10/25 FR

Villain in this hand is a reg with a tendency to tilt, he hasn't sat down for long but I get the impression he is already tilting.

When he tilts he tends to inflate pots and barrels a ton, although every time he has been called down recently he has shown better than one pair (some of those spots were really thin though).

Hero has lost a couple of small-to-medium sized pots recently and might appear to be a little tilty although I think my image is still straightforward and pretty tight.

Preflop: One limper, villain raises to 150 from EP, button calls 150, I call in the SB with AQ, BB folds limper calls. Nothing crazy to note about other villains. My impression is that he is opening pretty wide from this spot, including all suited aces and broadways, pairs, suited connectors and one gappers.

Effective stacks are 4.5k.

Flop (625): A84 Checks to villain who bets 400, button folds, I call, original limper folds.

Turn (1425): 6 I check, villain makes it 1200, I fold?

On turn with 4k back I feel that fold > shove > call, I don't expect a shove to fold anything better but he's going to call a lot of draws. He has AK, aces up, 86/64/57 and every set for better in his range and heart / diamond / straight draws for worse (and maybe AJ/AT if he is really tilting), and I think if you weight combinations by equity it's probably a -EV or breakeven shove.

However if I fold here against described villain I'm guessing pf is best as a fold? I don't really like folding the flop

3bet pre if he is opening that wide

Borgata 10/25? 3bet pre is def something id be leaning towards to.

This spot is very villain dependent (obv). It should also matter how he views you and any possible history you guys may have. I agree that shoving is prob better than just calling but i fold in this spot (with your image). It would be closer if you guys were heads up going into the flop but you have to give the villain more credit for cbetting into the field. It sucks bc your hand is def face up after just calling that flop and he correctly should barrel the turn with all of his draws.

Yea 3b pre imo as played I have no idea ott.

This is a pretty interesting spot and you description of villian applies to a lot of the regs and I wouldn't play this the same vs all of them. I disagree with the 3bet pre as you are pretty much just isolating yourself against better hands. I am pretty torn between all 3 options, and since this is purely a villian dependant scenario we really need a better description as someone like Gary I would still probably fold too, but Blackman I would hate to fold this. I think with your image though you can pretty safely fold all rivers. I hate being so wishy washy, I really don't mind fold with your image too much but I def wouldn't tell anyone if they knew you were folding this they will abuse you. I can see a lot of regs firing a second barrell with:
Aj and occassionally less
Occassionally air
Either fd

I am pretty sure call is your worse option even though I think you can safely fold all rivers. With a raise, you may get ak to fold, or a hand like Axd to call so raise or fold is def close, but because of your image and villians, I am going to give the slight nod to an AI.

Call > shove > fold. Any decent capable 10/25 reg aside from the nits, ie Gary are definitely going to 2 barrel this turn w pretty much their entire range. I don't see a merit in shoving. I'd call most clean rivers too, ESP. when we have the top of our range my god easy auto 3B pre ESP just under 200 bb deep, half the reason u 3bet aq oop is so you don't end up in a spot like this where it has become a guessing game. By not 3betting pre not only do you lose value long term and initiative pre but you basically allow your opponent to play perfectly, that is he's almost always going to triple you off a perceived max range of aq sometimes dbl you off and there isn't **** you can do about it... But as played def call call more often never folding turn v capable player.

The problem with calling on turn is villian has tons of cards he can rep on river, and isn't likely to value town himself which is why I would rather just get it in now rather than play a guessing game. If villian has ak give him a tough decision, if he has 2pair/set you are probably going broker anyways.
As for 3bet pre oop, this has to be marginaly profitable at best. I would rather just see a flop, you know if A hits there is 90% chance villian cbets and you are going to be good at least that %. I have played plenty of 3bet pots from the blinds in this game with ak/aq and pretty much when I hit I got no action and when I didn't I was playing a bloated pot with little equity. I even remember one sick multiway pot where I flopped trips and still had to fold.

Fold or 3! AQ OOP...

i would've led the turn to avoid this mess...

as played, shove.

Donk bet flop. If you don't like that, donk bet turn. It confuses villains and keeps your range wide.

I guess shoving turn isn't bad, but the only reason I'd probably just call is because if villain is betting turn w/ a bluff he probably has less equity than you think.. maybe just oe or gs and he's going to rep the flush on river too. Your hand looks like an Ace and if he didn't want to bet-call a shove he'd probably try to see the river, but maybe he can easily bet-fold his bluffs. Plus you give him a chance to shove all his bluffs on the river that he's folding on the turn. What value hands is he chking back on this flop vs. barreling? Does he bet bottom pair 3-ways on flop? I guess I could see 57 maybe... sets and AX two pairs. Now that i think about it, I'd probably be more tempted to call the river when a flush card hits than a brick... but I'm probably just calling all rivers :\ . FDs are likely to chk back turn in this spot in pos too no?

calling turn, calling all rivers. Folding is pretty nitty against villain as described. Shoving is fine but probably folds out bluffs he'd fire river on. If you have stationy history shoving is good.
Like pf/flop.

I call the turn with the intention of reevaluating if he shoves river and calling most rivers. The turn bet sizing makes me think he wants to get you off of a weak A or flush draw. Not sure if that is standard but 1200 turn bet into 1425 is pretty big and if you are viewed as tight why wouldn't he bet 9ish or so to get value from big hands.

I see the logic in shoving the turn so as to protect against potential draws but he's probably between a 2:1 and 4:1 dog with his draws and in the 2 of 3 times he misses he's going to shove the river a high percentage, especially if he's tilting. I was actually in the reverse situation today as the aggressor and tried to get a guy off of KQ on a Q high board, missed, and shoved river only to get called.

If anyone can make a mathematical argument for calling turn/calling river vs. shipping turn that would be interesting.

he's only shipping with the goods on river given stack sizes.

He has a pot sized bet left on the river. I think a lot of villians are going to put you on the type of hand you have and shove the river here even if they miss. What makes you think he's only shipping if he has it? If I was in his shoes I'm shipping the river a large % of the time I miss since it's hard for OP to have much better than a pair here and I would think I could get him off a weakish A (AJ/AT) and pair/draw type hands like 89h, 9Th, etc. On top of that the read is that he's tilting in which case he's shoving his entire range here IMO.

All decisions are based on villains tendencies obv but to break it down...

On the turn folding vs calling depends on whether or not he's doubling with most of his range or mostly only value hands and hands with good equity.

Shoving turn depends on how often u think he will bluff river with his entire turn betting range vs giving up.

I respect anyone who's name is based on a Curb quote.

this reply is spot on.

So far the responses have been varied, which suggests the spot isn't that standard. Ignoring pre, on the turn so far the arguments are:

call - let him bluff off on the river. However, calling gives all his draws free cards and he might check back on the river when he misses and bets when he hits. So we lose value against draws.

ship - he calls off all his draws, gives him a hard time with AK. However, he has an easy decision with mediocre TP-type hands and we lose value from his bluffs.

fold - his range is heavily value weighted at this point, and there is no fold equity.

I don't think he doubles this turn given action so far without any equity, and I don't believe he bluffs me on the river if he misses, so imo ship > call simply because we get value from his draws and he has very little pure air.

fwiw I don't like leading at any point in this hand.

Anyway,

How will he react to a 3b pre from you?