1. So you need about 17% equity to make the 85 call break even.

So pull up your equity calculator and give your villain's a range. Keep adding pairs and sets and removing flushes and fives to/from their ranges and clicking the calculate button until you your equity is 20%.

That's what most people do.

3 EP limps in straddle pot. Look down at 34s and make sweetener raise. Get multiple calls.

Flop top 10% of flops for our **** hand.

Consider folding.

-> profit???

You need to worry much less about the equity calcs of your flop call and much more about how you got there, because it's pretty terrible.

POTD